AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS)
Analyzing the competition - a thread
Lynk
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Analyzing the competition - a thread
Lynk
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Today I am going to dive into another competitive analysis. This time I will be covering Lynk Global.
In my last competitive analysis, I looked at Iridium in comparison to $ASTS -
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In my last competitive analysis, I looked at Iridium in comparison to $ASTS -
https://twitter.com/steve_larrison/status/1429087331273768970
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They are already operational. They also have a different business model - they are a complete Mobile Network Operator (MNO) But on the technology side, they don't really compete well with what SpaceMobile will become.
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Lynk has a lot more in common with ASTS than Iridium does.
And not just because they are both pre-revenue startups. Both companies are building satellite networks that will allow unmodified cell phones to operate without the need for ground based cell towers.
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And not just because they are both pre-revenue startups. Both companies are building satellite networks that will allow unmodified cell phones to operate without the need for ground based cell towers.
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Both companies are also pursuing a wholesale business model where they sell data to larger MNOs.
While there are numerous similarities between the companies, there are also important differences.
Those differences are the focus of this thread.
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While there are numerous similarities between the companies, there are also important differences.
Those differences are the focus of this thread.
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First a little history.
Both ASTS and Lynk were formed in 2017.
Lynk was originally named UbiquitiLink, but then maybe they realized that no one can spell "UbiquitiLink" and wisely changed their name to Lynk.
Though both companies were founded at about the same time, ASTS
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Both ASTS and Lynk were formed in 2017.
Lynk was originally named UbiquitiLink, but then maybe they realized that no one can spell "UbiquitiLink" and wisely changed their name to Lynk.
Though both companies were founded at about the same time, ASTS
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appears to be much further ahead in their goal of building a viable satellite based platform to provide cellular data to the unconnected. (Though there are some confusing PR releases that may make you think differently)
Using LinkedIn as a reference, if you look at total
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Using LinkedIn as a reference, if you look at total
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of 165 employees (Note: In the earnings call in August, Abel mentioned that the total head count was 454 employees and contractors. Not everyone updates their LinkedIn profile when they change jobs, and also, it's conceivable that a lot of the contractors are listing
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their contract houses as their employer. But I want to keep this comparison fair, so I will use LinkedIn as a reference because it is the only reference I have for Lynk headcount)
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Lynk on the other hand lists 32 employees on LinkedIn.
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Next important metric is funding.
Building and launching a satellite constellation is not cheap.
Prior to going beginning the SPAC process last December, ASTS had raised a total of $110 million. The SPAC process added $462 million to the funding that ASTS has raised
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Building and launching a satellite constellation is not cheap.
Prior to going beginning the SPAC process last December, ASTS had raised a total of $110 million. The SPAC process added $462 million to the funding that ASTS has raised
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to date.
If/when the stock maintains a closing price above $18 for 18 of 30 trading days, warrants will become callable, and ASTS can raise up to an additional $202 million by converting warrants to shares.
Including warrant conversions, ASTS will have a total of
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If/when the stock maintains a closing price above $18 for 18 of 30 trading days, warrants will become callable, and ASTS can raise up to an additional $202 million by converting warrants to shares.
Including warrant conversions, ASTS will have a total of
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$774 million to launch and test Blue Walker 3, then build out phase 1 and begin generating revenue.
If you look at where ASTS was in the lifecycle of startups, they had completed their "B" round of funding, and their "C" round was aborted in favor of becoming a SPAC.
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If you look at where ASTS was in the lifecycle of startups, they had completed their "B" round of funding, and their "C" round was aborted in favor of becoming a SPAC.
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Lynk Global is not public yet.
I have seen 2 different numbers for the amount of funds raised to date - $12 million and $20 million.
I have also read that Lynk is in the process of raising more funds. That should not come as a surprise to anyone. Entering this business
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I have seen 2 different numbers for the amount of funds raised to date - $12 million and $20 million.
I have also read that Lynk is in the process of raising more funds. That should not come as a surprise to anyone. Entering this business
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is not cheap.
Based on the amount of funds raised, I think it is far to say that Lynk is in the "B" series of fund raising.
Early Acheivements
Lynk was in the news at the end of September for completing a two way link between an unmodified cell phone and a satellite.
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Based on the amount of funds raised, I think it is far to say that Lynk is in the "B" series of fund raising.
Early Acheivements
Lynk was in the news at the end of September for completing a two way link between an unmodified cell phone and a satellite.
