Now that some attacks and battles are being led by the NUG, it will be interesting to see if they can make “Myanmar military” as contested a phrase as “Myanmar government”. In my opinion, this could be just as important as gaining international recognition. A 🧵
This is because it would completely change the debate around the use of violence by the anti-junta movement - a debate that is only possible due to the underlying belief that states have the exclusive right to use violence to enforce their will.
That’s why property seizure, prisons, and even the death penalty not generally seen as forms of violence, while even a firefight to keep soldiers from invading a village is seen as something that needs to be debated.
By virtue of being “the Myanmar military”, the Tatmadaw lays claim to that monopoly on violence and many who are otherwise sympathetic to the anti-junta movement end up reinforcing that claim through the act of seeking justification from anti-junta forces.
I would also argue that many people's insistance that the movement choose non-violence methods of resistance exclusively, are also (unintentionally) supporting that dynamic.
Of course, none of this means that any and all tactics used by anti-junta forces are acceptable. The increase in killings of bystanders, especially children, in recent months is henious, and the perpetrators of those crimes are no better than the Tatmadaw.
But if the NUG (and the PDFs under it) can successfully contest that title, then the conversation changes from “Myanmar’s military vs. civilians who have turned to violence” into one of two armies who can both lay claim to a “legitimate” right to use violence.
If the jump can be made from “Myanmar military vs. civilians” to “armed wing of the SAC vs. armed wing of the NUG”, it becomes infinitely more possible to eventually move the conversation to “the illegitimate armed group called the Tatmadaw vs. the Myanmar military”.
And all of that is important, because shifting that conversation can lead to material changes on the ground, like removing the fear that money or supplies will be used by “violent actors” for aid organizations.
This would also help the NUG’s quest for recognition on the international stage, because it opens up the argument that as government they have every right to defend the sovereignty of the nation.
Also, it would really upset the Tatmadaw, and that would be very funny.
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