Christopher Miller Profile picture
Nov 21, 2021 23 tweets 8 min read Read on X
There’s rightly been a lot of concern about and attention paid to the Russian military build-up around Ukraine, and a lot of takes — some good, some not so good, some provocative — including ~that~ Politico op-ed that says the US should shove Minsk down Kyiv’s throat...
I don’t like that for many reasons, not least b/c it denies Ukraine agency over its future, reinforces Russia’s false theory that US controls Kyiv, and, well, just wouldn’t be accepted by Ukrainians. It’s unrealistic. But the piece (politico.com/news/magazine/…) did something good…
It triggered an important discussion about the controversial Minsk accords and the ~8-year war in Ukraine more broadly. Today I’ve been catching up on some excellent and thought provoking threads by very smart people on this matter. What follows is sort of a thread of threads.
It’s always a good idea to read @APHClarkson on Ukraine. He understands the Ukrainian perspective well but I think he makes some solid points here on Putin’s calculus, too.
Then there’s @DrRadchenko, who’s got a sharp Russia-focused eye and encyclopedic Cold War knowledge. Here he considers a couple of Putin’s options and is skeptical of a fresh invasion.
You must always read analysis by @OlyaOliker. She’s got a knack for parsing the intricacies of East-West relations. Tl;dr she recommends to West, ‘stock-taking and some decisions about who’s willing to do what under various circumstances…then communicating results to Moscow.’
.@scrawnya also raises good points about how the West views Russia and vice versa, and how the former’s tired approach to Russian cyclical troop build-ups is “triggering” and has actually fueled Moscow’s actions. Time for something new.
She also points out how forcing Minsk down Ukraine’s throat will just not work. It was and remains a bad deal; it only works if Russia takes the first major steps.
In fact, everyone at least seems to agree Minsk accords are a bad deal and were signed by Ukraine with a gun to its head. I’d argue they at least worked in the short term in that they stopped serious bloodshed and more or less froze the contact line, turning the war static.
The problem of course has been that all sides have different takes on the steps in which Minsk should be implemented, so no progress. Without Russia going first in withdrawing troops, returning control of the Ukrainian border to Kyiv, or at least int’l peacekeepers, Minsk fails.
Now I’m getting into some of my own takes. Could Ukraine do some of the political provisions of Minsk as @scharap suggests in Politico? In theory, sure. In reality, not without serious internal backlash, not before the aforementioned Minsk steps by Russia. Otherwise non-starter.
I don’t know what the solution is. I think Putin will do what Putin wants to do — and I realize that’s a bit lame in terms of analysis but it’s true. This war could end if he decides it will end. Can anyone nudge him in that direction? …
Well, there are much harsher sanctions that could be applied by the West, moves against oligarchs, Russian govt, banking system… There are other things in the West’s and NATO’s tool chests that could but tried re: integration, membership. But West is apprehensive about all that.
As @andrewsweiss and @eugene_rumer wrote in this must-read piece, Ukraine is Putin’s unfinished business. There might be nothing that completely deters him there. carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukr…
And yet, I’m not certain Putin’s about to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine & that he’s prepared to accept the consequences of doing so — which will include sanctions (even if they aren’t as strong as many would like, they’ll sting some) & massive $ & loss of Russian lives.
Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov painted a grim picture of what a large-scale Russian attack could look like in this interview. (Small scoop inside too: He tells @haltman Ukraine has used US Javelins in combat. We haven’t seen footage, tho.) militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…
The map included in @MilitaryTimes piece shows what Ukraine’s preparing for should Russia invade by land, sea, air. Other scenarios exist outside this worst-case one. In any case destruction, loss of life would be huge. Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, & Odesa cities have millions of ppl. Image
Here, @RALee85 gives some detail on the Russian units that'd be involved:
Budanov said if a Russian assault coming it’s likely to be in Jan/Feb after months of laying groundwork. Winter war for UA/RU isn’t an issue; recall Debaltseve battle in Jan/Feb ‘15.
Ukraine’s military is much bigger and stronger than it was in 2014. And the Ukrainian population broadly is ready to resist in whatever ways they can. The country has lived prepared for war for the last 7.5 years, after all. This would be an incredibly bloody and deadly fight.
So where to end this thread? Here I guess, without an immediate solution. Sorry. But it’s great there’s a dialogue happening and potentially new ideas to consider.
One last note for the folks who always love to bring up the ‘If Ukraine had kept its nukes…’ argument. @steven_pifer is right:
Almost forgot one for the ‘But the Budapest memo said US & UK have to defend Ukraine’ crowd: the memo itself never provided security guarantees or obligations to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It vowed to seek immediate UN Security Council action pircenter.org/media/content/…
Add this piece to the reading list.