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In demonstrating the technology, the company stated the following in a press release "On 14 September 2021, Lynk became the first company in history to create a successful two-way connection between a standard mobile cellular device on Earth and a satellite cell tower."
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Technically that statement that you can see at lynk.world/how-lynk-prove… is true.
But honestly, it is also true because of the inclusion of what I consider to be "weasel words".
If you watched the David Marshawn video, you know that ASTS launched a cell phone into space,
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But honestly, it is also true because of the inclusion of what I consider to be "weasel words".
If you watched the David Marshawn video, you know that ASTS launched a cell phone into space,
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and talked to it from a ground based satellite back in 2019.
This strategy was nothing short of brilliant. It allowed ASTS to iterate faster and solve complex probems on the ground where they could be addressed quickly and for far less money.
As a result of that strategy,
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This strategy was nothing short of brilliant. It allowed ASTS to iterate faster and solve complex probems on the ground where they could be addressed quickly and for far less money.
As a result of that strategy,
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AST has only launched 1 satellite to date.
The "Shannon" satellite aka Lynk-06 (space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/lynk-…) was Lynk's 6th satellite.
The ability to iterate faster is likely to be directly linked to ASTS's ability to raise far more funds than Lynk even though both companies
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The "Shannon" satellite aka Lynk-06 (space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/lynk-…) was Lynk's 6th satellite.
The ability to iterate faster is likely to be directly linked to ASTS's ability to raise far more funds than Lynk even though both companies
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were created around the same time.
Next up is the technical approach to the satellites in the constellations.
It is impossible to talk about these satellites without covering a few basics about antennas. This is going to be a very basic introduction to antennas - just
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Next up is the technical approach to the satellites in the constellations.
It is impossible to talk about these satellites without covering a few basics about antennas. This is going to be a very basic introduction to antennas - just
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so that people know that not all antennas are created equal.
It's possible to write books on the subject. For the purpose of this thread, I am just going to briefly touch on 3 metrics - efficiency, gain and aperature.
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It's possible to write books on the subject. For the purpose of this thread, I am just going to briefly touch on 3 metrics - efficiency, gain and aperature.
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Efficiency - efficiency of a transmitting antenna is defined as the ratio between the input signal received over the power absorbed by the antenna terminals.
For the application involved, highly efficient antennas are essential. Both companies are working with unmodified
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For the application involved, highly efficient antennas are essential. Both companies are working with unmodified
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cell phones, so it is not possible to boost the signal of the ground handset. Antenna design needs to minimize loss or you won't be able to deal with signals from earth.
Gain - this metric measures the degree of directivity of an antennas radiation pattern. In other words
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Gain - this metric measures the degree of directivity of an antennas radiation pattern. In other words
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gain measures how concentrated the signal is in specific directions.
If you think about a TV or radio broadcasting antenna, you want the signal to be strong in all directions.
If you think about an antenna on a satellite talking to earth, you want the concentration of the
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If you think about a TV or radio broadcasting antenna, you want the signal to be strong in all directions.
If you think about an antenna on a satellite talking to earth, you want the concentration of the
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signal directed towards earth.
Aperture - this is also known as the "effective area". It refers to the portion of an electromagnetic signal (radio wave) that is delivered to it's terminals.
The point in briefly explaining these metrics is because I want people to
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Aperture - this is also known as the "effective area". It refers to the portion of an electromagnetic signal (radio wave) that is delivered to it's terminals.
The point in briefly explaining these metrics is because I want people to
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to understand that the size or number of individual antennas isn't the only thing that matters. You have to look at how well an antenna works for its intended purpose.
The reason it is important to understand that not all antennas are created equal is because ASTS and
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The reason it is important to understand that not all antennas are created equal is because ASTS and
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Lynk have very different approaches to the design of their satellites.
Lynk is building their system on cube satellites. I have read reports of both 1.5 meter and 1.0 meter cube satellites being used by Lynk.
Eventually the Lynk constellation will grow to 5,000 satellites
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Lynk is building their system on cube satellites. I have read reports of both 1.5 meter and 1.0 meter cube satellites being used by Lynk.
Eventually the Lynk constellation will grow to 5,000 satellites
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ASTS originally looked at building SpaceMobile using cube satellites. They even purchased controlling interest (51%) in a company called NanoAvionics to build out the hardware for SpaceMobile.
But there has since been a change in direction.
As most reading this thread
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But there has since been a change in direction.
As most reading this thread
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probably know, the BlueBird1 satellites will be among the largest satellites ever launched.
How large is up to speculation.
