Thread on BMC Elections

Currently BJP has an ambitious aim of defeating Shiv Sena in Mumbai.

If BJP wants to achieve this Herculean task it will have to implement a mix of its strategy in GHMC & Bodoland Territorial Council elections.
➡️ Like GHMC BJP will have to field all its top line leaders in Mumbai & if possible even PM @narendramodi.

➡️First of all it will increase pressure on opposition cadres. Moreover it will ensure good turnout in BJP bastions of Charkop, Borivali, Mulund, Kandivali and Colaba.
➡️ Personally speaking I don’t like usage of top brass for local elections but when I check turnout for 2019 Lok Sabha & 2019 Assembly I realise that NaMo is very much necessary to bring out lazy BJP voters across India.
➡️ Like BTC it will have to fund MNS. Trust me MNS can defeat Sena on number of seats across Mumbai. They got good voting % on seats even in 2019 Assembly election like Magathane, Bhandup, Shivadi.

➡️When MNS was funded by INC in 2009 it defeated Shiv Sena in its bastions.
➡️But there should be no formal alliance or else Marathis will unite against BJP.

➡️BJP can use the strategy it used in 2018 Karnataka Election to defeat Siddharamaiah on Chamundeshwari seat. BJP can field little known candidates & if they hardly campaign MNS will benefit.
➡️If Raj Thackeray’s MNS fights on 50 seats effectively he can win 15-20 seats easily. Please note he won 28 in 2012 elections so my numbers are not non achievable.

➡️If BJP wins 100 seats than it can get its Mayor. For BJP 60 seats are confirmed in BMC even on its worst day.
➡️The core voters of Gujaratis & North Indians are concentrated and they will vote for BJP only.

➡️ Currently Ranes are working hard on ground & even tickets have been distributed informally. I can confirm same as 2 person I know are contesting on BJP ticket.
➡️Ever since Hindutva adoption of MNS even North Indians are slowly accepting Raj Thackeray despite his past with North Indians.

➡️ They won’t mind BJP’s indirect alliance with MNS as they have faith in PM Modi.
➡️But BJP won’t enter in formal alliance and might even criticise MNS during elections since they don’t want MNS to be named as BJP’s B Team.

➡️Moreover with UP Assembly Elections will be around the corner so BJP won’t risk such a big state for a city.
➡️Like GHMC BJP has strong leaders like @BhatkhalkarA and @manoj_kotak who will be leading campaign.

➡️ Devendra Fadnavis will be campaigning across state as elections will be there for 10 Municipalities.

➡️BJP needs to replace State Chief if it wants to go in the battle fully

➡️ Now lets come to demographics part which is important as others. 👇🏻👇🏻

(Data is calculated from Census report & approximation of 10 years)

Maharashtrians : 34%
Muslims : 22%
Christians (3%) Sikhs & Parsis: 5%
North Indians : 22%
Gujaratis : 12%
South Indians :5%
➡️ BJP’s vote share won’t be less than 33% in worst case scenario.

Likely voters of BJP👇🏻

Marathis : 20% of 34% - 6.8%
Muslims 5% of 22% - 1%
(Yes Muslims will vote due to @iGopalShetty @ShelarAshish)
85% of Gujjus - 10.2%
70% of North Indians - 15.40%
Half South Indians- 2.5%
Out of Christians Sikhs & Parsis : 1%

➡️So Likely vote share of BJP will be around 36.9%.

Note 1: In all my analysis I’m always conservative for BJP so eventually it might increase. In Bihar same thing happened.
Note 2 : Marathi support has increased for BJP as per my own friends & relatives from Mumbai but I will confirm same after December.

Amongst North Indians I would like to see if anyone supports Congress anymore. High chances that BJP can get 80% of their votes too.
Shiv Sena’s expected Vote Share (Best Case)

65% of Maharashtrians - 22.4%
45% of Muslims - 9.9%
North Indians - 3.3%
Other Minorities - 2.5%
Gujaratis - 1.2%
South Indians - 1%

Total Vote Share - 40%
➡️You will think it will decimate BJP with this vote share. You are wrong. There will be rebels on more than 40 seats in MVA assuming they fight alone and they will eat each other’s vote share.

Plus BJP’s worst case scenario is near to Sena’s best case scenario in Mumbai.

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More from @NewsArenaIndia

23 Nov
➡️You will think it will decimate BJP with this vote share. You are wrong. There will be rebels on more than 40 seats in MVA assuming they fight alone and they will eat each other’s vote share.

Plus BJP’s worst case scenario is near to Sena’s best case scenario in Mumbai.
➡️As Election progresses BJP will only move ahead.

➡️Devendra Fadnavis must be relieved of his responsibilities as Goa Election incharge as he is needed in Maharashtra as Chandrakant Patil is not that useful. If needed Vinod Tawde should be deputed to Goa.
➡️ Nitesh Rane’s Marathi Katta is receiving good response so far.

➡️ Most of you won’t agree but Narendra Modi is needed to bring out BJP’s middle class voters to polling station. Sena’s voters come mainly from slum areas & they will go to vote with enthusiasm.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
Mid Term Opinion Poll for 10 Lok Sabha seats of Haryana

BJP+ : 7-9
INC : 1-3

Factors in favour of BJP in Haryana -

1. PM Narendra Modi is tallest leader for Haryanvis & they support BJP primarily due to him.

2. State Govt ended Parchi system (corruption) in Govt jobs.
3. 75% of reservation for locals in jobs will do wonders.

4. ML Khattar is tallest non-Jat leader in 55 years history of Haryana.

5. Jats V/S Non-Jats consolidation is at peak in Haryana & it will give rich political dividends to BJP
Factors Against BJP :

1. On couple of seats Jats are more than 35% which will cause big trouble for BJP.

2. Unemployment as per GoI figures is another big trouble but with Khattar’s efforts it is being dealt with.
Read 25 tweets

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