Thread by @samtrner

Thread time again. 🧵

New annual DfE stats are out on children in care and care leavers today from the SSDA903 collection. I haven’t been on Twitter much recently, but folks seemed to find this helpful last year so…

…e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

The big message: there was a pandemic and turns out it had a significant impact on national trends in children’s social care.

Almost everything for the year ending 31 March 2021 needs a ‘Covid lens’ so we don’t draw too many year-on-year conclusions which won’t be maintained.

Overall, the numbers of children in care have grown again, albeit slightly less than in recent years.

There are now 80,850 children in care in England – an all-time high – and continuing a pattern of year-on-year growth since 2008.

The interplay of numbers *starting* to be looked after and *ceasing* to be looked after each year tells us *if* and *how* the care population is growing (or not).

Since 2017, both totals have been falling, but with numbers ceasing by a greater amount.

The difference here is the more dramatic decrease from 2020 for both totals owing to the pandemic impacts.

National lockdowns and slowdowns in family court proceedings means far fewer have been both entering and leaving care than normal.

This is clearly illustrated in the monthly totals when mapped against the preceding 3-year average (see graph below).

If you want to see more detail on how this looked and the contributing reasons, check out the VCYP survey waves info: gov.uk/government/pub….

The drop in the number leaving the care system for whatever reason has also contributed to an increase in the average duration of care – but this has just accelerated a trend which was already in train.

Children are staying in care for longer and often leaving care later – increasingly ‘ageing out’ as a care leaver at age 18.

In 2015, 23% of those who left the care system during the year did so at age 18.

In 2021, that figure was 39%.

Lots of things contribute to this, including a push for 18 to be the ‘leaving care’ age rather than 16 or 17 as in years gone by and the introduction of Staying Put/Close which incentivises this, for example.

However, obviously a large part of this is due to the higher proportion of older children entering/in care recently.

The proportion of those starting to be looked after aged 16-17 used to be the smallest category in early 2010s, but it’s now consistently the second largest.

Lots of complex reasons for this, including erosion of early family help and wider public services (see this from @cjrwebb and co: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…), UASC, contextual safeguarding factors and risks outside of the home (e.g. criminal exploitation) - too much for here/now.

Last year I compared the very different age profile between London and the North East:

https://twitter.com/samtrner/status/1337033880575029249

.

This translates strongly to the leaving care picture too.

In 2021, 51% of those ceasing to be looked after in London were aged 18, but only 21% for the North East.

The age profile impact can also be seen in how fewer children are starting in foster placements (down to 63% in 2021 from 71% in 2018).

…e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

However, this is also a story about the continued growth in the use of unregulated semi-independent placements.

In 2021, 10% of those entering care went into semi-independent living and 5% into a regulated children’s home.

In just 2018, these were both at 5%.

Don't be fooled by those who continue to say children are typically being offered a gradual and supported ‘stepping stone’ to independence (whatever that means) through the use of semi-independent and independent settings.

During the pandemic, unregulated semi-independent settings continued to be used as a catch-all for too many young people due to the lack of capacity where it’s needed most and poor commissioning practices which prevent them accessing the place to live that’s right for them.

Current proposals to introduce national standards *do not* solve this and only further formalise this pernicious idea of ‘transition’ and ‘support’ for those aged 16/17.

It makes me absolutely furious and I urge you to sign the #KeepCaringTo18 petition: secure.togethertrust.org.uk/uk-government-…

Re: care leavers, something which caught my eye was the sustained increase (during the pandemic year) of care leavers in touch with their local authority. That seems quite impressive?

(Although still far too low for 17 year olds:

https://mobile.twitter.com/coyl2022/status/1461295806670069768

.)

Think/hope it is a testament to the fab work many LA leaving care teams have been doing to reach out – including to those who may not have previously wanted or required ongoing support (something we @Become1992 pushed for in the DfE’s Covid-19 guidance).

Other good news in the continued growth in use of Stating Put, although it’s still stubbornly low. The pandemic likely had impacts here in maintaining SP arrangements for longer than originally planned, but this was again something we were proud to secure in the revised guidance.

Finally, would continue to draw attention to proportion of care leavers aged 19-21 who are formerly UASC - around a quarter!

https://twitter.com/samtrner/status/1337033892897972224

Really important consideration for any discussion re: future 'outcome' measurements and experiences of support and wider services.

There's a million other things to explore and pull out here but I'll kick off with those for now as I need to do other things.

Would recommend avoiding the EES dashboard and head straight to the good stuff here: …e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

As ever, a warning that threads like this do oversimplify very complex patterns and don't capture all of the nuance, especially in local/regional patterns.

They also mask the individual lives/experiences which sit behind. Read this and then go listen to those who have lived it.