Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Nov 4, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Durham tries to get to the bottom of where the pee tape allegation came from. He seems to imply what he thinks is the answer without actually proving it.

This is a bit complicated so needs some decoding (cont'd)...

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Much of the Steele dossier relied on information provided by Igor Danchenko, who is the subject of this indictment.

Per indictment, Danchenko was close to an unnamed Democratic PR Executive who worked in Russia and had associations with many key figures named in dossier
This Democratic PR Executive told Danchenko that he had inside information on the downfall of Paul Manafort, from "a GOP friend". Danchenko wrote up his info and put it into the dossier.

But the PR exec actually just made that up, had no "friend" who gave him inside info
The PR Exec also stayed at the Moscow Ritz Carlton in June 2016 and heard about Trump's visit. The PR exec admitted to FBI that no sexual or salacious activity was mentioned.

After that, Danchenko (who had not actually visited the hotel) wrote up the pee tape stuff for Steele
Durham seems to want to imply that either the PR exec or Danchenko made up the pee tape claim. Similarly to how the PR exec fabricated the Manafort claim.

He doesn't actually prove that. He says, if not for Danchenko's false statements, FBI could have questioned the PR exec more
Like Durham's last indictment was mainly about establishing a narrative about Alfa Bank, this indictment means to establish a narrative about Steele Dossier.

That narrative: lots of its info came from someone close to the Clintons, a guy who tended to make stuff up
Fewer indictments so far but Durham's investigation is mirroring Mueller's in some ways.

A big sweeping topic being investigated, but the cases coming out of it are false statements with the bigger narrative not being definitively established

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More from @awprokop

Mar 20, 2023
The tangled, nearly 7-year saga of the Stormy Daniels hush money scandal and investigations that has resulted in Trump now being on the verge of indictment, explained

vox.com/policy-and-pol…
THE PAYOFF: The month before the 2016 election, Stormy Daniels prepared to come forward alleging a consensual sexual encounter with Trump 10 years prior — but let it be known she'd accept payment for her silent.

Michael Cohen sent the payment, $130,000, on October 27, 2016. Image
INVESTIGATION 1 (FEDS): When SDNY prosecutors investigated Cohen, they argued the $130,000 payment violated federal campaign finance laws, since it was meant to help Trump win the election.

Cohen pleaded guilty to this and other charges. But the theory was never tested in court Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 17, 2023
Hunter Biden has filed a countersuit against the computer repair store owner who provided his emails and files to Trump allies.

It's interesting to look very closely at which claims Hunter explicitly denies and which he claims not to have knowledge sufficient to confirm or deny
Hunter denies he was referred to the repair store.

Hunter says he lacks the knowledge to confirm or deny whether he asked the repairman to recover info from damaged computers and whether he himself returned to the shop the next day
So this is not an outright denial that Hunter dropped his laptops off at the repair store. Instead it seems to point to a "I don't remember" (implicitly: "I was too wasted" defense)
Read 5 tweets
Mar 16, 2023
This seems in very poor taste to me.

Its roots however go back much further than the Great Awokening!

The first version of this exercise I can find online is from the year 1998 (thread cont'd)
Here we have the same exercise, "Whom to Leave Behind," but with different identities. Race is only explicitly mentioned for one person on the list. It's dated 1998 at the bottom.

home.snu.edu/~jsmith/librar…
The version with the rather absurd identities list shows up in a "Diversity Activities" packet uploaded in 2015.

The only instructions given are to talk about it. It seems like a kinda ridiculous, Michael Scott-esque poor taste team-building exercise

solarev.org/migration/wp-c…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 14, 2023
Thoughtful @henrygrabar piece on how the city-dwellers worrying about a "crime" problem seem to actually be worrying about a "public disorder" problem.

slate.com/business/2023/… Image
You can imagine a spectrum from “total anarchy” to “authoritarian clampdown."

Current debate is between those who think cities have gotten too disorderly and need more order, vs. those suspicious attempts to enforce more order will inevitably be discriminatory & authoritarian
Another installment of the debate here.

The reason the tide seems to be turning somewhat toward the "more order" camp, it seems to me, is that the "less order" camp doesn't seem to have a solution, focusing instead on denying there's any problem

latimes.com/california/sto… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Mar 10, 2023
I wrote about the most consistent throughline to Ron DeSantis's career — his enthusiastic self-reinventions toward whichever political cause is in vogue and whichever persona could help him achieve his next ambition.

He supports The Current Thing.

vox.com/politics/23622…
This tendency of DeSantis’s was evident back in 2019 when @reihan pointed out that he had shifted from a spending-cutting Tea Partier to a Trump superfan to (early in his governorship) a surprisingly uncontroversial pragmatist. But he wouldn't stop there.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
DeSantis began his political career running in a crowded open House primary despite little ties to the district's political establishment.

His path to success was cultivating national Tea Party groups and conservative celebrities. So he became a staunch Tea Party spending-cutter
Read 9 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
Tucker Carlson and other right commentators play a game where they try to leave the impression that they agree the 2020 election was stolen, without ever quite saying that.

Instead they claim it was in some abstract sense rigged, unfair, or implausible

vox.com/politics/2023/…
Per Carlson's revisionist history, the real story about January 6 is that Democrats and the media were mean to Trump supporters.

Not Trump's then-ongoing attempt to steal the election, not the ample violence that did take place, not the disruption to the transfer of power
"I hate him passionately," Carlson texted about Trump on 1/4/21.

But publicly Carlson is all about convincing Trump supporters that he's their champion against their enemies. So he taps into grievance and tells them how they're the true victims.
vox.com/politics/2023/…
Read 6 tweets

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