Cash App and seller ecosystem continue to grow at an impressive rate. My notes from this call.
2/ "mid-market sellers experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2021, growing gross profit nearly twice as fast as the overall Seller business on a two-year CAGR basis. Mid market Seller GPV represented 37% of total Seller GPV, compared to 28% two years ago."
3/ "with more than three out of four Square Invoices getting paid within a day vs. the industry average of 25 days for small businesses."
A new software/subscription offering: SQ Invoices Plus.
New international market: France, second largest card markets in Europe
4/ Cash App is focusing on teens, a demography of 20 mn in the US.
5/ In August, SQ launched Cash App pay.
"Cash App Pay has become a top requested feature at both Cash App customers and Square Sellers."
3 initiatives related to bitcoin: TBD, bitcoin hardware wallet, bitcoin mining system.
6/ Analyst asked point blank whether SQ will allow other crypto trading or dabble into NFTs?
The answer is no.
"Our focus is on helping Bitcoin to become the native currency for the Internet."
7/ "we continue to see an increase in attach rates for products using Cash Card. In the third quarter, Cash Card active brought in approximately 70% more inflows each month in than non-Cash Card actives."
8/ "we've begun to increase our customer acquisition costs above the historical $5 range, which we believe is too efficient, given the opportunities that we see"
"we're going to make an enhancement to the overall referral program and use it as a way to cross-sell our ecosystem"
9/ "customer balances slightly down quarter-over-quarter, up 143% on a year-over-year basis. We would really orient you, though, to look at inflows more broadly"
"With a larger base of customers, we get more opportunity to introduce discovery features to our network"
10/ International is growing faster than US. The focus on international is to be close to parity in terms of products compared to how it is in the US.
11/ "rate of weekly usage had nearly doubled year-over-year, growing faster than the monthly active Cash Card customers"
"As of third quarter, customers can now use Cash Card in person and online in many countries outside the U.S."
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."