Thread by @ashishkjha

Quick update on state of pandemic in the US

National picture has turned mixed

Bad news: rapid declines in cases has plateaued

Over past 2 weeks, new infections flat at about 75K per day

The good news?

Early in November, we're flat

Could be much worse. Could be 2020

Thread

If we compare same two months to last year, we see a very different picture

Last year at this time, infection numbers were taking off!

Doubling every 3 weeks

We were on a steep acceleration

This year, we have the FAR more contagious Delta

Schools are open

And we're flat!

You all know why

Nearly 60% of Americans now fully vaccinated

So as the air gets cold and dry

The virus, spreading more efficiently, keeps running into walls of vaccinated people

And can't accelerate

If you look at the state picture, this becomes clearer

Nationally, you can the South has really cooled off

And its the Midwest and great plains states that have high infection rates

This really shows up when you look at individual state-level data

If you look at the 14 states with the highest new infections per capita

You can see that most are in the colder parts of the country

And the top 5 all have below average vaccination rates

And highly vaxxed states seeing outbreaks in less vaccinated communities of those states

So here's how to think about it:

The weather is getting colder

People heading indoors

Social interactions increasing

Last year, this meant the virus took off!

This year, we have a way worse variant (Delta)

But lots of folks vaxxed

And so we're in a stalemate

5/6

Over next couple of months, as we go into the holidays

Social interactions will push infections up more

But if we can get:

More adults vaccinated
Kids vaccinated
Folks boosted
Ubiquitous testing
Masking in high risk situations

We can definitely avoid another winter surge

End