Five things we know about vaccine passports:
1. They impose huge costs including:
• Government set up, monitoring & implementation
• Business implementation
• Lower business trade
• Welfare loss for those excluded
• Societal loss from “papers please” culture
1. They impose huge costs including:
• Government set up, monitoring & implementation
• Business implementation
• Lower business trade
• Welfare loss for those excluded
• Societal loss from “papers please” culture
2. They don't prevent big surges in infections.
Nearly every country with passports/Covid certification has seen huge rises in infection rates within a few months. Stark recent examples include Ireland, Netherlands, Austria & Germany.
Nearly every country with passports/Covid certification has seen huge rises in infection rates within a few months. Stark recent examples include Ireland, Netherlands, Austria & Germany.
3. Strong evidence they don’t lead to large, observable impacts, certainly not big enough to be seen in infection trends.
For example, compare Scotland, Wales (passports since Oct), NI (just introduced) & England (none).
Without the labels, could you pick out which is which?
For example, compare Scotland, Wales (passports since Oct), NI (just introduced) & England (none).
Without the labels, could you pick out which is which?
4. There is not even any good evidence for there being small, marginal benefits as admitted recently by the Welsh CMO and Scottish Deputy First Minister. See this overview here:
spectator.co.uk/article/sturge…
spectator.co.uk/article/sturge…
5. It is plausible they actually make things worse due to:
• Waning vaccine effectiveness
• Potentially smaller % of previously infected people (with significantly higher immunity) amongst vaccinated.
• Behavioural effects (e.g. vaccinated being less aware of symptoms)
...
• Waning vaccine effectiveness
• Potentially smaller % of previously infected people (with significantly higher immunity) amongst vaccinated.
• Behavioural effects (e.g. vaccinated being less aware of symptoms)
...
...
Yet, the more data we get on how useless vaccine passports are, the more governments look to expand them.
Latest example seems likely to be @NicolaSturgeon today in Scotland.
…
Yet, the more data we get on how useless vaccine passports are, the more governments look to expand them.
Latest example seems likely to be @NicolaSturgeon today in Scotland.
…
...
Those still promoting vaccine passports are indulging in unscientific wishful thinking, no better than superstition.
We need to stop treating vax passports as a mainstream, reasonable policy but rather for what it is: a fringe, extremist view with zero credibility.
Those still promoting vaccine passports are indulging in unscientific wishful thinking, no better than superstition.
We need to stop treating vax passports as a mainstream, reasonable policy but rather for what it is: a fringe, extremist view with zero credibility.
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