SAINIK Profile picture
8 Nov, 11 tweets, 2 min read
1. CRYPTOMANIA : Excerpts from the CH discussion on 7th Nov Sunday. Covered history, different facets & finally my opinion.@VohiCapital
2. Bitcoin started in 2008 as a counter to "Fiat" currencies. " No owner, No Authority, Owned by the Crowd ". Really took off in 2010 when the 'Occupy Wall Street" movement was in full swing
3. The spectacular rise has paralleled the "easy money" policies by the CBs. $ 100 invested in 2010 is worth $ 80 MILLION today. BITCOIN is getting scarcity premium since only 21 million coins can be mined in totality.
4.Buffett : Cryptos are not storage of value; Do not meet the test of a currency ; Can be used for illegal purposes; Would have bought 5 year PUTS if possible.
5. Taleb : Blockchain tech is NOT NEW; Not a currency since they are expensive to trade & slow for validation; Too volatile ; Not comparable to a security ( 15 times more volatile than S&P 500 since 2010 ). Inverse correlation with Gold hence not a hedge.
6. Gary Gensler SEC : "Cryptos are highly speculative assets but are a store house of value just like Gold" ( seems to have gone off his rockers).
7. Myths 1.Not Real Money (Too many choices: 13k types of Cryptos). 2 Not an Investment in the real sense ( Passing the Parcel) 3. Bitcoin will fade & Memes will rule (50 % vols in Bitcoin)4.Cryptos will displace $ ($ is backed by CBs)5. Safe Haven(Data available with Govt)
8. Cryptos were banned under previous RBI Gov in 2018. Lobbying by interested parties got SC to overturn ban IN 2020. Current RBI/Govt pussyfooting on the issue. They are not illegal but NOT REGULATED.
9. No regulation in the past has created havoc with Investors money ( MLM schemes; Teak/Sheep/Rose farming schemes ). Govt/RBI/SEBI wake up after the "horse has bolted" & the picture is likely to repeat.
10.Meanwhile, money may shift from Small Caps to Cryptos since the momentum is greater there. Cautioned everyone that this Ponzi scheme will collapse in a matter of months just like the Tulip craze. Uninformed Investors; Unlimited Greed; Uncaring Regulators is a deadly cocktail
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More from @sainik636

4 Nov
1. How excesses can build up in a short time & the after effects. NIKKEI :
2. SHANGHAI COMPOSITE :
3. CAC ( France )
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
@_prashantnair @dugalira 1. Summary of the CH session on 27/10/2021. " Mega IPOs & Market Tops". Examples of 5 Mega IPOs since '94. Chicken & Egg situation. Did the Mega IPOs come at the TOP or a Roaring Bull Market create the condition for Mega IPOs ?. 🤔
2. 1994: MSGF : Planned 300 cr. Raised 1000 cr. Closed ended Fund; Grey Mkt Premium : 500%. Black Mkt for Application Forms. Some applied by Xeroxing the Original App. Forms😷. NAV always below par thro' the entire period of 15 years.😳Sensex dropped by 15 % in the next 4 months
3. 2006.: Rel. Petro : Rs. 8100 cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed 51 times. Despite SEBI restrictions on P-Notes, the market was bullish till it got listed on 11th May 2006. Nifty fell 30 % over the subsequent 30 days.
Read 9 tweets
26 Oct
1.Everyone is disturbed by the plethora of Crypto ads which are on during the T-20 games. The Celebrities who are endorsing Cryptos seem blissfully unaware of the illegality of their actions. Time has come to remind them that they are not above the Law. @dugalira @kaul_vivek
2."All cyber activities or online gambling in India are regulated under the IT Act 2000. The Act prohibits online gambling activities & prescribes a punishment for persons indulging in such activities, would be fined Rs. 100,000 or would receive imprisonment of up to 5 years"
3.Why not implement the provisions of the Law on the Celebrities and show them the consequences of their actions since many naïve people may get trapped based on the message of the medium?. It is likely to have an immediate effect & the ads would stop. No?@RBI @SEBI_India
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
1. NIFTY FIFTY : Excerpted from an article by Stewart Investors. There was a category called 'Nifty Fifty" in the US too in the 60's & 70's.
The Nifty Fifty was a group of 50 stocks identified by market commentators, although it was never an official benchmark index.
2.The companies shared similar characteristics: high quality franchises benefitting from surging economic growth and strong balance sheets. Delivering healthy profits and good returns for investors year after year, they came to trade on very high valuations.
3. It was said by many investors at the time that Nifty Fifty stocks should be bought and never sold. By the early 1970s they had become the darlings of many institutional investors and staples of their portfolios.
Read 13 tweets
19 Oct
1. Momentum Investing: @deepakshenoy. I had Dinner with Deepak on 24th July & for more than 3 hours discussed anything & everything on the markets. Raised the issue of Small Case portfolios being negatively affected due to SEBI margining starting from Sep & affecting liquidity.
2. He was cool & collected as usual & said he would be able to manage the volatility since he has done that in the past & would get concerned only if the Small Cap Index starts trading down 10%+. Come August my fears seemed to be coming true (down 8 %),however Deepak held on.
3. The Aug. fall seemed to be an aberration. Soon after, the market took off & has gone up by nearly 10 % as of today over Jul 23rd. Kudos to him for being methodical in his approach. Was surprised that he was receiving "gyan" on his momentum approach.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
1.Interesting to note that D-Mart is making new highs on a day its rival is planning to open 7-11 stores in a BIG WAY. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
2. Interesting to note a company which uses Coal as a RM going up when there are reports of huge Coal shortage. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
3. Interesting to note an Index which is very interest rate sensitive making an ATH when the 10 y yield reaches a 6 month high. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market.
Read 8 tweets

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