Y'day BBC + Guardian gave two hugely different assessments of the impact on warming from #COP26Glasgow negotiations. @BBCNews reported an IEnergyA prediction of 1.8 degs. Guardian a Climate Action Tracker estimate of 2.4degs. Both are WRONG. Why? (1) theguardian.com/environment/20…
1. The IEA estimate assumes that all promises made by all countries will be fully met. This has never happened in the past. The Guardian CAT estimate of 2.4 degs is at least more realistic. (2)
2. The International Panel on Climate Change scientists always ask for a range of estimates, not a single figure.
3. Country estimates of their carbon performance are deeply flawed. washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro… (3)
4. Many sectors base their forecasts on completely unrealistic measures of 'offsetting' i.e burning fossil fuels but compensating by planting trees or buying 'carbon credits' from others. The COP negotiations need to address the problem of offsetting in 'net zero' estimates. (4)
5. On the optimistic side, big financial institutions are at COP26, and must realise the threats to their own survival and to the world economy. They ought to see the importance of keeping fossil fuels in the ground rather than relying on flaky estimates of net zero. (5)

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More from @globalhlthtwit

6 Nov
My BMJ article ‘ WHO in its present form is not fit for purpose—an essay by Anthony Costello’ is behind a members paywall. if you want to read it, it is copied here. Page 1.
Page 2
Page 3
Read 12 tweets
5 Nov
Voices from Glasgow. A pictorial thread
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov
At #COP26Glasgow South Africa express deep concern about the Green Climate Fund. That it reflects the interests of donors far more than recipient countries.
Gabon complain that the Green Climate Fund is not listening to them about proposed transition projects.
Rwanda ask why it has taken over 3 years for them to be assessed within the GCF
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
Net Zero? Hmmmm. It means balancing carbon emissions with negative emission technologies or natural sinks like trees. But there are several reasons to be suspicious. (1)
First, companies mislead about their levels of emissions. Yesterday FT reported that Shell and other companies report their tankers full of oil are greenwashed as 'carbon neutral' because the transport costs are offset...without assessing the emissions from the oil itself... (2) Image
Second how reliable are the carbon capture and storage technologies or their projected efficiency in future? In 2007 we were told CCS would solve the problem by now. We are a long way off. (3)
Read 8 tweets
3 Nov
John Kerry, President of Palau in S. Pacific + Panama’s foreign minister address the ocean-climate crisis. Oceans control our climate and our oxygen.
Panama one of only two countries that see whales from both poles.
John Kerry says climate ambition must be elevated. 51% of oxygen we breathe comes from the oceans. Our fishing practices are horrendous. Shipping 8th largest emitter on the planet. C free ships being built now by Maersk.
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
THOSE 4 COP 26 GOALS for our children's future.
1. Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach:
- accelerate the phase-out of coal
- curtail deforestation
- speed up the switch to electric vehicles
- encourage investment in renewables.
2. Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats. At COP26 we must:
- protect + restore ecosystems
- build defences, warning systems and resilient infrastructure and agriculture to avoid loss of homes, livelihoods and even lives
3. Mobilise finance
- Developed countries must make good on their Paris promise to mobilise at least $100bn in climate finance PER YEAR.
- International financial institutions must unleash the trillions in private and public sector finance required to secure global net zero.
Read 4 tweets

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