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More from @ChristopherJM

Jul 15
Ukraine today: A fresh poll shows Ukrainians’ interest in negotiations; and Zelensky tells Ukrainian reporters he’s “not afraid” of Trump 2.0, and signals more govt shakeups likely ahead. (Rumors of PM Shmyhal’s departure, etc. have swirled for months.) 🧵
A new poll by @RazumkovC for @zn_ua found that 44% of Ukrainians believe it’s time for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia (35% say not yet; 21% undecided). That's a big shift compared to last year, when 64% of Ukrainians opposed talks with Moscow.
zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/44…
@RazumkovC @zn_ua But vast majority of Ukrainians – 83% – disagree with Putin's conditions, which would include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from beyond the administrative borders of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions just to start talks. zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/44…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 12
NEW: Our @FT team identified and located four Ukrainian children who were abducted and taken to Russia and are now advertised as up for adoption on a Russian government-linked adoption website, including one child under a false Russian identity. on.ft.com/3KLKm85
.@FT confirmed the children’s IDs with help of Ukrainian Child Rights Protection Centre. We are awaiting further confirmation on two more children located by the FT who we strongly believe are Ukrainian. The children’s guardians and Ukraine’s authorities had previously been unaware of their whereabouts.
The four Ukrainian children were abducted from state care homes and separated from their guardians and relatives in towns across the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine that fell under the control of Russia’s invading army in 2022. on.ft.com/3KLKm85
Read 6 tweets
May 30
NEW: US is close to signing new security pact with Ukraine in signal of support to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Story w/ @JamesPoliti @HenryJFoy. More in 🧵below.
ft.com/content/966970…
Zelensky’s frustration with Biden was laid bare when the Ukrainian prez rebuked his US counterpart in blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”. ft.com/content/966970…
One Zelensky-appointed senior government official who spoke to the @FT about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.” ft.com/content/966970…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16
Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them below beside my own photos from when I lived in Bakhmut in 2010-2012, when it was a vibrant, peaceful city that 80,000 called home.

These images show the central square fountain and city hall — or where city hall stood before it was blown up. The first two were taken under Russian occupation. The other two are mine from 14 years ago.Image
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This was the Bakhmut Ferris wheel in the city’s upper central park. It usually operated on holidays and was a meeting place for families. Left: under Russian occupation this month. Right: my photo from 2011.
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This is one of the locally famous historic central Bakhmut buildings. My second apartment in the city was in the adjacent building on the left and just out of view. Catty corner was the city hall building and across the road was the central park and fountain from the first tweet above.
Left: today under Russian occupation. Other three photos are mine: from December 2022; summer 2010; and winter 2011.Image
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Read 7 tweets
Apr 7
The Russian air force is stepping up its use of Soviet-era weapons that have been retrofitted for 21st-century warfare and are pounding Ukrainian forces, pulverising towns and giving Moscow an advantage on the battlefield.

My piece for @FT on the Russian "glide bombs" targeting Ukrainian towns and troops positions on the frontline: ft.com/content/0d6612…
Russian glide bombs are wreaking havoc on Ukrainian positions.

“For [Russia], it is much cheaper than using hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, when one of these bombs will demolish several buildings,” said Vlad, a 27-year-old soldier serving in the eastern Donetsk region.

“They are very scary, very lethal,” said Bohdan, another soldier in Donetsk region. “Even a kilometre away, the blast rips the doors of buildings off their hinges.”

ft.com/content/0d6612…
Ukrainian foreign minister @DmytroKuleba told @FT that his country’s soldiers “are being massively and I would say even routinely attacked by guided aerial bombs that wipe out our positions”.
ft.com/content/0d6612…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 16
Hidden cameras in hotel rooms. Months-long surveillance. Leaked footage on a murky black PR website. Highly disturbing incidents targeting Ukraine’s top investigative journalists in recent days has many in Kyiv concerned about a re-emergence of bad-old-days-type antics.
Unsurprisingly, supposed chief editor of "Narodna Pravda," bogus black PR website that has gone after Ukraine's top investigative journalists who've been critical of govt, has no publicly available social accounts and her image appears to be AI-generated.
This situation stinks of Yanukovych-era attacks on journalists in Ukraine. And "Narodna Pravda" looks like merely the latest version of "Ukrainska Kryvda" back in 2013. Here's my report from back then. Lots of similarities. theworld.org/dispatch/news/…
Read 7 tweets

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