[1]
@MichaelWorobey,
I'll start my analysis of your pending Science art. w/the same advice I gave to the joint WHO/🇨🇳inv:
Always count the dots on the map BEFORE drawing your conclusions
@R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan [2] I didn't realize the WHO report was relevant.
My argument has not rested since the point below; in fact, I've read these ~70 epidemiological studies, among others
@eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 [3] I'll start with a question.
Why does my concatenated chart below look odd? It contains all case & death daily totals in Wuhan, and all Health Care Worker cases [HCW]
?
@RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson [4]
FYI, this data is from a Chinese study, as is most of the epidemiological research listed above. Some articles don't even pop up in English-lang. searches.
Thus, peer-reviewed/censor-✅

As for the question I posed in [3],
it's clear the WHO team didn't read it either
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson [5] My 1st concern with your conclusions, @MichaelWorobey, stem from math, not from your rejection of the 4th PLA seq
Your [i.e. the WHO] map leads to a ~85%-15% East/West distribution of cases along either side of the Yangtze River [1 mile-wide, btw]
@zerohedge @pathogenetics
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics [6]
However, that still leaves 25-40 [dep. on the map used] missing? I find your depth of faith in China's lies disturbing.
Even worse, the extant data would indicate that HALF of Wuhan's infected residents on 1/20 were HCW's.
I bet HCW inf. were tracked closer than the public's
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics [7]
Which isn't surprising, since the average time for a patient to get results on a PCR was ~23 days in Jan/Feb.
But I digress
Why does 85:15 not make sense? Let's do a deep-dive into the data [I literally transcribed the picture into a usable form, as 🇨🇳 did well in scrambling]
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic [9]
I was surprised to discover that the district proportions through 3/8 actually favor the top-end of the scales for the 4 most important districts for our purposes [Jianghan/Jiang'an/Wuchang/Hongshan]
-That would make the 1/9/20 E:W dist. ~65:35 -
a lot like I said in June
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [13] To recap thus far:
α) No acctg for ~25% missing dots
β) No acctg for dozens of 🇨🇳epid. studies [pic⬇️]
γ) the WHO rpt #'s are an outlier to most evid.
δ) PLA & Bloom seq's disregarded
ε) extant lack of seroconv/animal inf data
φ) Why the disturbing HCW discrep. w/low cases?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [14] Why does the Weibo emergency call data correlate so strongly with confirmed/reported data, but the outlier of early seq's bunched in Jianghan transcend that?
Pic3 shows Cx/Dx prop. [by district] over time, from 1/9-8/6.
Where did Wuchang's cases come from?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [15] The timeline shows a Huanan💥& a similar💥in the 3-7 days after the 40k meal at the Baibuting comm. in Jiang'an on 1/18.

**How did the WIV side of the river close an ~85:15 gap to ~65:35 in 8 days, while all cases grew exponentially? While defying Weibo location data?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [16]
I could go on, but I'll tidy up.
Using the WHO rpt as a basis for any geo-spatial distribution w/in Wuhan's outbreak ignores what dozens of epid. surveys conclude.
Other anomalies:
Wuchang's CFR & severity profiles >Jianghan, despite⬇️pop density & younger residents.
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [17]
Many anomalies have straightforward conclusions;
for example, CFR's that skew higher than expected in early 2020 almost universally indicate a particular area that the SARS-CoV-2 virus 1st exploded w/in that region.

It's improbable that Wuchang was an outlier at D+0
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [18]
*especially as age has been the most consistent predictor of mortality [+comorbidities.
The impact of public trans.? Pic3 says it all.

Pic4? **That shows that 64 early HCW cases had zero connections to the Huanan Market.
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan No response yet.
Ideally, that would imply pausing your forthcoming article in order to review more data.
If a formal response via letter would be better, I can start looking for co-authors; thankfully, most of the research is already done

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Charles Rixey, MA MBA (c)

Charles Rixey, MA MBA (c) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @CharlesRixey

17 Nov
[1]
@EthicalSkeptic's recent art. that expands upon his hyp. that COVID-19 started in 2018 vice 2019 is well-argued, but as a skeptic myself, I have concerns about his conclusions. Here's a few, for the moment:

@TyCardon @SteveDeaceShow @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @dasher8090
[2] *Note: I plan on writing an article that offers fuller analysis, but I'm very interested in hearing all perspectives.

A) 1) Lack of Genomic Evidence
-Wuhan is still the geospatial source of COVID-19 infections-ALL sequences

@RadCentrism @BillyBostickson @gdemaneuf
[3] The SARS-CoV-2 genome was very stable from December 2019 until Fall 2020; in order for this to fit with E. Skeptics argument, both serial passaging & rapid mutation within a single immuno-compromised ind. are better at explaining certain evo. trends
@Daoyu15 @pathogenetics
Read 14 tweets
8 Nov
[1] Here's a primer on the major publications on each side of the GOF debate.
The first png pic traces the UNC-WIV-EHA-NIH research that could've honed the exact skills to create a virus withSARS-CoV-2's exact features:
@TheSeeker268 @R_H_Ebright @Ayjchan @quay_dr @thackerpd
[2]
*Note: The articles highlighted in Green ⬆️are works that highlight specific activities that could've supported the creation of a chimaera like SARS-CoV-2.

The articles in red⬇️represent work by opponents of GOF
@jjcouey @BretWeinstein @TyCardon @JasonButtrill @ianbirrell
[3] Here's the combined picture; the impact of censorship in early 2020 is once again blatantly obvious to anyone that looks, as Green indicates articles supporting a natural hypothesis - the same color as for those who conducted GOF exp. pre-COVID @chrismartenson @RepGallagher
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov
[1] I've heard from multiple sources
[fed officials, mil/civ drs, troops]
that cardiac/circ./neuro effects are impacting mil. readiness in a "statistically sig" way.
Mandates have collateral impacts
@jjcouey @JesseMatchey @w_mccairn @Doctor_I_am_The @Fynnderella1
[2] I use 'impacts' rather than 'damage' because the military is used to having to weigh the pros/cons of a decision, & fully understands that everything has a cost.
In fact, that's exactly why the mandate is so disingenuous...⬇️
@chrismartenson @BretWeinstein
[3] After all, it was the mil. [DARPA] that rejected EHA's PREEMPT proposal, because the spike+nanop. combo would be unable to create a stable vax-in BATS.⬇️Now, 3 yrs later, there's coercion via exec. order to force our mil. to use an MCM that the Army's own scientists, rejected
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(