NEW: @UKHSA study finds Pfizer booster is extremely effective against symptomatic infection, both compared to the unvaccinated and to those with 2 doses ft.com/content/8330da…
Whether first 2 doses were AZ or Pfizer, a Pfizer booster sends vaccine efficacy up to 93-94% 💪
Study was on people aged 50+, comparing those boosted ~5+ months after dose 2, to those @ 5+ months unboosted.
AZ efficacy was 61% after dose 2, waning to 44% @ 5 months.
Pfizer was 82% after dose 2, waning to 63% @ 5 months.
2 wks after Pfizer booster, both groups -> 93-94%!
Best way to think about booster impact is not to look at going from 44 to 93 with AZ, i.e roughly doubling, but invert the numbers and go from (100-44) to (100-93), i.e from relative risk vs unvaxxed of 56% to just 7%
That’s an 87% increase in protection *relative to two doses!*
More importantly, level of protection after a booster is *much higher* than it was even at peak level just after second dose.
For AZ, relative risk just after dose 2 was 39%, now it’s 7% — an 82% reduction.
For Pfizer, RR just after d2 was 18%, now it’s 6% — a 67% reduction.
In other words, a booster isn’t just topping us back up to where we were after we got our second dose (and remember how invincible that felt?), it’s taking us to higher levels of protection than we’ve ever seen.
Of course, big question is whether we’ll look back on this as first in a regular series of boosters, or the 3rd dose of a three-dose vaccine.
The higher levels of protection hint at this being a new dose rather than just a recurring top-up, but more time and research are needed.
One more note: the new study (and all numbers I’ve quoted) are specific to symptomatic infection with the Delta variant.
Oh, and even though this study only looked at efficacy against infection, not hospitalisation or death, we would strongly expect the same pattern to emerge there, even if only as a function of infection risk falling (and thus fewer people being susceptible to severe disease).
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For all the talk of a general fall in births, the drop is overwhelmingly driven by people on the left having fewer kids.
By ceding the topic of family and children to the right, progressives risk ushering in a more conservative world.
There’s something of a paradox at play here.
On the one hand, pro-natalism often implies constraining individual liberty and setting back women’s progress. As such, the left’s aversion to worrying about birth rates is perfectly natural.
But: the consequence of this emerging ideological slant in birth rates is that each successive generation gets nudged rightwards, increasing the likelihood that conservative politicians (who want to constrain individual liberty and set back women’s progress) get elected.
NEW: Is the internet changing our personalities for the worse?
Conscientiousness and extroversion are down, neuroticism up, with young adults leading the charge.
This is a really consequential shift, and there’s a lot going on here, so let’s get into the weeds 🧵
First up, personality analysis can feel vague, and you might well ask why it even matters?
On the first of those, the finding of distinct personality traits is robust. This field of research has been around for decades and holds up pretty well, even across cultures.
On the second, studies consistently find personality shapes life outcomes.
In fact, personality traits — esp conscientiousness and neuroticism — are stronger predictors of career success, divorce and mortality than someone’s socio-economic background or cognitive abilities.
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
What’s going on?
At first glance, this looks like a case of the growing masses of male computer science graduates being uniquely exposed to the rapid adoption of generative AI in the tech sector, and finding jobs harder to come by than earlier cohorts.
The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border.
Denmark saw one of the steepest declines, in an indication that anger over Trump’s hostility towards Greenland may be contributing to the steep drop-off in visitor numbers.
Corporate quotes are usually pretty dry, but the co-founder of major travel website Kayak wasn’t mincing his words: