Sleepwell🛌 Profile picture
Oct 27, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Take a break from earnings.

Here I’ll highlight some companies that did massive repurchases over time.

Friendly reminder to account for SBC and % of mkt cap when calling any share-repo “massive” and best to look long term.

Let’s take a look at some real cannibals

🧵👇
Moody’s $MCO

A classic capital light compounder and one of the best businesses around. Shares outstanding are down 41% in 20 years.
Verisign $VRSN

Boring company nobody has heard of that operates domain name registry for the internet, like .com

shares outstanding down 58%
$ALLY My favorite Online Bank

Shares outstanding are down 28% in FIVE years

…and just getting started
AerCap $AER is an interesting one…

that big pop was issuing shares for a big acquisition (ILFC), issued >book and bought back shares subsequently below book (40% of them)

Pt. II: They’re now doing the exact same thing to buy GECAS and fully expect them to buyback shares after
$JPM Jamie has been disciplined on buybacks over the years, slow and steady does it.

-25% over last 10 years
$CHTR FinTwit favorite is a master in the buyback game, and quite vocal about it.

Issued shares to buy TWC, now buying back shares non-stop: -32% last 5 years and no signs of slowing down
$AAPL gotta include this one as they got serious about capital allocation

You can thank Tim Cook of course, but also Carl Icahn and Buffett

Shares outstanding down 38%
$AZO AutoZone deserves a place in the throne…

shares are down 81% over the last 20 years. Yes you read that right.

Also, yes this is a log-scale.

But they actually get second place.
The winner is saved for last: Teledyne of the 70s (still around today and a great company!)

Henry Singleton was the buyback GOAT. Between 1972-84 he tendered shares aggressively when the price fell to single digit PE ratios.

He ended up buying back OVER 90% of them in 12 years.
Which stocks would you add to the list?

What’s your favorite buyback story going forward? Bonus points if it’s not FAANMG.

I think $BRK will be interesting and certainly $ALLY

(As promised, cc @DadInvest)

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More from @SleepwellCap

Mar 5, 2024
A few takeaways from the Morgan Stanley 7th Annual Swiss Watch report:

Polarization continued the Big 4 (Rolex, Patek, AP and Richard Mille) gaining share (+200 bps) and capturing 44% of the market (vs 36.9% in 2019) Image
Rolex became the first Swiss watch brand to surpass CHF 10bn with 30% estimated market share

"No other luxury brand can claim such a dominant position in its respective sector. For example, Louis Vuitton had a market share of 'only' ~19% in the luxury handbag market last year."
Richemont $CFRUY mixed bag: 3 brands gained share (Vacheron, A Lange & Sohne, Van Cleef) but IWC sales declined ~13%, believed to be a consequence of aggressive pricing (eg new Ingenieur costs ~12K) with brands like Omega offering similar/better value for a lower price
Read 12 tweets
May 8, 2023
$BRK released its First Quarter earnings on Saturday.

As usual, all the juice is in the 10-Q. Here are some highlights:

Operating earnings (defined by $BRK) were up 13%
Adjusting for certain items (amortization, FX, one time items, acquisitions) operating earnings increased 21% Image
Most of the strength is attributable to insurance, with underwriting profits up >5x and investment income +68% given higher interest rates.

BNSF and BHE earnings were both down 9%

The industrial and services group saw strength, while consumer and building products were weak
Total revenues increased 7%

Excluding the impact of acquisitions (Alleghany and Pilot) +3%

Accounting for FX headwinds "organic" revenue was probably 4-5%
Read 22 tweets
Feb 22, 2023
Interesting recent VIC Writeup on $NTDOY by 08ird (short summary):

"Nintendo has already expanded its operating margin from ~4% in FY15 to ~35% today. Incredibly, its stock has hardly seen any multiple expansion, despite numerous value-unlocking events that have happened."
"Our first, and most critical assumption, is that the Nintendo Switch should be viewed as an “App Store Platform” that is in the midst of a secular growth of digital purchases. More than half the number of games sold on the Nintendo Switch are from third-party publishers."
"Our second key assumption is that the Switch will enter a new transformational growth phase (likely in 2023) on the back of hardware advancements. The new device likely uses the newer and more powerful Tegra239 system on a chip that could support PS4, level graphics"
Read 4 tweets
Aug 6, 2022
$BRK 2Q Highlights

Operating earnings up 19% (ex FX gains from non USD debt) to $8.2B

Notable strength in railroad (+10%) and insurance-investment income (+56%) mainly from higher rates and dividends
Buyback for the quarter ~$1B, all of it in June when the stock traded as low as ~$270. Average price paid ~$280 per B share.

Notably, looks like another ~$1.4B was bought between July 1st and July 26 (bottom of the 1st page of the 10-Q), at similar prices ImageImage
Net buyers of equities: $45B (last year net sellers)
Net buyers of bonds: $22B

(YTD) Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 23, 2021
A look back at my 2021 Substack journey📝

I write about topics that fascinate me, which don’t get enough attention and where I think I can say something valuable.

I also aim for a long shelf-life and have no publication schedule (quality>quantity)

My 7 pieces from this year👇
1. Spotify’s Third Act

My first piece examines $SPOT ’s venture into Live Audio with their acquisition of Locker Room, and speculation of what could come out of it.

(disc. long)

sleepwell.substack.com/p/spotifys-thi…
2. Music Streaming Royalties 101

My most successful piece yet (14K views)

I’ve spent years studying the industry and I was amazed by how hard it is to find clear and concise information on this topic…

So I decided to do something about that myself!

sleepwell.substack.com/p/music-stream…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 25, 2021
$CSU.TO Announces Formation of Venture Capital Fund

-Invest in businesses that have the potential to become standalone business units within CSI
-Objective is to develop organic growth processes which can eventually be rolled out more broadly by CSI

csisoftware.com/docs/default-s…
“Organic growth will be a critically important part of CSI's enduring success. TOG has one of the best track records of sustained organic growth at scale that I’ve seen in the VMS industry” –Mark Leonard

h/t @invertir_blog
My quick takeaway here:

-Signaling that they are taking organic growth more seriously going forward, which could drive a lot of incremental value.

-It’s the first time they are specifically targeting high growth companies.

-If it works, it could be much bigger down the road
Read 6 tweets

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