This is like trying to guess the shape of an iceberg when you can only see what's above the surface.

Where are the November case data? We know that by December there had been a superspreader event at the seafood market and cases numbered in the hundreds.…
How is it possible that basic contact tracing wasn't done?

China showed us again and again throughout the pandemic how fast and effectively they could contact trace the h*ll out of any new Covid-19 case. Most recently locking down an entire Disneyland.
The @WHO spokesperson even said the errors in the China-WHO joint report on #OriginOfCovid were not important because “the current first known patient is most probably not the first case.”…
Another member of the China-WHO team even said the Covid-19 infections could go as far back as September 2019.…
If we search the news for the earliest covid-19 case, it might be a Brit from November 2019 who was told by his doctor in Wuhan that he had the novel coronavirus.…

Or a 55-year-old man who fell ill on 17 Nov 2019.…
Also, it continues to disturb me that prominent scientists & research journals @Cell @ScienceMagazine are amplifying figures for which data is inaccessible and not verifiable, provided by scientists in China who may not be free to speak on #OriginOfCovid
At bare minimum, the figure captions in @Cell and @ScienceMagazine should clearly state that the data is not accessible, was provided by Chinese scientists on the China-WHO joint study, and that the figure was reverse engineered using Adobe Illustrator pathfinder.
@CELL @ScienceMagazine Materials & Methods:

We used Adobe Illustrator pathfinder to reverse engineer a highly pixelated figure made by Chinese scientists for which data is completely inaccessible.
@CELL @ScienceMagazine People, we know the timeline that has been presented to us is totally 100% wrong.

They said the 1st doctor to sound the alarm encountered the first covid patient on 27 Dec 2019.

But that same day, the Wuhan authorities already had the genome sequence of the virus.
No need to take my word for it. Eddie Holmes also had seen evidence that the Chinese gov had the SARS2 genome sequence on 27 Dec 2019, and this was relayed in Jeremy Farrar's book:
According to the @washingtonpost on 23 Dec 2019 wildlife markets were ordered to shut down.

So the question is when exactly did the Chinese authorities first hear about a cluster of cases at a live animal market in Wuhan?…
@washingtonpost "A clampdown on Enshi's wildlife trade at wet markets began on Dec. 23, 2019, according to state media, eight days before China publicly acknowledged the new virus... It could have been preventive, as rumors emerged of market vendors falling mysteriously ill in Wuhan."
I know some scientists are super thirsty but we have to stop drinking this wildlife trade Kool-Aid.

Easy steps
1. Does data exist? Has it been collected?
2. Can you access and share the data?
3. Who is the source of the data? Are there competing interests?
This is so basic. For scientists. For journalists. For anyone who has critical thinking skills.
Anyone who can do basic math knows there's no way Covid cases were only recognized after 27 Dec 2019, if nearby markets were ordered to shut down on 23 Dec and the authorities already had the virus genome on 27 Dec.

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More from @Ayjchan

18 Nov
To the folks saying (or hoping) “don’t worry, I’m sure labs around the world are conducting research more safely now.”

Where is the evidence of this happening? How do we know that people approving and conducting risky experiments have turned over a new leaf?
See this letter to Congress by dozens of US scientific orgs:

“We urge you to reject attempts to impose restrictions on federally funded research or the operations of federal science agencies based on premature conclusions about how the pandemic emerged.”…
There’s no new moratorium, no new framework, no new review process for risky pathogen research.
Read 8 tweets
17 Nov
The most important questions (and books) tend to offend a large section of society.

Did Covid-19 come from a lab? #OriginOfCovid

I never imagined I would one day co-write a book that would upset and threaten so many scientists and science journalists.
We @mattwridley would not be surprised if this book makes us unwelcome in some countries.

Our book lays bare the type of pathogen research that was ongoing prior to the pandemic, the frequency and risks of lab leaks, and a case for both natural and lab #OriginOfCovid scenarios.
Rescuing the lab origin hypothesis from being condemned by experts as a conspiracy theory demanded the ingenuity and determination of numerous scientists, journalists and sleuths whose stories are described in our book.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
Easy steps for scientists to take before amplifying something they heard from another scientist:

1. Is there data to support this claim?

2. Is the data accessible and verifiable?

3. Who provided the data? Are there competing interests?
If the answer to (1) is no, i.e., there is no data to support this claim, then...

Do not amplify or even try to massage the statement, no matter who said it.
If the answer to (2) is no, i.e., the data cannot be accessed or verified, then...

Do not re-package/beautify the findings or figures made from non-accessible data.

Do not persuade people to believe in the integrity of data they can't access.
Read 5 tweets
17 Nov
I’d actually like to know what the result would be if scientists were anonymously surveyed about their opinion of how Covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan.
We know from a June 2021 poll that most Americans, democrat or republican, believe SARS-CoV-2 came from a lab. An even greater portion of Americans want the #OriginOfCovid to be investigated.

This issue is a surprising unifier.…
My prediction is that those who claim that a natural #OriginOfCovid is almost certain might find themselves in a very tiny minority, even among scientists.
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
On changing my name.

I’m proud of the work I’ve done on #OriginOfCovid someone had to do it

I’ve been warned by friends & family that I’ve ended my career or can’t travel safely under my real name any more.

I’m just going to put it out here that I don’t have a plan for myself.
I know this really fascinates journalists. And it’s going to be a main feature of profiles about me regardless of how much I ask journalists to just report about #OriginOfCovid instead of my personal story.
I wish more scientists could ask whether this pandemic began because of research activities, without fearing for their careers and whether they could ever go home and see their families.
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
People are asking what is going on with the #PangolinPapers

tldr multiple groups of scientists published non-reproducible papers on a pangolin virus that caused a media frenzy over pangolins as an intermediate host of SARS2 in 2020.

Instead of retracting the papers...
... the journals gave each team of scientists a year or more to gather data that actually supported their findings, which were meanwhile cited and incorporated across hundreds of studies.

The resulting massive corrections reveal at best highly negligent scientific conduct.
If authors are not penalized for this type of behavior, does it mean that our top journals are now permitting scientists to submit papers with whatever results they like, and only if they get called out by other scientists, then they are given a year to gather actual data?
Read 8 tweets

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