Thread by @bellingcat

Today, Bellingcat & @the_ins_ru publish “Inside #Wagnergate” – a year-long investigation that establishes the circumstances around the Ukrainian operation to capture dozens of mercenaries who fought for Russia-supported military entities in Eastern Ukraine bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

We have established that the elaborate sting was conducted by Ukraine’s military intelligence service, GUR MOU, with support of the domestic intelligence agency, the SBU.

The plan was presented to Ukraine’s political leadership in June '20 & approved in early July '20
But the decision to delay the op in late July led to its spectacular demise
The mercenaries were detained in Belarus before they could be captured by Ukraine & repatriated to Russia

The timeline and context of the events chronicled in this investigation was compiled on the basis of dozens of interviews with participants in the sting operation as well as Russian mercenaries it sought to capture.
bellingcat.com/resources/2021…

Through false-flag recruitment for a defunct private military contractor (PMC), it aimed to lure at least 33 fighters Ukrainian authorities believed had committed serious crimes while fighting for Russia-supported military entities in the country’s East

The operation had begun as early as 2018 as a run-of-the-mill intelligence-gathering campaign by GUR MOU.
But by early 2020 it had morphed into an opportunistic sting operation targeting hundreds of mercenaries that would see them recruited for a fictional operation in Venezuela.

While in transit over Ukrainian airspace on the way to this concocted South American posting, the plane carrying the mercenaries would be forced to land by a fake bomb threat.
If all went to plan, the mercenaries would then be arrested when the plane touched down.

Over a period of several months eager mercenaries were vetted by the fake PMC set up by Ukrainian intelligence services, revealing a wealth of incriminating information about crimes they claimed to have committed in Donbas in the process.

The GUR MOU had surreptitiously co-opted a genuine but disused St Petersburg PMC to bait the mercenaries, registering a lookalike domain and cloning a website.
This also provided an email domain for communication with “employment” candidates.

Candidates were interviewed by a Ukrainian secret service operative named “Sergey Petrovich”.
But early recruitment options saw too many mercenaries who were not of direct interest to Ukraine apply.

A decision was taken to use some of the most promising candidates as proxy recruiters to attract more specific candidates of interest.
This saw Artyom Milyaev, a deputy commander of an assault brigade in the DNR bring more relevant targets to the project.

Combatants sent in resumes that contained direct admissions and details of how Russia’s hybrid war in Ukraine had developed.

Some militants described their arrival to Donbas in 2014 as “under the cover of rebels.” Others described their presence there as direct deployments by their regular Russian army units.

Many of the recruits also provided insider data on how the Russian government had provided support to and steered the operations of the ostensibly private Wagner PMC.

What’s more, they provided the names of commanding officers, photos of medals issued by the Kremlin.
Previously unseen video and photo materials of the downing of a Ukrainian military helicopter over the Donbas in 2014 was also provided.

With a selection of targets now in place, a plan was finalised to capture those of the highest interest.
The mercenaries would be transported from Russia to Belarus where they would board a plane bound for Istanbul on the first leg of the “journey” to Venezuela.

Minsk was chosen for departure as no flights out of Russia were available due to a Covid-19 lockdown.
The flight from Minsk would cross into Ukrainian airspace for roughly 28 minutes.
During this period, a bomb threat would be called in forcing the plane to land in Ukraine.

But as the mercenaries were on their way to Minsk in late July, a last minute change of plan was afoot in Kyiv

Vasily Burba, then director of GUR MOU, told Bellingcat that a postponement was requested by the Office of the President.

The reason given was that Zelensky had just reached an agreement with Russia and Russia-supported separatists for a ceasefire in Donbas.

If the sting operation would continue as planned, it was feared the ceasefire would be dead before it started.

A short delay was agreed to allow the ceasefire to come into force.

But this meant that the mercenaries would now have to wait in Minsk before the operation could proceed.

The arrival of a band of Russian mercenaries in Belarus raised eyebrows. Elections were due the following month and the situation was tense.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka feared plots to remove him from outside and within.

On the morning of July 29, Belarusian special forces stormed the hotel housing the unwitting mercenaries.

All were arrested and charged with plotting to overthrow the government and cause public riots with opposition figures.

With that, the daring Ukrainian op was over.

Although Ukraine sought to persuade Belarus to hand the mercenaries to them in the days that followed, they were eventually repatriated to Russia on August 16.

Bellingcat asked the Ukrainian government to respond to the details in this investigation but did not receive a response before publication. We are still open to publishing the official point of view of the office of the Ukrainian president.
bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

The Insiders' reporting on the story can be found below, and a Russian version of our reporting will be available soon. theins.ru/politika/246277

The Russian version of our article can be found here

https://twitter.com/bellingcat_ru/status/1461006092348100609