Thread by @gilpincast

-: Generator Functions of Existential Risk :-

Mega thread! Inspired by hrs of pcasts by Daniel Schmachtenberger (@danielkenobe), one of many interesting heterodox thinkers. Plenty of links to original content below, else my paraphrased wrds. Let's go! My 1st thread, go easy 🙏🏼

What *are* 'generator functions of existential risk'? The maximum abstraction of underlying harm causing functions/behaviours/motivations of human beings that could lead to societal collapse. Laymans: Why do humans f@&k things up and endanger the survival of their own species? 😬

🤔 1st side note to consider - is our (global) civilisation self-terminating? (go easy on this one 🙏🏻) 🤔

First, quick definitions and examples: Existential risk is human civilisation ending events, catastrophic risk is major catastrophes with humans surviving in some form. What are some egs of the threats we face? Just to get you fully in the mood. ie Depressed. Hopefully not 😏

EGs 1/5
Exponential technological disruption
Exponential weaponisation and escalation - nuclear arsenals, weaponised drones, IT system hacks, weaponised AI
Exponential Science tech risks - CRISPR, Gain of Function research (pandemics!)

EGs 2/5
Non anti-fragile systems and their disruption - Carrington event, power system failures, supply chain interconnectivity, over reliance on fragile digital systems (FB outage anyone?), over reliance on fragile interconnected systems

EGs 3/5
Earth carrying capacity limits / unsustainable resource consumption
Global warming / climate disruptions, soil quality degradation Species extinction, deforestation, factory farming, fish stocks collapse
Fossil fuels, carbon pollution, plastic pollution
Woah, that's a lot

EGs 4/5
Radicalisation of fundamentalist destructive world views
Failures of governance systems and rise in identity politics
Totalitarianism, group think, captured institutions
Conspiracy, poor epistemics / belief biases
Politicisation and tribalisation of science, education 😯

EGs 5/5
Wealth distribution / inequality
Social media addiction and mental health crisis
Lack of personal sovereignty - enslavement, forced labour, human rights
Advertising AI shitfuckery / filter bubbles

😲 Ok that's enough! Not all of these are existential of course

🤔 2nd side note - many of these risks could be defined as ‘hyper objects’. Any one person cannot ‘see’ all of climate change for eg, so these objects require the ability to hold much complex info at one time which is challenging and vulnerable to ideological influence 🤔

So, *finally*, what are the underlying generator functions that are driving many of these issues? (Daniel lays out 3, descriptions of each function spill over into multiple tweets, sorry)

1. Rivalrous Dynamics w Exponentially More Technological Power

Win / lose zero sum game theory dynamics x exponential tech = existential risk
We are competing against each other (nation states, corporations, political groups) using more and more powerful technology to do so

Disinformation and sense making disruption as a game theory tactic - damages epistemic commons (ie how we collectively make sense)
Damage to physical commons (environment)
Multi polar traps!
Increasing power of choices without corresponding increase in wisdom/sense making

Final word on Generator Function No 1

To quote Daniel:

"Like running increasing fast through a forest increasingly blind"

Quote from me "That sounds less than ideal"

2. Narrow Sense Making / Non Omni Positive Solutions

Problems defined so narrowly that their ‘solutions’ generate more problems
Binary positions on complex issues – lack nuance or ability to hold multiple complex inputs and outputs regarding connected systems

Short term / one sided solutions = externalised harm
Drive winners and losers, create polarisation
Misaligned incentives driving poor solutions – if a tree is ‘worth more’ as 2 x 4s there will always be incentive to cut it down, wout factoring its value in the system of nature

3. Closed Versus Open Loop Atomic Cycling

Turning complex systems (a tree, a forest, the ocean, mining commodities) into complicated resources whilst creating externalised waste and pollution
Humans damage with extraction, then create waste – this is open loop

Forest reuses everything and rebuilds itself
A house/computer/car is built and then fails with entropy hence is not self-repairing
Extraction for profit = harm externalisation to the commons on which everyone depends

Ok, links!!

Here is a series of podcasts interviewing Daniel about these generator functions. If you’re like me, many, many ‘mind blown’ moments will be had 🤯🤯🤯

Tag @FutureThinkers_

futurethinkers.org/daniel-schmach…

Check out Rebel Wisdom’s War On Sensemaking series (5 of these vids + many other discussions with Daniel. Rebel Wisdom = super high quality discussions, great source of intellectual expansion and insights)

Tag @WisdomRebel
@fullydavid
@AlexanderBeiner

Emerge Podcast episode (this is linked from Daniel’s personal blog 'Civilisation Emerging', much interesting info on there too)

Tag @whatisemerging
and @dthorson 🙏🏼

civilizationemerging.com/media/emerge-p…

I’m working on another thread to explain some solutions to these probs (many of these are discussed in these podcasts). As you can imagine this is much harder – first we need to 'define the problem well'. This article from Andrew Sweeny is a great start

medium.com/rebel-wisdom/t…

🤔 3rd side note – if ‘Game A’ was the set of motivations/functions that lead us to our current precarious position as a species, what would ‘Game B’ look like? (google Game B and include @jim_rutt and @jgreenhall in your searches) 🤔

Daniel (and many other respected thinkers) have created a project called *The Consilience Project* in an attempt to foster deeper sense-making structures and promote collective intelligence. Some great articles here, highly recommend

consilienceproject.org

Ok that's it! Thanks for reading. Tagging a few fav thinkers/interviewers (sorry if that's not Twitter kosher, love you all 😘)

@EricRWeinstein @tristanharris @SamHarrisOrg @bariweiss @BretWeinstein @AubreyMarcus @ceisenstein

More words about all this on my blog. Much love 🙏🏼

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