Thread by @cfishman

Just like Walmart yesterday, Target today reported big sales & strong shoppers—& predicted more for Xmas.

• Comparable sales: +12.7% on top of last year's 20.7%

• Digital sales: +28.9% on top of last year's 154.5% (!)

Target is fun & it's rollicking.

It's also small v. WMT.

2/ Even with the best year in its recent history, here's how Target looks:

2021 total sales will be ~ $110 billion (assuming a big holiday season).

Walmart did $141 billion in business *last quarter.*

Walmart sold more from Aug 1 through Oct 11 than Target will sell all year.

3/ The business media (inclu me) almost always talks about Walmart & Target—& Amazon, of course—as peers.

Remarkably, Walmart & Target were started the very same year (also the year Kmart was started).

1st store:

• WMT: July 2, 1962
• TGT: May 1, 1962
• Kmart: Jan 25, 1962

4/ Something like 70% of the stock at Walmart & Target — in stores — is the same.

But Target has cultivated different experience, different shopper.

Walmart is 5x Target — and through the pandemic, growing just as fast or faster.

Amazon is in the middle — and complicated.

5/ Amazon's retail sales are about $55 billion a quarter — twice Target's, about one-third of Walmart's.

But Amazon has as much non-retail revenue (advertising, web services) as retail. That gives it oomph.

And AMZN doesn't book 'marketplace' sales by *revenue* — only income.

6/ That isn't just a 'paperwork' distinction.

Amazon doesn't take 'credit' for the revenue of its marketplace sellers — if you buy something from a non-Amazon seller for $50, it only shows up in Amazon's sales as whatever revenue Amazon ultimately gets from the seller.

But…

7/ That means Amazon's 'portal' — its website, its warehouse, its infrastructure — is responsible for a lot more retail spending & revenue than the $55 billion / quarter.

Amazon is the bold, nimble competitor Walmart has never had — and the competitor Walmart has been itself.

8/ All of which is to take nothing away from Target.

A $110 billion retail powerhouse, a trendsetter. Where we live, there's not much opportunity to shop at Target, except the small 'urban' stores.

But one thing I've always appreciated about Target…

9/ When you go to check-out at Target, there is either a check-out line staffed & ready for you. Or you can get in line behind a customer who is actively being checked out—you're next!

That's huge, and it's intentional. Walmart spent years letting customers pile up to checkout.

10/ But Target is small compared to Walmart.

And WMT still has as much, or more, marketplace oomph as Amazon.

Reminder: Walmart's grocery sales grew 10% in the last 3 months. WMT already the largest grocer in the US, and to fight inflation, more people grocery shopping there.

11/ I've never seen a Target grocery section that was anything but perfunctory, satisfactory. A place to grab stuff to fill gaps in your pantry — but in no sense a full-service grocery experience.

Again — if you want a cute or distinctive lamp, TGT is your place.

12/ But worth keeping the comparisons in perspective.