An expert on coin tossing is correct 50% of the time.
An expert on burning houses should be consulted before you flee one.
All other forms of experts know just enough to craft an outcome as an apparent success.
We are fully unaware that randomness and obviousness can be dressed up as realms of exclusive expertise.
The expert can therefore delude themself into regarding that their ability to surf randomness and spot obviousness, all stem from their specialized training.

In such a circumstance, newbies consistently defeat veterans.
At best therefore, expertise can be defined as 'that which prepares one to negotiate randomness and spot obviousness, more reliably than the average person'.

The good news is that this actually does exist, but is more rare as a skill than is generally perceived.

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