I'll start my analysis of your pending Science art. w/the same advice I gave to the joint WHO/🇨🇳inv:
Always count the dots on the map BEFORE drawing your conclusions
@R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan [2] I didn't realize the WHO report was relevant.
My argument has not rested since the point below; in fact, I've read these ~70 epidemiological studies, among others
@eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 [3] I'll start with a question.
Why does my concatenated chart below look odd? It contains all case & death daily totals in Wuhan, and all Health Care Worker cases [HCW]
@RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson [4]
FYI, this data is from a Chinese study, as is most of the epidemiological research listed above. Some articles don't even pop up in English-lang. searches.
Thus, peer-reviewed/censor-✅

As for the question I posed in [3],
it's clear the WHO team didn't read it either
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson [5] My 1st concern with your conclusions, @MichaelWorobey, stem from math, not from your rejection of the 4th PLA seq
Your [i.e. the WHO] map leads to a ~85%-15% East/West distribution of cases along either side of the Yangtze River [1 mile-wide, btw]
@zerohedge @pathogenetics
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics [6]
However, that still leaves 25-40 [dep. on the map used] missing? I find your depth of faith in China's lies disturbing.
Even worse, the extant data would indicate that HALF of Wuhan's infected residents on 1/20 were HCW's.
I bet HCW inf. were tracked closer than the public's
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics [7]
Which isn't surprising, since the average time for a patient to get results on a PCR was ~23 days in Jan/Feb.
But I digress
Why does 85:15 not make sense? Let's do a deep-dive into the data [I literally transcribed the picture into a usable form, as 🇨🇳 did well in scrambling]
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic [9]
I was surprised to discover that the district proportions through 3/8 actually favor the top-end of the scales for the 4 most important districts for our purposes [Jianghan/Jiang'an/Wuchang/Hongshan]
-That would make the 1/9/20 E:W dist. ~65:35 -
a lot like I said in June
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [13] To recap thus far:
α) No acctg for ~25% missing dots
β) No acctg for dozens of 🇨🇳epid. studies [pic⬇️]
γ) the WHO rpt #'s are an outlier to most evid.
δ) PLA & Bloom seq's disregarded
ε) extant lack of seroconv/animal inf data
φ) Why the disturbing HCW discrep. w/low cases?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [14] Why does the Weibo emergency call data correlate so strongly with confirmed/reported data, but the outlier of early seq's bunched in Jianghan transcend that?
Pic3 shows Cx/Dx prop. [by district] over time, from 1/9-8/6.
Where did Wuchang's cases come from?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [15] The timeline shows a Huanan💥& a similar💥in the 3-7 days after the 40k meal at the Baibuting comm. in Jiang'an on 1/18.

**How did the WIV side of the river close an ~85:15 gap to ~65:35 in 8 days, while all cases grew exponentially? While defying Weibo location data?
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [16]
I could go on, but I'll tidy up.
Using the WHO rpt as a basis for any geo-spatial distribution w/in Wuhan's outbreak ignores what dozens of epid. surveys conclude.
Other anomalies:
Wuchang's CFR & severity profiles >Jianghan, despite⬇️pop density & younger residents.
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [17]
Many anomalies have straightforward conclusions;
for example, CFR's that skew higher than expected in early 2020 almost universally indicate a particular area that the SARS-CoV-2 virus 1st exploded w/in that region.

It's improbable that Wuchang was an outlier at D+0
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan @eugyppius1 @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @ico_dna @aemangus91 @dasher8090 @RandPaul @RepGallagher @glennbeck @JasonButtrill @SteveDeaceShow @MonaRahalkar @SharriMarkson @zerohedge @pathogenetics @janieyaya @humblesci @w_mccairn @EthicalSkeptic @jenniferatntd @DavidRelman @jbloom_lab [18]
*especially as age has been the most consistent predictor of mortality [+comorbidities.
The impact of public trans.? Pic3 says it all.

Pic4? **That shows that 64 early HCW cases had zero connections to the Huanan Market.
@MichaelWorobey @R_H_Ebright @quay_dr @BretWeinstein @chrismartenson @franciscodeasis @carlzimmer @Ayjchan No response yet.
Ideally, that would imply pausing your forthcoming article in order to review more data.
If a formal response via letter would be better, I can start looking for co-authors; thankfully, most of the research is already done

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More from @CharlesRixey

17 Nov
@EthicalSkeptic's recent art. that expands upon his hyp. that COVID-19 started in 2018 vice 2019 is well-argued, but as a skeptic myself, I have concerns about his conclusions. Here's a few, for the moment:

@TyCardon @SteveDeaceShow @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson @dasher8090
[2] *Note: I plan on writing an article that offers fuller analysis, but I'm very interested in hearing all perspectives.

A) 1) Lack of Genomic Evidence
-Wuhan is still the geospatial source of COVID-19 infections-ALL sequences

@RadCentrism @BillyBostickson @gdemaneuf
[3] The SARS-CoV-2 genome was very stable from December 2019 until Fall 2020; in order for this to fit with E. Skeptics argument, both serial passaging & rapid mutation within a single immuno-compromised ind. are better at explaining certain evo. trends
@Daoyu15 @pathogenetics
Read 14 tweets
8 Nov
[1] Here's a primer on the major publications on each side of the GOF debate.
The first png pic traces the UNC-WIV-EHA-NIH research that could've honed the exact skills to create a virus withSARS-CoV-2's exact features:
@TheSeeker268 @R_H_Ebright @Ayjchan @quay_dr @thackerpd
*Note: The articles highlighted in Green ⬆️are works that highlight specific activities that could've supported the creation of a chimaera like SARS-CoV-2.

The articles in red⬇️represent work by opponents of GOF
@jjcouey @BretWeinstein @TyCardon @JasonButtrill @ianbirrell
[3] Here's the combined picture; the impact of censorship in early 2020 is once again blatantly obvious to anyone that looks, as Green indicates articles supporting a natural hypothesis - the same color as for those who conducted GOF exp. pre-COVID @chrismartenson @RepGallagher
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov
[1] I've heard from multiple sources
[fed officials, mil/civ drs, troops]
that cardiac/circ./neuro effects are impacting mil. readiness in a "statistically sig" way.
Mandates have collateral impacts
@jjcouey @JesseMatchey @w_mccairn @Doctor_I_am_The @Fynnderella1
[2] I use 'impacts' rather than 'damage' because the military is used to having to weigh the pros/cons of a decision, & fully understands that everything has a cost.
In fact, that's exactly why the mandate is so disingenuous...⬇️
@chrismartenson @BretWeinstein
[3] After all, it was the mil. [DARPA] that rejected EHA's PREEMPT proposal, because the spike+nanop. combo would be unable to create a stable vax-in BATS.⬇️Now, 3 yrs later, there's coercion via exec. order to force our mil. to use an MCM that the Army's own scientists, rejected
Read 4 tweets

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