Mid Term Opinion Poll for 10 Lok Sabha seats of Haryana

BJP+ : 7-9
INC : 1-3

Factors in favour of BJP in Haryana -

1. PM Narendra Modi is tallest leader for Haryanvis & they support BJP primarily due to him.

2. State Govt ended Parchi system (corruption) in Govt jobs.
3. 75% of reservation for locals in jobs will do wonders.

4. ML Khattar is tallest non-Jat leader in 55 years history of Haryana.

5. Jats V/S Non-Jats consolidation is at peak in Haryana & it will give rich political dividends to BJP
Factors Against BJP :

1. On couple of seats Jats are more than 35% which will cause big trouble for BJP.

2. Unemployment as per GoI figures is another big trouble but with Khattar’s efforts it is being dealt with.
3. Middle class is unhappy with the constant trouble due to protestors but they won’t go against BJP as they know if Congress wins their problems will multiply.

4. SCs & OBCs feel they don’t have adequate representation in State Govt but they won’t go anywhere due to PM Modi.
Assumptions Made -

1. 70-80% Non-Jats voting BJP.

2. 10-15% Jats voting for NDA.

3. 2% of Sikhs & 6% of Muslims voting BJP.

4. Bhupinder Singh Hooda remains in Congress.

Seat by seat prediction from next thread.
Ambala (SC)

1. Chamars(SCs) - 4,50,000
2. Balmikis (SCs) - 98,000
3. Jats - 1,30,000
4. Jat Sikhs - 1,00,000
5. Muslims - 50,000
6. FCs - 4,00,000
7. OBCs - 4,72,000

Total Voters - 17,00,000

Some Mazhabi Sikhs are also there in Chamar (SC) category.
This seat has urban pockets & BJP will win it easily on account of less Jats & Sikhs. This seat will be A Category seat for BJP.

Prediction- BJP Win.
Kurukshetra

Demography-

1. Jats : 32%
2. OBCs : 48%
3. SCs : 12%
4. FCs : 8%

Here Sainis (OBCs) are around 1 lakh & they will go with sitting BJP MP Nayab Singh Saini. Caste arithmetic ensures INC is not in the race unless they field Naveen Jindal who has deep pockets to
compete against BJP machinery.

If Congress fields non-Jat candidate here that candidate won’t get even 20% vote from his community also.

There are rumours that Jindal can join BJP also before 2024 Lok Sabha polls & he may get Rajya Sabha ticket.

Prediction- BJP Win.
Sirsa

Demography -

1. SCs - 7,25,000
2. Jats - 3,25,000
3. Jat Sikhs - 1,82,000
4. Punjabis - 1,11,000
5. Baniyas - 87,000
6. Kamboj - 85,000
7. Bishnois - 48,000
8. OBCs - 1,60,000
9. Muslims - 20,000

BJP is getting stronger here as Kanda brothers & Ranjit Singh Chautala
are with BJP now.

INLD can turn this contest three way & take away 50k to 75k votes of Congress & high probability that Ashok Tanwar is fielded by INLD here.

Prediction - BJP Win.
Hisar

Demography-

1. Jats : 6,00,000
2. FCs : 2,30,000
3. OBCs : 3,10,000
4. SCs : 1,90,000
5. Sikhs & Muslims : 2,10,000

High chances that JJP’s Digvijay Singh Chautala contests this seat from NDA as JJP is strong here. Sitting BJP MP Bijendra whose father is against 3 farm
laws can contest on INLD ticket as Kuldeep Bishnoi is expected to contest this seat from INC.

Jat votes will be divided in that scenario & help NDA candidate.

In case BJP decides to contest Subhash Barala is likely candidate.

Prediction - 50:50.
Karnal

Demography -

1. Punjabis : 2,50,000
2. Jats : 2,00,000
3. Brahmins : 2,50,000
4. Rors: 1,25,000
5. Jat Sikhs : 1,00,000
6. Rajputs : 90,000
7. Mahajans : 75,000
8. OBCs : 4,00,000
9. SCs : 3,00,000

If Punjabis, Brahmins & Rajputs are more than Jats+Sikhs in Haryana then
that seat will be won by BJP even on its worst day. Karnal is one of the safest seat for BJP like Indore, Bhopal, Surat & Mumbai North.

Prediction- BJP Win.
Sonipat

Demography-

1. Jats : 5,25,000
2. Brahmins : 1,55,000
3. Jat Sikhs & Muslims : 1,30,000
4. OBCs : 2,70,000
5. SCs : 1,90,000
6. Others : 2,40,000

Some big Khaps are dominant here & they will support INC here which will lead to solid counter polarisation I’m favour of
BJP. Last time Hooda got around 70% Jats which will increase to almost 95% this time. However he got some Non-Jat votes & that will shift to BJP. If Congress fields someone else then they won’t be even in the race here.

Prediction : 50-50
Rohtak

Demography -

1. Jats : 36%
2. Sikhs : 5%
3. Muslims : 2%
4. FCs : 20%
5. OBCs : 24%
6. SCs : 13%

Here Congress leads mere 20% of Non-Jat votes to defeat BJP. BJP needs almost 85% consolidation of Non-Jats to trounce Deepinder Hooda here.
In 2019 Hooda was defeated as Punjabis & Baniyas along with other communities voted out Hooda for affecting their business during Jat agitation. He tried to connect with Non-Jats in last two years & Congress seems good here.

Prediction - Congress Win.
Bhiwani Mahendragarh

Demography -

1. Jats : 3,50,000
2. Yadavs : 2,60,000
3. Brahmins : 1,80,000
4. Gurjars : 1,60,000
5. Mahajans : 1,30,000
6. Punjabis & Rajputs : 1,40,000
7. Others : 4,00,000

Here Jats are largest community & Congress is likely to field Shruti Chaudhary
again as she is granddaughter of former CM Bansi Lal.
There are chances that JJP might demand this seat for Ajay Singh Chautala.

Yadavs, Brahmins, Gurjars & Punjabis alone will defeat Congress here. This seat is extremely safe seat for NDA.

Prediction- BJP Win.
Gurgaon

Demography -

1. Yadavs : 18%
2. SCs : 13%
3. Punjabis : 7.5%
4. Jats : 7%
5. Brahmins : 4.5%
6. Gurjars : 5%
7. Rajputs : 4%
8. Baniyas : 3%
9. Muslims : 21%
10. Others : 17%

This is urban constituency & here even Jats will vote for BJP in good numbers.
There is possibility that even 25% of Muslim votes can go to BJP due to Zakir Hussain factor.

Rao Inderjit Singh is sitting MP & he is popular figure who can win this election easily.

Prediction - BJP Win.
Faridabad

Demography -

1. Jats : 3,10,000
2. Gujjars : 2,90,000
3. SCs : 3,20,000
4. Brahmins : 2,00,000
5. Muslims : 2,00,000
6. Punjabis : 1,20,000
7. Baniyas & Rajputs : 2,30,000
8. OBCs : 3,00,000

BJP won this seat by margin of 6.5 lakhs in 2019 & demography shows the
reason of that splendid performance.

The margin of victory may decline but victory is sure.

Prediction- BJP Wim.

High Command must think on replacing Sonepat MP Ramesh Chander Kaushik & Bhiwani MP Dharambir Singh for a further smooth sail.

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