Some things to think about: 1) Some politicians regularly complain about QE and the BOJ. It is because the elderly own most of the assets and they are frustrated with low income from low rates. 2) Japanese companies care more about their young employees than their old.
3) Japan will end up with too few warm bodies for its ambitions in a couple of decades. The labour shortage will be āmitigatedā by
a) FA/RPA
b) off-shoring
c) larger scale farming
d) the elderly working more/longer
e) imported labour
4) The vast majority of household savings assets are held by those over 55.
ā¢ ā¢ ā¢
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Softbank was the biggest expected sell at a little under US$3bn for passive trackers to sell.
That's a 5min chart over the past week. A bunch of volume will have gotten crossed off-market post-close. Those who look will see a couple of big prints out tomorrow noontime.
It appears as if the baskets didn't trade *that* well (i.e. they were substantially pre-positioned) on the last day and a lot of the big names appear to have run against in the last 5mins.
Those tables are from FFW change announcement day 3wks ago - not today's prices. Quantities should be good tho.
The details are not out officially, but the "loser" here ADC (9318 JP) (which is an arm of Sun Hung Kai & Co) apparently didn't have their votes counted (because they are on margin).
They say that if their votes had been counted, it would have gone the other way.
The Tokyo District Court will review the case later this coming week and I expect that whoever loses will appeal.
For my part, I think the history and operation of ADC is dodgy.
It comes from Sun Hung Kai's takeover of a large stake in the company when it was called J Bridge,
"Evergrande has announced that it will make interest payments on domestic bonds, even as the property developer teeters on the brink of a dollar debt default, deepening suspicious among offshore investors they will be last line for repayment."
Company A has debt. Company B has debt. A owns 60% of B.
A is having trouble paying its debts.
B is having trouble paying its debts.
B has a bond coupon and pays it.
A has a bond coupon and doesn't pay it.
This is not "unfair".
A bondholders do not have recourse to the cash of B. B pays its debts, and if there is money left over, it might pay a dividend and A will have money to pay its bondholders. But B is not responsible for A's debts.
EVERRE is not the same as some other developer issuers.
Taken in conjunction with the Zou Lan presser on Friday, and the PBOC meeting 29 Sep where they called everyone on the carpet, to say banks should lend continuing projects and approve mortgages for projects which have pre-sales approved, and the RMBS
approvals late last week, not to mention the expansion of mortgage approvals in Harbin and elsewhere and the PBOC urging banks to deal with mortgage approvals faster, the financial regulatory backdrop is getting decidedly better near-term for developers which are "healthy."
The goal for those developers, if given a reprieve, should be to sell whatever assets they can sell to turn non-liquid book value into liquid book value, even if it means giving up land bank. The new sheriff of property development is OK with developers making a profit
A subject worthwhile thinking about. A DM group discussed this a few days ago (chart h/t to š) where I suggested the combo was a setup for the Fed raising rates faster/sooner than people think.
The timing is right. There is more buffer in place than people think.
Higher oil & commod prices, higher average wages, more benefits, higher rates, etc should all help dampen ProfitMargin/GDP, but it starts from a very high place. And the UER from a relatively low place (given the history in the 70s where inflation and slightly higher rates and
costs meant higher nominal GDP, and lower-trending labor share of GDP), and given the recent quit rate we are seeing, and the labor mobility rates, room is being made to shift people up the curve in many places, and to absorb more labor at the lowest income brackets.