This is completely false. Not an incorrect interpretation - totally false. To know the rate of hospitalization w/CLI for vaxxed/previously infected, you would need to know the age-adjusted pct of each in the outside pop. Study doesn't calculate that, because info doesn't exist.
To know whether vaxxed ppl were more likely to be hospitalized w/Covid-like illness, you would need to divide the number of vaxxed ppl hospitalized w/CLI by the # of vaxxed ppl in the community, and adjust for age (since older ppl are more likely to be hospitalized in general).
You would then need to divide the number of unvaxxed, previously infected ppl hospitalized for CLI by the number of those ppl in the community, and compare the rates. But we have no idea of how many unvaxxed, previously infected ppl there are, so the calculation is impossible.
Also, since the study looked at 9 months of data, you would need to make constantly rolling adjustments depending on the changing vax rates and rates of previous infection in the community. We don't have any data source that would allow you to do that.
OP's claim, then, that this study shows that vaccinated people are 6x more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-like illness than unvaxxed, previously infected ppl are, is a lie, and it should be deleted.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with James Surowiecki

James Surowiecki Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JamesSurowiecki

29 Oct
Actually, Puerto Rico has the lowest case rate in the US. It also has the highest vaccination rate in the US.

And one reason FL's case rate is low is that it tests so much less than other states: its positive-test rate is significantly higher than states like CT, VT, even LA.
Right-wingers complain about all the criticism of DeSantis. But if DeSantis and his shills would just stop the endless bragging and acknowledge that he and his team radically misjudged what was going to happen this summer, the criticism would be far more muted.
On July 13, Kyle Lamb - one of DeSantis' "data analysts" - tweeted that the summer surge "likely won't last very long." In fact it was just starting, and thousands of Floridians died over the next 2 1/2 months. Predictions are hard with Covid. But just admit they got it wrong.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
Stephen A. hits on one of the interestingly underdiscussed issues here, namely Kyrie's insistence on putting his own interests above the team's. Not surprising, given that the NBA is a star-driven rather than a team-driven league, but still striking.
By contrast, 99% of players in the NHL, which is exceedingly team-centered (for good and bad), are now vaxxed - all but four players in the entire league.
The men's major team sport with the lowest vax rate seems to be MLB, which makes sense, since it's the most individual of the four sports. Also interesting that pitchers have been among the most high-profile refuseniks.

By contrast, NFL has a very high vax rate.
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
Lamar Jackson went 37-for-43 for 442 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs, and one fumble last night.

Mac Jones went 23-for-30 for 231 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Lamar Jackson's Total QBR for the game was 67.4.

Mac Jones' was 66.3, just one point lower.

What a stat.
Of course, Jackson's performance, which you might have thought was one of the great performances by an NFL QB in recent memory, was far outshone, according to Total QBR, by Ryan Tannehill's 14-for-22 for 197 yards, which earned him a QBR of 74.3.
Once you start relying so heavily on EPA, you're essentially allowing luck to play a much bigger role in your overall evaluation of a QB's performance than it should.
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
1. It's bizarre to argue, as Matt Taibbi does in this piece, that people writing about Merck's new Covid drug shouldn't bother mentioning that it's not a substitute for vaccination, and that doing so is a sign you're a "vaccine neurotic."…
2. Lots of ppl saw the news about Merck's drug and said, "Vaxxes aren't necessary now." (Some of them said this to me.) If you're a writer, and you know some of your readers are going to draw the wrong conclusion from your story, you have to do what you can to ensure they don't.
3. This isn't about a political debate - it's about reality. A drug that prevents 50% of Covid deaths in ppl who are already sick is objectively not a substitute for a vaccine that prevents 90+% of Covid deaths. And any reporter should make that clear.
Read 6 tweets
28 Sep
One problem with Total QBR as a stat is that it's a black-box stat. There's no way for a human to calculate it on their own, and no way for a human to know whether the computer's division of credit for EPA makes sense.
The value of Total QBR is that it recognizes that QB play is not independent of the work teammates do. (I'm less convinced its heavy emphasis on context makes sense, downweighting for garbage time aside, but whatever.) The price of this, though, is its black-boxness.
Dak Prescott went 21/26 for 238 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs last night. He had a QBR of 37.8.

Jameis Winston was 13/21 for 128 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. QBR of 68.5.

Dak also lost a fumble and had 1 more sack. But I don't think anyone thinks Winston played almost 2x better.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
Kyrie will not be able to play in any home games for the Nets if he isn't vaxxed. That may not be a dealbreaker during the regular season. But the idea that the Nets would pay him a full salary while knowing he's going to miss 4 of 7 games every playoff round is absurd.
The Rolling Stone piece surprisingly doesn't say if players who can't play home games because they are unvaccinated will get paid for those games. (The stories about Wiggins have been similarly opaque.) Obviously they shouldn't get paid, but not clear if the CBA allows this.
Just yesterday I was wondering why ESPN's player rankings would have Devin Booker five places above Kyrie, who is objectively a far better player than Booker. The RS story provides the answer: Kyrie is a complete flake whom you cannot count on to even show up.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!