Thread by @RhettShipp

1/ Unpopular Opinion: Real Estate will be one of the worst performing asset classes over the next 30 years (in the US).

Reasons:

2/ First, demographics. This is by far the largest issue. The US has had a low and falling birth rate for a long time and the baby boomers, a massive generation, will start dying over the next 10-30 years.

3/ The US could combat this piece by increasing the number of immigrants we're bringing in, but we're going the wrong direction on that.

4/ Second, interest rates. Over 40-ish years, we've had consistently falling interest rates. This put upward pressure on real estate as borrowing has become cheaper over time. We've bottomed out on rates and are likely to never have that kind of bull pressure ever again.

5/ Third, technology. As 3D printing houses improves and we have other improvements in building and materials, building new homes will become much cheaper. If I can build a nice brand new home for very cheap, why would I pay a lot of money for a worse home built 50 years ago?

6/ One counter point: Aren't assets like homes a good hedge against inflation? And isn't inflation risk high? I think yes, inflation risk is high and assets are a good protection against that. But some assets are better than others.

7/ From worst to best inflation hedges, I think:
cash -> bonds -> real estate -> commodities -> equities -> crypto
So yes, owning a home will be a better inflation hedge than sitting on cash, but much worse than many other asset classes.

8/ Note: if the US reverses immigration policy/attitudes and/or figures out radical life extension in the next few decades I'll change my mind.
Opposing opinions welcome. I'm interested to hear the bull case for real estate.