This holiday my inventory levels now appear to be:
The quantity of inventory I have arriving after the holidays (or arriving too late to sell) is:
I think a lot of inventorybois went into this holiday expecting inventory to be short but the opposite is happening:
- because of supply chain news stories purchases that would’ve happened in November and December were pulled into September and October
…
- November sales have been slower than normal
- ecom thought they had the market to themselves like they did In 2020 but retail has gone hard on inventory and compensating for last years lost sales
- pallet shortages imply big inventory holdings
- inventory prices (particularly because of containers) have risen a lot faster than wages and this is starting to show in the data
- unlike in the 1970s there are pressure valves to wage increases that didn’t exist (outsourcing globally and automation)
So while I believe we’re still in an inflationary cycle at least until the fed raises rates, we could see a pretty nasty drop in prices for us inventorybois particularly after Christmas. Very tough environment. Let’s see the results of those two polls!!
/end
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What’s America’s fascination with tying everything to employment?
1. “People should have healthcare and retirement money” => becomes a payroll tax half paid by employers.
2. Lose your job, lose your health insurance.
1/2
3. People should all have enough money to live => minimum wage
4. People should be vaccinated => force employers to pay fines if they’re not.
In every case, there was no reason to involve an employer. Government could legislate and enforce directly. Instead they burden…
2/3
businesses in the US.
Why is that a problem? It is because it is complicated administratively, increases the cost of employment (vs other countries), and creates second order effects like employees can’t quit because they lose all benefits.
This “cope” coming to an American media purveyor near you!
“Yes, they may no covid, much less crime, better infrastructure, a healthier economy, less unrest, a stronger military, live longer, free healthcare, essentially free education…
Lot of people misunderstanding this tweet. What I am trying to say:
China is getting better (either closing the gap or exceeding) than the USA in a growing list of important factors (healthcare, gov't competence, education, crime, etc.) that corporate US media will abandon
1/2
the "Made in China? LOL" (the same as "Made in Japan? LOL" from decades ago) viewpoint and transition to one where instead of belittling the country for being backward we will say "well they might be better than us but we have freedom!"
Before Amazon aggregators, the typical buyer of Amazon businesses were corporate executives who wanted to try their hand at entrepreneurship. I have some buddies who sold to them. I’d estimate that 90%+ of those loans went bad. One story that sticks out…
One guy spent like $5 million on a business. The former owner told him “hey you need to order stock for prime day. You have a lightning deal.” He did too late so he flew an entire container to Amazon $180k vs $5k. It arrived after prime day. Stuff like that.
2/n
I can’t speak for all of SmB but I can tell you why these execs usually failed.
1) the sellers were doing blackhat tactics to maintain sales rank 2) thé buyers weren’t 3) buyers saw the Chinese competition coming in and eating margins 4) execs have big egos but running a smb