Deutsche Bank reported a size of 24m x 24 m in their analyst coverage.
Barclays reported 20m x 20m in their analyst coverage.
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How large is up to speculation.
Deutsche Bank reported a size of 24m x 24 m in their analyst coverage.
Barclays reported 20m x 20m in their analyst coverage.
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CatSE actually froze a video released by AST (), took relative measurements of objects in the frame, and came out with an estimate of 20m x 18m
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As for what I think about the final dimensions, honestly I don't think they even know yet at AST. I am pretty sure that BW3 will have special sensors to measure what happens when the antenna is unfolded, and that they also want to conduct certain maneuvers.
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I think the final size will be determined based on data collected during the testing process of BW3.
In any event, let's just use Barclay's estimate of 20m x 20m for BB1 satellites because it provides nice, round numbers.
A single BB1 satellite is 400 times larger than
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In any event, let's just use Barclay's estimate of 20m x 20m for BB1 satellites because it provides nice, round numbers.
A single BB1 satellite is 400 times larger than
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Lynk satellite. (Assuming the 1mx1m size)
Now I know that I just told everyone that not all antennas are created equal.
Also, it is possible to have different densities of antennas on those satellites. (Though I have to assume that both companies would optimize densities
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Now I know that I just told everyone that not all antennas are created equal.
Also, it is possible to have different densities of antennas on those satellites. (Though I have to assume that both companies would optimize densities
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given that they are essentially building platforms that function as antenna farms in space)
Also, keep in mind that when you build a constellation, you have to care for it and feed it. This comes in the form of moving satellites from place to place as needed.
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Also, keep in mind that when you build a constellation, you have to care for it and feed it. This comes in the form of moving satellites from place to place as needed.
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You may need to move satellites to where they are needed based on demand on earth. You may need to move satellites around to avoid collisions with space junk
But all else being equal (and things aren't quite equal in this case because ASTS is working with large satellites)
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But all else being equal (and things aren't quite equal in this case because ASTS is working with large satellites)
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the more difficult it will be to care for and feed your constellation.
With that out of the way, based on surface areas of satellite platforms to house antennas, the 5,000 satellites that Lynk is planning on launching by the end of 2025 has the same surface area as about
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With that out of the way, based on surface areas of satellite platforms to house antennas, the 5,000 satellites that Lynk is planning on launching by the end of 2025 has the same surface area as about
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12.5 BlueBird 1 satellites.
Again, not all antennas are created equal, and antenna density on platforms can vary, but ASTS is planning on 20 BlueBird1 satellites in phase 1 to provide coverage for just the equatorial regions. (18 are needed to provide coverage, and 2 are
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Again, not all antennas are created equal, and antenna density on platforms can vary, but ASTS is planning on 20 BlueBird1 satellites in phase 1 to provide coverage for just the equatorial regions. (18 are needed to provide coverage, and 2 are
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for redundancy.
Just looking at numbers using the crude methods I outlined here, it is clear to me why StarLink and Kuiper are planning on having so many more satellites in their constellations.
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Just looking at numbers using the crude methods I outlined here, it is clear to me why StarLink and Kuiper are planning on having so many more satellites in their constellations.
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While I was away watching that horrible game between the Broncos and the Cowboys, CatSE reached out to me. (He doesn't tweet on Twitter, but he is does follow a few people)
The following infographic and comments are courtesy of CatSE. They fit in well with the differences
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The following infographic and comments are courtesy of CatSE. They fit in well with the differences
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satellite architecture that I was explaining. (Thanks CatSE!)
As I mentioned when I first started talking about antennas, not all antennas are created equally.
The antenna directivity measured in dB of the Lynk antennas is 26.
The antenna directivity of the AST antennas
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As I mentioned when I first started talking about antennas, not all antennas are created equally.
The antenna directivity measured in dB of the Lynk antennas is 26.
The antenna directivity of the AST antennas
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is 74 dB.
But these measures are on a logarithmic scale.
So that translates to a signal strength ratio of 126 (Lynk) to 25,100,000 (AST)
In other words, the measured signal strength of an AST antenna is about 199,206 times stronger than that of a Lynk antenna.
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But these measures are on a logarithmic scale.
So that translates to a signal strength ratio of 126 (Lynk) to 25,100,000 (AST)
In other words, the measured signal strength of an AST antenna is about 199,206 times stronger than that of a Lynk antenna.
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Being more efficient with weak signals allows AST antennas to work in the midband and upper midband frequency range.
