Right. Our rental is in the country and I need a country person to tell me WHY DO THE COWS MOO ALL NIGHT LONG AND CAN THEY NOT PLEASE🐮🥱
…and a cockerel at 5am fml
The culprits, so brazen, still mooing.

I may need a couple days to be sure they’re the same lot of cows, but I’m sure there were 3 calves with them yesterday.

Could they have separated the babies from the mummy cows? Image
UPDATE: all quiet on the cow front tonight.

Genuine thanks for the very informative cow & farming replies! I have learned a lot. Mainly that the countryside is loud as hell.

Calf Watch will continue tomorrow…

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More from @kallmemeg

8 Nov
NEW: Household transmission of Delta vs Alpha now published 😊

Odds of household transmission 70% higher for Delta vs Alpha

{18 Mar - 7 June, 10,518 Alpha and 7,410 Delta cases}

5 Tweet 🧵

thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
This is an update to the analysis first in Tech Brief 15 and preprinted here; the source of the “63% more transmissible” stat:

khub.net/documents/1359…
Why has the % increased?

The analysis was updated to:

• exclude households of 1 (who couldn’t transmit in the household)

• extended study period to June to include more Delta cases, and reflect a time with more community transmission (via travel imports)
Read 5 tweets
29 Oct
*~*VARIANT UPDATE*~*

Happy Friday! NEW @UKHSA report focussing on AY.4.2

Technical Briefing 27 - AY.4.2
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
NEW addition this week is Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) of AY.4.2

• No evidence that VE (infection) is lower for AY4.2 vs OG Delta after 2 doses of vaccine

• Holds true for both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection

• Adjusted for age, sex, CEV, week of test, & other factors
By vaccine type: 💉

• No change in for AstraZeneca or Moderna

• Pfizer VE aOR=1.12 (95%CI 1.0-1.16) for symptomatic infection, so a possible borderline reduction.

• But in real terms an OR=1.12 equates to a reduction in Pfizer VE from 83% to 81%.

Negligible impact.
Read 8 tweets
26 Oct
💭 on reinfections

We can only count the data we have.

Only 1 in 4 infections were tested during pandemic (est)

Many were missed in the first wave - but even now we only catch 50-70%

Even if/when we count re-infections it will be 300-400/day which will not change policy a jot
If we want to be able count reinfections accurately we need a lab record for each infection.

That means we need the whole population to test regularly & report their results.

Too ambitious? Then we need to accept the limitations.

It is what it is.

#realworldsurveillance
A more realistic option is modelling using population surveys either self-reported (bit dodgy) or N/S antibody sampling.

I know Zoe and ONS are undertaking these studies using their own methods.
Read 5 tweets
25 Oct
💭 on the recent decline in cases in children {eg graph by @JamesWard73}

Cases starting to fall in under-20s

My knee-jerk reaction is CONCLUDE NOTHING IT IS HALF TERM!

That the decline precedes half-term by a week could be avoidance of testing to avoid ruining holidays…

1/3
And under-20 is a huge age group.

HOWEVER, unpicking into 5 year age bands shows a similar decline in all groups, even in the long-suffering 10-14 year olds.

Biggest drop *MAY* even be in 10-14?

{but far be it for me to draw conclusion from 1 day of data…😉}

2/3
Could this decline be real? MAYBE, JUST MAYBE

Comparing @MRC_BSU modelled attack rates from now vs before school started:

{attack rate = the % of that population ever infected}

In only 2 months, half of children aged 5-14 in England were infected (estimated)

3/3
Read 10 tweets
23 Oct
*~*VARIANT UPDATE*~*
I took a little break from these but back with an important new report

@ukhsa has designated AY4.2 a VUI

VUI-21OCT-01

Let’s break it down 🧵 ⤵️

Technical Briefing 26 - AY.4.2
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
AY.4.2 is a Delta sub-lineage (meaning it’s Delta but with a few new mutations)

AY.4.2 came to attention *not* because these particular mutations are known to be concerning (they are not)

But because the number of cases observed indicate it can compete with OG Delta
So: what’s the epidemiology?

• 15,120 cases in England

• First seen in July 2021

• Dispersed across the country

• Not associated with travel - either home grown or already had so many incursions from abroad that it’s spreading via community transmission now
Read 13 tweets
21 Oct
Before we hit panic button there are sensible public health measures we could start NOW to curb infections:

• reintroduce masks indoors
• encouraging work from home
• speed up booster roll-out
• allowing 12-15 year olds to start booking at vaccination centres NOW
I am not aware of any economic impact of these measures.

Resistance to these measures is purely a libertarian flex and I’m sorry* but there will be a point when the public interest must override that.

(*Sorry not sorry)
I would add all the things on Rob’s list as well, especially sick pay ⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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