The surprise & consternation expressed by many that @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost are insisting on the role of the ECJ being eliminated from all aspects of Northern Ireland is odd.
Everyone has known this is the UK position, since at least December 2019.
What’s up?
A🧵/1.
.@Conservatives manifesto had a whole section on Brexit.
Famously (or infamously) the centrepiece & overwhelming message of the Conservative campaign was that they would “get Brexit done” with @BorisJohnson’s “oven-ready deal”. /2.
To be sure, that “deal” was the Withdrawal Agreement (including Northern Ireland Protocol), not the later Trade & Cooperation Agreement which was rammed through the House of Commons a year later, in December 2020. The WA/NIP was hailed as “great” by @Conservatives. /3.
And the manifesto said, unequivocally, the UK (no exceptions) would be kept out of the single market, any form of customs union & the role of the ECJ would be ended.
There was never any doubt about these commitments. They had to be red line UK demands of the EU. Right? /4.
So what’s the fuss?
Let’s go back to the 2019 election campaign.
The promises were dishonest. Impossible. Everyone involved knew it.
How so? /5.
The WA/NIP, already fully drafted, agreed & signed before the campaign started, made clear that, whatever the TCA ended up saying, NI would (let’s not quibble on technicalities) stay in the SM for goods, many CU rules would stay for NI, & there would be ECJ jurisdiction. /6.
In principle, the TCA, coming nearly a year later, could have kept the whole UK (or just NI) in all aspects of CU & SM. That would, of course, have broken the manifesto promise. /7.
The TCA couldn’t remove the whole UK of GB & NI from all aspects of CU & SM. That would have breached the WA/NIP. And required a customs & regulatory frontier across Ireland. Which, unless you’re a sophist of a shameless variety, wrecks the Good Friday Agreement. /8.
This is a pretty standard discussion of options (@MichelBarnier’s step diagram set them out for the UK as a whole). And that’s all very well. But the Conservative Party manifesto & their entire @BorisJohnson-fronted campaign was only compatible with one (extreme) outcome. /9.
That is:
- complete removal of the whole UK of GB & NI from the SM & any kind of CU
- no ECJ involvement whatsoever
Those conditions are neither compatible with the WA/NIP, not the TCA negotiated by @DavidGHFrost after the election. /10.
Remember, both the TCA & WA/NIP were negotiated, agreed, signed & forced through the House of Commons by @BorisJohnson’s government. The Conservative Party & government, fronted by Mr Johnson (assisted by Lord Frost) breached their most prominent, core manifesto commitments. /11.
They insisted on arrangements which:
- kept part of the UK in key aspects of the SM & CU
- as a consequence, maintained substantial ECJ jurisdiction
Bizarre. A massive betrayal of everyone who voted Conservative in 2019. /12.
So, is the shock & confusion caused by the fact @BorisJohnson@DavidGHFrost & their Conservative Party drove a coach & horses through their own manifesto, enshrining in international law the sellout of their voters? And the fact no one cared? /13.
Or is it that they’re now trying to reverse that, trashing the rule of law & UK reputation in the process?
Either way, it’s the pits. Politically, legally, ethically. Beyond atrocious. /14.
And, either way, let’s be honest with each other.
It’s always all been there in black & white.
Dishonesty. Treachery. Pure self-interest. Nothing else.
What else did you expect?
Don’t act surprised now. /15. End
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If the US is anything other than fully committed, at great scale and in the pre-eminent leadership role, in NATO, Europe, the US and the world face disaster.
Bookmark that. /1.
More importantly, stop this madness.
There isn’t a way out of this, any more than there is a way of avoiding gravity on the surface of the Earth.
Cutting down US military presence in Europe has been a huge mistake. Successive US administrations are guilty. /2.
That needs to be reversed. It’s a large part of the reason for the mess we’re in. Globally, as well as in Europe.
Waiting a couple of years into a world war before committing to do anything about it is a stupendously bad idea, and grotesquely costly in lives and treasure. /3.
Donald Trump saying “Ukraine is finished” once again, starkly, highlights the question of what the world’s first & only (with the possible exception of Britain), & still remaining, hyper power would do geopolitically under his leadership.
But it isn’t just about Trump.
A 🧵/1.
I’ll be unashamedly Eurocentric.
There’s a broader & deeper story, of course. But Europe is a vital part of it.
The decision the USA has to make, as it did in the 1940s, & repeatedly at intervals after that, is whether it cares about Europe, & if so how much of it, & why. /2.
Does that include all of western Europe? Does it extend to central Europe? And eastern Europe? If so, should Ukraine be part of what the USA cares about (in the 40s that didn’t really play a role, given Ukraine’s status within the USSR)? And if so, how much of Ukraine? /3.
Brexit ripped us out of our $19 trillion GDP domestic market & reduced us to one a 6th of it, thumped our economy, fractured the UK, threw our governance into chaos, & generated perilous geopolitical effects.
And (if you mean it seriously) wildly naive about what actually takes place, legally (although you’d say “in my opinion this is unconstitutional”: good luck!) in the USA.
Still, if we just look at England/UK: yes, there are many concerns. /1.
I never said or, I hope, implied (to a fair, reasonable reader) that there weren’t.
For example (not the subject of my already long 🧵which focused on the way criminal incitement & freedom of expression relate) I personally deeply dislike revocation of citizenship. /2.
But you know that’s a thing in the USA as well, including for natural born citizens.
Involuntary self-revocation (in the guise of “voluntary relinquishment”) of citizenship sounds about as Kafkaesque as it gets.
But there it is, lurking malignantly in the Land of the Free. /3.
Twitter’s full of people trumpeting near zero understanding of English law or of the convictions in respect of the violence of the last 10 days or so.
Nor does the US 1st Amendment mean what many (often Americans) seem to think.
Frustrated? Maybe this will be some use.
A🧵/1.
“Incitement” was an offence under English common law pretty much forever.
In 2008 the Serious Crime Act 2007 replaced common law “incitement” with statutory offences of encouraging or assisting crime.
Incitement in respect of specific statutory offences remains. /2.
“Assisting” means roughly what you probably think it does. But, for clarity, it doesn’t require direct presence at the scene of the crime being “assisted”, or actions which are themselves part of that crime: if they assist the commission of it, that’s a criminal act itself. /3.