ODB Profile picture
23 Nov, 22 tweets, 6 min read
I have some time to burn waiting on someone to respond to something. LET'S TALK ABOUT BOWL POSSIBILITIES! (1/x).
There is a possibility that Baylor can make the @CFBPlayoff if it beats Tech, makes and wins CCG, and wins Big 12. However, in light of the fact that this possibility is EXTREMELY SMALL and relies on several other improbable things happening, I'm not going to address it. (2/x).
Besides, we'd probably get Georgia as the #4 (at absolute best), and I don't need that pain in my life. (3/x).
If Baylor makes and wins the @Big12Conference Champion Game (i.e., wins the Big 12), it will almost certainly go to the @SugarBowlNola. If two SEC schools make the Playoff, we get #3, which is probably Ole Miss. If one makes it, we get #2, probably Alabama. (4/x).
Related: if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, get ready for 2 SEC teams to make it OR for UGA to get an at-large bid. I don't see much possibility we could play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl (again, meaning this year, thankfully). Hello, Ole Miss (probably). (5/x).
Related related: it is possible that Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State, Kentucky beats Louisville, and Texas A&M beats LSU. All would be 9-3 overall, 5-3 in-conference. Ole Miss > A&M, but neither has played Kentucky. A&M probably ranks highest, so A&M SEC #3? No idea. (6/x).
If Baylor makes but loses the @Big12Conference Championship, the Sugar Bowl is still possible if OSU makes the @CFBPlayoff. Also possible (but unlikely with 3 losses) is an at-large NY6 game (Cotton, Peach, or Fiesta). Sorry, Fiesta-lovers. (7/x).
If Baylor does not make the @Big12Conference Championship but still beats Tech, that means OSU lost to OU. Then OU possibly makes the @CFBPlayoff, OSU to the Sugar Bowl, Baylor to the @valeroalamobowl. Or OU to Sugar Bowl, OSU possibly to at-large NY6, Baylor to Alamo. (8/x).
OR OU to Sugar, Baylor to at-large bid (but we would have to get over having the same number of losses and losing the H2H to OSU), which could mean Fiesta (maybe against Oregon?) Helpful that we are right behind OSU right now, but this seems unlikely. (9/x).
In any event Alamo Bowl is versus a Pac 12 team decided ... somehow. Most common Alamo opponents are Oregon, Arizona State, or UCLA in projections. Possibly Utah. (10/x).
Worst-case scenario (other than losing to Tech) is OU beats OSU, doesn't make Playoff, then OU to Sugar, OSU to Alamo, and Baylor to @CheezItBowl in Orlando vs. ACC (who decides similarly to Pac 12 ... somehow). No disrespect to Cheez-Its. (11/x).
Related: the Pac 12 and ACC decide their non-Playoff, non-@rosebowlgame (for Pac 12) spots the same way, through a tier system that takes into account location and opponent. Anybody that says definitively what happens to either conference's non-Playoff teams is lying. (12/x).
Worst worst-case scenario (losing to Tech) may still be the Cheez-It Bowl, since Baylor would is locked into third at worst in the Conference. In worst worst-case, winner of OSU-OU does not make Playoff, goes to Sugar, loser goes to Alamo, Baylor goes to Cheez-It. (13/x).
HOWEVER, it is possible that Baylor loses to Tech, OSU beats OU anyway and makes Playoff, OU to Sugar, Baylor to Alamo. (14/x).
So all that being said, you're probably looking at Sugar vs. Ole Miss (NOLA), Alamo vs. Pac 12 (??, maybe Oregon or Utah?) (San Antonio), or Cheez-It vs. ACC (??, maybe Wake Forest, Pitt, or Clemson?) (Orlando). Tell me where I'm wrong. (15/15).
Dang it, I meant their non-playoff, non-champions.
Like an idiot, I didn’t really consider that OU could beat OSU this week and then lose to them next week. Probably doesn’t change much for us that there would be a rematch UNLESS @cgrahamophone is right, they split, and we all end up with 2 losses and in Playoff, Sugar, NY6.
I have been corrected that if Mississippi State beats Ole Miss, they are 8-4, 5-3 in the SEC, and have tiebreakers over all three other 5-3 teams. So Mississippi State to the Sugar Bowl? I have a new favorite outcome.
I also discounted the possibility/likelihood that Alabama loses to UGA and gets a NY6 bowl anyway, meaning SEC #3 goes to the Sugar Bowl, regardless. Essentially, it may be unlikely you get UGA OR Bama in the Sugar.
I have been corrected AGAIN that it IS based on Playoff rankings, meaning probably A&M unless the Committee jumps Mississippi State over them for: 1) beating them, and 2) beating Ole Miss. But that’s a big jump. So probably A&M if Ole Miss loses/A&M wins.
Would is? Great job. I’m going to take the corrections I get, put this together competently (or as well as I can), and do a post tomorrow.
BTW, if it’s A&M

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