Kintsugi Investing Profile picture
Nov 15, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Before going into $SE Q3 earnings...

Here's a review of last quarter's transcript (Q2 2021)

I hope this helps refresh your memory.

Here's 5 things that stood out that's good to keep in mind:
1. Free fire is not affected by competing battle royale mobile games

FF has competitors since some time back.

But they don't see any effect because people don't treat FF just like a shooter game.

It's a place where they go to hangout and socialize, enjoy new content.
2. Much more room for monetization

Shopee still has lots of ad inventory.

Many of their sellers are not educated about ads and promotions.

So penetration is still low, and there's a long runway ahead to monetize.

They don't have to raise commissions and taxes just to make $$.
3. Buying frequency in Indonesia is now 7x a month

This number was 4-5x a month last year.

It's now increased to 7x a month.

Shows the stickiness of the platform, and enduring habits kicking in.
4. Their ads and marketing spend are strategic

It's NOT just a defensive move

Some time back:

There was concern that a key risk for Shopee is if they stop spending on S&M, they will lose share to competitors.

It doesn't seem so now.
It's more of a managed outcome now.

They are spending to capture more users during festive seasons

Example: during Ramadan, where the ROI will be more efficient.

It's more of a strategic play.
5. Consistent thesis: go for scale and dominance, profits come naturally

YJ wang has been repeating this across several earnings calls.

The thesis is still the same.

And they have been consistent in their messaging.

Tells me their priorities are clear and focused:
Go for scale and dominance first...

And profits will take care of itself later.

Evidence of this playbook taking shape:

Malaysia EBITDA positive (before HQ costs), following in footsteps of Taiwan
If you like this, follow me at @heymaxkoh

I share my journey on:

- How I attained financial freedom before 30

- My investing strategies

- How I research companies to buy

Last but not least, always remember:

Buy everything on... (wait for it)...

Shopee - pi - pi - pi - pi!

• • •

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More from @kintsugiinvest

Jan 11
Buffett says Charlie Munger transformed him, from a value investor into a fortune builder.

Their shared secret?

Munger’s mental models that revolutionized their thinking.

I studied and distilled 15 of the best (out of 100s):

(You’d want to save this) Image
Image
1) Inversion

Start with what could go wrong.

Analyze potential failures before potential success.

When Munger evaluated BYD, he considered pitfalls like competition with Tesla.

Do this: List their key risks and mitigation strategies before any major decision.
2) Circle of Competence

Know your strengths

Focus on areas you excel in and avoid decisions outside your expertise.

Berkshire stuck to consumer goods, consistently achieving 20% returns for decades.

Do this: Identify your top 3 areas of expertise and work within them.
Read 19 tweets
Jan 8
Howard Marks just released his new memo.

Yes, the ones that even Buffett reads.

Here's a 2 min summary of the 5000-word masterpiece:🧵 Image
1) "What is a bubble?"

For Marks, a bubble is not just about high prices; it’s a state of mind.

Key signs:
• "No price too high" thinking
• FOMO driving investments
• Blind faith in "this time is different"

Psychology > numbers.
2) The 3 stages of a bull market

1️⃣ Few believe recovery is possible.
2️⃣ Improvement gains broader acceptance.
3️⃣ Everyone is convinced "things can only get better forever."

Marks warns: optimism can morph into dangerous euphoria.
Read 15 tweets
Dec 26, 2024
I analyzed 400+ acquisitions Berkshire made from 1965–2024

And found the exact criteria Buffett uses.

His “secret” checklist is hiding in plain sight.

Let me show you (You might want to save this): Image
Image
1. Hoard cash years before crashes

In 2006, Berkshire held $43B in cash.

By 2007, it was up to $47B.

By Q3 2024, Berkshire’s cash reserves reached a record $320.3B.

History rhymes. Image
2. Write put options during peak fear

In 2008, Buffett collected $4.9B in premiums writing puts on the S&P 500.

Continue to use similar strategies during market uncertainty in recent years.

Making money from others’ panic. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 20, 2023
This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:
1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key
2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
One of the great investors of our time: Li Lu

During his talks at CBS and Peking Uni, he’s shared many of his thoughts on:

- Researching a stock
- Thinking like an owner
- Behaviours of a good investor

Here’s a breakdown of 15 of his investing mental models:
1. Think Like a Business Owner

Your fortunes go up and down with the nature of the business.

You don’t think of yourself as a paper shuffler.

But instead, as a real owner.

And because you only own a small piece, you need a margin of safety before buying in.
2. You Are a Researcher More Than an Investor

Most of your time is spent reading.

You operate more like a field detective and journalist.

This helps you understand a business well so you can own it with conviction.
Read 21 tweets
Jan 11, 2023
How to read an Annual Report in 1 hour.

A step by step guide for busy people:

(also for investing newbies)
1. For me, reading a 10k is purely to understand one thing:

A company's business model.

That's it.

This includes:

- what products they sell
- how they make $$
- basic unit economics

Fine tune your antenna to look for that.
2. Limit your time.

I find that 45-60 mins is a typical duration before I start feeling sleepy.

With this in mind, it creates urgency for me to move fast before steam runs out.

I become more selective of what I read in the 10K.

Which helps me remember the best ideas I need.
Read 13 tweets

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