Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid Thread
No more talk of ripples or wavelets. The fifth wave of Covid-19 infection is here – although still weak in France compared to Austria, Germany or NL. New cases in Fr averaged 8,739 in the last week, compared to 6,592 a week ago – a 32.5% increase.
1/10

The health minister, Olivier Véran, said on Wed that it “looked like the 5th wave” of the pandemic was upon us. He thought that it could be contained. As yet, Fr has no plans for new restrictions, unlike NL (curfews on shops/bars etc) or Austria (lockdown for the unvaxxed) 2/10

Last Monday President Macron made booster shots for the over 65s a requirement of the health pass from 15 Dec. There since has been a stampede by non 3rd-vaxxed oldies – up to 200,000 jabs a day, double last week. There are still, however, circa 1.5m non-boosted over 65’s. 3/10

The reasons for the new wave – despite high vax levels in W Europe – are uncertain. Colder weather? Eroding vax protection? It’s also unclear why some countries are worse afflicted then others. Less observant of social distancing rules? See FR v NL comparison below. 4/10

Cases in UK – once worst in W Europe – are falling fast but not yet deaths/acute cases. See @Nicolasberrod graph of Fr v UK figures this year. If the pattern continues – a Fr peak lower than UK and a month behind – cases here should double to 20,000+ a day. And then fall. 5/10

The rise in C19 cases in Fr has not yet had a big impact on acute cases/deaths. Cases in acute care were 1,182 last night compared to 1,089 and 1,010 in the last 2 weeks. Deaths in hospital are 34 a day, compared to 33, 29 and 27 in previous weeks. This will change. 6/10

First vax shots have crept up to 51,496,116 – 89.9% of the adult population, 88.7% of those eligible (ie over 12’s) and 76.4% of the entire pop. But Fr is still behind on vaccinating the v elderly – “only” 86.8% of over 80’s are 1st-vaxxed, compared to 97.6% of 75-79’s. 7/10

1st vax shots have crept up to 51,496,116 – 89.9% of the adult population, 88.7% of those eligible (ie over 12’s) and 76.4% of entire population. But Fr is still behind on vaccinating the v elderly – “only” 86.8% of over 80’s are 1st-vaxxed, compared to 97.6% of 75-79’s. 7/10

This relatively low rate of vaxxing for the v. old is a worry. It could produce a big spike in deaths among unprotected Fr 80pluses this winter. The table below shows a death rate of 1 in 3 for all over-80’s hospitalised for Covid in 2020 – ie before the vax programme began. 8/10

Some clarification on booster doses and the health pass. From 15 Dec over-65’s will lose their pass 6 months and 5 weeks after their 2nd shot - unless they get a booster. Does this apply to foreign visitors? No definite word but I’m told that it WON’T. It’s too hard to apply 9/10

Hang in there. 10/10