1. The Big Fights:

Habituation: when people become accustomed to poor governance, hardship & mediocrity they end up thinking it’s normal. Some don’t know it’s abnormal because that’s all they know. When people habituate, they become placid. You can’t fight what you’re used to.
2. The big fights:

Fatigue: when people have voted in past elections & their voices were thwarted, they might believe their votes won’t make a difference. They become apathetic. You have to give them reason to believe that it will make a difference; that they mustn’t give up.
3. The big fights:

Fear: when elections have been a life and death affair; relatives & friends killed or maimed during campaigns, fear becomes a part of their lives. It controls them. The regime just sends reminders. You must give people the reason & motivation to overcome fear.
4. The big fights:

Bribery: towards elections politicians suddenly develop the urge for generosity. It’s bribery. Advise people to cheerfully accept these handouts & chow them. But remind them that in the polling booth, their vote is their secret. Take the gifts but vote wisely.
5. The big fights:

Propaganda: it comes naturally to the regime though it has become clumsier. There will be more in future. You have to debunk propaganda. Social media has changed the game a lot. But remember the regime’s audience is rural so countermeasures must get there.
6. The big fights:

Biased referee: it’s no secret that ZEC, the referee is weak, compromised & biased. But biased referees are not new in contests. Teams have won contests despite bias. You must develop countermeasures. Have credible, resolute & bribe-resistant polling agents.
7. The big fights:

Traditional leaders: in rural areas headmen are known to organise poor villagers into voting lines, to say Jane votes after John & sometimes to be assisted. It’s important to convince these folks that they can still make their choices in secret.
8. Some will say you left out the military. The military is made up of people: elites & ordinary. Only a few elites are comfortable but some can’t even pay school fees for their kids at their preferred schools. Ordinary soldiers are dirt poor & suffering just like everyone else.
9. In any event, the 6 big fights are things that are within people’s control. The golden rule is to focus on what’s within your control. Fight habituation, fatigue and apathy, fear, propaganda. Find ways to deal with bribery & how to overcome a biased political referee.

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More from @Wamagaisa

6 Nov
1. I have seen Mnangagwa’s response to Musengezi’s challenge regarding his legitimacy as ZANU PF leader. It seems to me that the question of presidential immunity which he is raising is a sideshow that does not affect the core case. The case does not stand/fall on his immunity.
2. Musengezi sued ZANU PF, Mnangagwa & other party officers. Let’s assume for a moment that Mnangagwa’s immunity defence is valid, it doesn’t apply to ZANU PF & the other parties. They must answer the law suit & the must decide whether their conduct was lawful.
3. The outcome will still be consequential upon Mnangagwa. Musengezi is relying on the Mashavira case against the MDC-T. Just like Mashavira, Musengezi sued the party & its officers. The Mashavira court directed party officers to correct past irregularities of the party.
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
Having listened to Sybeth Musengezi, here are a few observations:
1. We were not far off at the BSR when we suggested there are several signs of trouble in House Mnangagwa. Musengezi is a smart, articulate & well-prepared chap. He has done his homework. But he’s NOT a lone wolf.
2. He’s a well-trained proverbial tortoise, but not even the smartest tortoise can climb to the top of the fence post on its own. Someone helps it to get up there. An application like this would have taken several meetings of well-organised people to plan & execute.
3. Other tortoises usually lend their name to an application & remain in the background. They have no voice, even when they are challenging individuals without state power. It’s more than bravery for Musengezi to take up such a public platform as the SABC. What is the reason?
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6 Oct
The adviser’s burden *Long thread (mini-BSR!)

1. I always liken the job of an adviser to that of the proverbial “water-carrier” in football. You work hard and win the ball in order to pass it on to the players in front. They score & they get the individual glory & accolades.
2. The adviser is not a friend of the principal. They might be mates outside but at work they are not. It isn’t their job to stroke the principal’s ego or to make supporters happy. In fact, the adviser must always be alert to the red flags & point them out without fear or favour.
3. The moment they try to please the principal or supporters, they become part of the problem. When you advise you have to tell the principal & supporters things they don’t want to hear. Because if you don’t warn them of their worst nightmare, you’ll all walk blindly into it.
Read 23 tweets
3 Sep
1. This man reminds me of Unoka in Achebe’s Things Fall Apart. His son Okonkwo was embarrassed by him. He was perennially in debt & didn’t care. He was lazy and constantly borrowing from friends and neighbours. He didn’t pay back. Always looking for favours.
2. One day a creditor came to collect his debt. Unoka dismissed him. “Look at that wall," Unoka said pointing to the wall of his hut. "Look at those lines of chalk". Okoye, the creditor saw groups of lines drawn in chalk.
3. Unoka took some snuff & sneezed dramatically & said, “Each group there represents a debt to someone and each stroke is one hundred cowries. You see, I owe that man a thousand cowries. But he has not come to wake me up in the morning for it. I shall pay you, but not today”
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27 Aug
Understanding Pseudo-operations in politics

1. Dealing with an authoritarian regime is tricky business. In war, there’s a thing called pseudo operations. This is where the army creates teams that are disguised as guerrillas in order to penetrate guerrilla-controlled units.
2. Pseudo-operators pretend to be guerrillas. People unwittingly accept them as “our own”. But they gather intelligence. They might do damage which is attributed to the side they are pretending to be. The Selous Scouts were masters at this during the 1970s liberation war.
3. Some of the most devastating massacres, such as Nyadzon’a were a result of these counterinsurgency operations led by pseudo operators. Some pseudo operators were “turned guerrillas” the most infamous of them being Morrison Nyathi. Pseudo operations didn’t stop after the war.
Read 10 tweets
25 Aug
Covid, Education & Politics

1. That the COVID-19 pandemic has wrecked havoc & caused immense disruption around the world is common cause. That humanity must learn to live with COVID-19 is also apparent because it’s not going to go away anytime soon.
2. Therefore the tough restrictions that were imposed in many states are now getting lifted as more people get vaccinated & other measures are developed to deal with the pandemic. Humans are social animals & they can’t be kept in enclosures for too long without causing problems.
3. However, for some states that are ruled by authoritarian regimes, the pandemic is an opportunity. It provides justification for maintaining restrictions on citizens. Therefore while some states are trying to lift restrictions, others are keen to maintain them.
Read 13 tweets

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