Now super strong 2000 vibes
That they think they’ll be around another 20y is…impressive hubris.
I suspect this will break in rough correlation with supply chain logjam being cleared. Not a cliff, more like a staircase ratchet down, as savings unwind and turn into demand fulfillment. This is as much about money having nowhere to go as it is about froth native to crypto.
Ie not quite an exact analogue to 2000. We were coming off sustained general prosperity then. Not pandemic for 99% + asset boom for 1%.

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More from @vgr

17 Nov
Anyone else have issues like this with the new MacBooks?
😬 is this the sort of thing that can be managed with an OS update or likely to be a design issue with the chip?
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Poll: What currently brewing tech boom interests you the most?
The correct answer is robotics, but I don’t expect everyone to get it yet
The metaverse is not popular
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Didn’t realize this had become (deservedly) a sort of Chinese Room level provocation that AGI types anxiously get into contortions to refute. Only recently realized though, that it is basically Goodhart’s law in AI context.
Fwiw I think this objection does in fact kill 90% of ideas for goal-directed AIs based on optimization. People who are arguing the semantics of how goals are not the same as reward functions miss the point. Optimization approaches force the degeneracy where they are the same.
The only approach I can think of that finesses this is Carse’s infinite game (“play to continue the game” as opposed to “play to win”). This is hard to formalize though. You basically want a turing complete system that tries to not halt. Sort of a looking-for-rule-110 thing.
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
The metaverse will need to be jailbroken to be usable at all
The longer I let the FB+Microsoft versions of the idea simmer the more hopelessly lame it seems. It’s like Q demonstrating cool hardware to James Bond before Bond himself puts it through its paces.
There’s got to be a better entry point.
Read 49 tweets
13 Nov
laziness is actually a mitigating adaptation for being a pushover
You can only pick 2 of 3: industrious, pushover, conflict-averse

Otherwise you’ll spend your life being manipulated

A lot of being a pushover comes from simply not having particularly strong burning desires. You’re vulnerable to being coopted by people who want more, more badly
When someone asks you to do something and you can’t claim you’re up to something more important (the only socially acceptable excuse) without picking a fight, “I’m le tired” is your go-to.
Read 4 tweets

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