The total value of all cryptocurrency assets has just exceeded $3 trillion.

This means the entire crypto sector is around 20% more valuable than the equity of the two biggest tech companies -- Apple and Microsoft -- put together trib.al/VUnXork
The previous crypto bull run peaked at the end of 2017 at about $800 billion.

In 2018, crypto crashed almost 90%. But over the next three years, crypto recouped the lost ground and is back at its peak valuation compared to tech companies trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
One way to analyze crypto valuation is to consider the sector like a tech company.

There are thousands of ideas out there: Some are traditional services that crypto can arguably deliver cheaper and better than centralized finance, others are entirely new trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
The potential of crypto is far greater than any one company today, but the risk is far higher.

Crypto may never generate significant profits to investors, while Apple and Microsoft have large revenues and profits trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
Taking this view, you have to be an optimist to like crypto at these prices:

➡️Price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is near all-time highs
➡️Tech valuations are stratospheric
➡️Crypto is selling at its all-time high ratio to the largest tech companies trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
Another way to get a handle on crypto value is to consider it a separate economy.

The less certain you are about the value of something, the more important it is to pick a value and stick with it trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
Today, crypto is about 3% of total global equity value, so you could keep 3% of your portfolio allocated to crypto.

Someone who sees a bigger future for crypto might find it fairly priced -- or even undervalued
trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
Another valuation approach to crypto is as an alternative to the traditional financial system.

From this perspective, crypto is worth $3 trillion because dollars are less solid than they used to be, not because crypto has developed better than expected
trib.al/p8LQVoz Image
There is a case for optimists that crypto can go up from here.

And there’s a case for pessimists that high traditional asset valuations and shaky traditional currencies make crypto worth its high prices
trib.al/p8LQVoz

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Bloomberg Opinion

Bloomberg Opinion Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bopinion

13 Nov
It's conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy is built on Americans' endless appetite to buy lots of stuff.

Household consumption makes up 67% of GDP. When the economy falters, we're told spending is our patriotic duty. But it doesn't have to be this way trib.al/gIDH2vV
Suddenly, Americans can’t spend like they used to. Store shelves are emptying, and it can take months to find a car, refrigerator or sofa.

If this continues, we may need to — gasp! — live more like the Europeans. That actually might not be a bad thing trib.al/gIDH2vV Image
Americans haven't always acted like this.

Consumption per capita grew about 65% from 1990 to 2015, compared with about 35% growth in Europe. Household consumption makes up only about 50% of GDP in Germany trib.al/gIDH2vV Image
Read 12 tweets
10 Nov
In the U.S., 23% of women return to work within 10 days of giving birth, and 40% percent of maternal deaths occur in the six weeks following birth.

Paid leave can help solve the maternal mortality crisis trib.al/Nkq1Ju1
The U.S. ranks last among high-income nations in maternal mortality rates, despite spending more than $111 billion on maternal and infant health care per year.

A closer look at the data shows that Black women lead these numbers trib.al/IOXN7ph A mother speaks with her da...
Black women are two to three times more likely than White women to die in childbirth or from pregnancy-related complications.

Solving this crisis is essential for bringing down America’s high maternal mortality rate trib.al/IOXN7ph Image
Read 11 tweets
8 Nov
💉 If only we had a vaccine for cancer, people have said. Oh, wait, we do.

And now a major study has shown just how effective it is trib.al/R1YsHor
In 2008, the U.K. began offering girls ages 12 and 13 an immunization against the human papillomavirus -- which is the cause of nearly all cervical cancer.

The vaccine was later rolled out in a catch-up program to older girls and, since 2019, to boys trib.al/OrKqUJs
The HPV vaccine had a dramatic effect on rates of cervical cancer, with an 87% reduction in those who were offered the vaccine at ages 12-13, according to data from a population-based cancer registry taken from 2006 to 2019 trib.al/OrKqUJs
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
Vaccine opponents are seizing on the death of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who was fully vaccinated yet died of Covid-19 complications, to cast doubt on the vaccination effort against the virus.

These people are dangerously wrong. Here’s why:
trib.al/vEstvdB
The death of someone like Powell, who was 84 and fighting multiple myeloma, a blood cancer that significantly hampers the immune system, is a potent argument to vaccinate as broadly as possible trib.al/vEstvdB
Data from the CDC makes it abundantly clear that while fully vaccinated people can contract Covid, it’s far less common.

In fact, it was six times less common than in the unvaccinated in August across all age groups trib.al/vEstvdB
Read 11 tweets
17 Oct
It’s only a matter of time before New York gets a storm that brings both high seas and heavy rains.

Is the city ready? trib.al/rNx7JKU
Hurricane Ida put an exclamation point on realities that New York was already grappling with.

Like other parts of the world, the city is confronting more than calamitous extreme events. It’s the drip, drip of “the chronic worsening of average conditions”
trib.al/JgcjfKN Image
The NYC Stormwater Resiliency Plan says that weatherwise, the scale of everything has changed.

The city’s current infrastructure — its roads, subway tunnels, sewer systems, storm drains — isn't built to withstand the climate-related ravages to come trib.al/JgcjfKN Image
Read 11 tweets
15 Oct
There are roughly a million qualified immigrant workers waiting to get visas to work in the United States.

About 80,000 green cards will go to waste if Congress doesn’t act soon trib.al/yeaVAIa
The Biden administration has acknowledged that in the last fiscal year, the U.S. failed to issue green cards to legal immigrant workers.

The shortfall adds to a backlog of more than 1 million people waiting to receive employment-based visas trib.al/yeaVAIa
Congress should ensure those green cards are used. The Biden administration should also create a streamlined approval process for immigrants.

This means, among other things, upgrading technology to allow applicants to file paperwork online trib.al/yeaVAIa
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(