A friend in Nairobi, who can’t publicly comment on the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict “for diplomatic reasons” (his initials are D.O) sent me these “6 Things The Ethiopia Conflicts Tells Us About Africa Today” 1/7.
📸Amanuel Sileshi/AFP
📸Amanuel Sileshi/AFP
We are seeing the crisis/death of 2nd generation constitutions: Ethiopia with its diversity-sensitive constitution, federalism & self-determination clauses, mirrored in the angst and twitches in South Africa 2/7
Ethiopia reminds us of the limits of the “modernisation” (read big infrastructure ) model that “brings” development and nurtures cohesion through satisfied stomachs. It was rising until it fell 3/7
It also demonstrates that African dysfunction can’t always be attributed to the colonial experience. Ethiopia wasn’t colonised and led a highly storied war against the Italians 4/7
It shows that the existence of a large foreign presence in a country - a regional hub - is no inoculation against state collapse 5/7
Ethiopian conflict proves what has been observed in conflict literature: the best predictor of war in a country is a prior experience with war. Once you break your “peace virginity”, just expect more children down the line 6/7
📸EPA
📸EPA
Last, on a light note, having a Nobel winner ( PM Abiy & Wangari Maathai in Kenya) and great Gold-winning runners (Haile Gebrselassie or Eliud Kipchoge) is no guarantee of peace 7/7
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