This allows much higher throughput.
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This allows much higher throughput.
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So at the end of the day, the decision to build very large satellites, though it comes with certain engineering challenges, appears to be the right decision.
Which brings up a point that is worth mentioning - in an article at urgentcomm.com/2021/07/13/lyn… , the CEO of Lynk was
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Which brings up a point that is worth mentioning - in an article at urgentcomm.com/2021/07/13/lyn… , the CEO of Lynk was
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quoted as saying “We’re not doing Battlestar Galacticas—that’s an orbital-debris problem. We could grow this to a Battlestar Galactica if we wanted to, but we just think that’s crazy. But that’s a choice. We could build a massive, huge satellite in orbit
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—we’re experts in satellite technology, so we know what that would take—we just think that makes no sense at this time.”
But I beg to differ with that obvious attempt to slam a competitor. The cost to build a BlueBird1 satellite is between $10 and $12 million dollars.
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But I beg to differ with that obvious attempt to slam a competitor. The cost to build a BlueBird1 satellite is between $10 and $12 million dollars.
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Lynk has raised somewhere between $12 million and $20 million.
Frankly, they don't have the money right now to build "Battlestar Galactica".
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Frankly, they don't have the money right now to build "Battlestar Galactica".
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Next up - agreements with MNOs
The path of being a wholesaler of cellular data that both AST and Lynk are pursuing is a wise path.
Rather than repeating something that I have already written, here are my thoughts on the subject.
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The path of being a wholesaler of cellular data that both AST and Lynk are pursuing is a wise path.
Rather than repeating something that I have already written, here are my thoughts on the subject.
https://twitter.com/steve_larrison/status/1424054291396927501
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The thoughts mentioned in that thread apply to both AST SpaceMobile as well as Lynk Global.
So the next part of this thread is going to compare how well each company is doing in attracting MNOs to resell their data.
At the stage of the game that both companies are in,
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So the next part of this thread is going to compare how well each company is doing in attracting MNOs to resell their data.
At the stage of the game that both companies are in,
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Memorandums of Understanding make the most sense as a base of comparison. Given the developmental stage that the technologies of each country are in combined with the need to clear various regulatory hurdles in various countries, it is difficult to impossible to nail down
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exact dates of service or other important details that will appear in formal contracts.
First, on the side of AST - does anyone in SpaceMob have a list of MNOs that have signed MOUs with the company? I have seen scattered press releases, but no consolidated list.
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First, on the side of AST - does anyone in SpaceMob have a list of MNOs that have signed MOUs with the company? I have seen scattered press releases, but no consolidated list.
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From the investor relations section of their website is a summary from the earnings report in August. If you look at investors.ast-science.com/news-releases/…
you will find that during the 2nd quarter, they signed MOUs with at least 5 MNOs. Of course they had MOUs with Vodafone, Rakuten
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you will find that during the 2nd quarter, they signed MOUs with at least 5 MNOs. Of course they had MOUs with Vodafone, Rakuten
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and other MNOs well before the 2nd quarter. The following bullet points are taken from the link 2 tweets ago:
Signed Memoranda of Understanding (“MOUs”) with Smart Communications, Africell, MUNI, UT Mobile, LIBTELCO and others
Increased to approximately 1.5 billion
Signed Memoranda of Understanding (“MOUs”) with Smart Communications, Africell, MUNI, UT Mobile, LIBTELCO and others
Increased to approximately 1.5 billion
the number of subscribers represented by mobile network operators who have agreements and understandings with AST SpaceMobile as of August 16, 2021, compared to 1.3 billion at March 31, 2021
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As for Lynk, their MOUs with MNOs are much easier to track.
To date, they have signed MOUs with 3 MNOs
They have signed with Aliv in the Bahamas (pop 393,248), Telecel Centrafrique in the Central African Republic (pop 4,830,000) and Unitel in Mongolia. (pop 3,278,000)
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To date, they have signed MOUs with 3 MNOs
They have signed with Aliv in the Bahamas (pop 393,248), Telecel Centrafrique in the Central African Republic (pop 4,830,000) and Unitel in Mongolia. (pop 3,278,000)
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Of course those aren't the only MNOs in those countries.
And not all of a telco subscribers will become customers. (That also applies to AST SpaceMobiles MOUs with MNOs with 1.5 billion customers)
But if there was only 1 telco in each country, and the entire population
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And not all of a telco subscribers will become customers. (That also applies to AST SpaceMobiles MOUs with MNOs with 1.5 billion customers)
But if there was only 1 telco in each country, and the entire population
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of each country was a customer of the MNOs that Lynk has an MOU with, they would have (announced) MOUs with MNOs covering 8,501,248 customers
It's worth noting that the CEO of Lynk - Charles Miller - has been quoted as saying that Lynk has testing agreements with other MNOs
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It's worth noting that the CEO of Lynk - Charles Miller - has been quoted as saying that Lynk has testing agreements with other MNOs
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that cover a total population of 1.5 billion people.
Finally, when will each company start offering commercial services.
AST will launch Blue Walker 3 in March 2022.
The testing process for BW3 is expected to last around 6 months.
If everything works well and adheres to
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Finally, when will each company start offering commercial services.
AST will launch Blue Walker 3 in March 2022.
The testing process for BW3 is expected to last around 6 months.
If everything works well and adheres to
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published schedule, commercial services should begin in 2023. Whether that is more towards the beginning, middle or end of 2023 is difficult to say right now - schedule slips are pretty common in this business.
What about Lynk?
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What about Lynk?
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Lynk plans on offering commercial service beginning in the summer of 2022.
Wait!
What?
Yes. Despite the fact that AST closed the satellite to unmodified cell phone loop 2 years before Lynk did, despite everything I said about funding, antennas and satellites, Lynk plans
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Wait!
What?
Yes. Despite the fact that AST closed the satellite to unmodified cell phone loop 2 years before Lynk did, despite everything I said about funding, antennas and satellites, Lynk plans
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on offering commercial services before ASTS will.
Now if you noticed that Lynk put out a PR release saying they were the first company to connect with a satellite from a cell phone on earth in September of this year, you might want to ask what exactly constitutes commercial
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Now if you noticed that Lynk put out a PR release saying they were the first company to connect with a satellite from a cell phone on earth in September of this year, you might want to ask what exactly constitutes commercial
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service.
You would be wise to ask that question.
Lynk has applied for a license to operate with the FCC that will allow them to launch an experimental constellation of 10 satellites.
They plan to start offering a commercial "intermittent text service" next summer.
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You would be wise to ask that question.
Lynk has applied for a license to operate with the FCC that will allow them to launch an experimental constellation of 10 satellites.
They plan to start offering a commercial "intermittent text service" next summer.
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I'm sure that most of you have never heard of an intermittent text service.
The "intermittent" part means that you will only be able to send or receive text messages when one of their 10 satellites is within line-of-sight.
And a text service means that all you will be able
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The "intermittent" part means that you will only be able to send or receive text messages when one of their 10 satellites is within line-of-sight.
And a text service means that all you will be able
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to do is send texts - no voice - no internet.
In conclusion, you may be wondering why I bothered to write this thread and/or why you bothered to read through a thread that is over 60 tweets and counting.
Here's my answer for writing the thread:
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In conclusion, you may be wondering why I bothered to write this thread and/or why you bothered to read through a thread that is over 60 tweets and counting.
Here's my answer for writing the thread:
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the fact that (at least) two independent people started out to solve the same problem at approximately the same time helps validate that what each company is attempting is technically feasible.
Both companies have closed the loop between a satellite and a cell phone without
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Both companies have closed the loop between a satellite and a cell phone without
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needing a cell tower in between the two.
ASTS was able to iterate faster because they took the brilliant approach of launching a cell phone into space and having a satellite on the ground.
But both companies have proved that this is technically possible.
Secondly, it is
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ASTS was able to iterate faster because they took the brilliant approach of launching a cell phone into space and having a satellite on the ground.
But both companies have proved that this is technically possible.
Secondly, it is
66/n
always a good idea to be aware of things that can impact your investments. (And make no mistake, ASTS is an investment for me, not a trade)
Whether those threats are related to technology, competition, or regulation, you need to be cognizant of what is happening around you
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Whether those threats are related to technology, competition, or regulation, you need to be cognizant of what is happening around you
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And while ASTS has the lead today, that won't always necessarily be the case.
Problems with BW3 could change the competitive landscape. So it is always a good idea to be aware of your surroundings.
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Problems with BW3 could change the competitive landscape. So it is always a good idea to be aware of your surroundings.
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One final note - if you haven't already watched the video that @SpacAnpanman posted today of an interview with Chris Quilty, please do.
If you have watched it, go back to the 10 minute mark. Chris talks about why this is happening today as opposed to being something that
If you have watched it, go back to the 10 minute mark. Chris talks about why this is happening today as opposed to being something that
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