Musing aloud about the major global macro themes. These seem to be...
1. How much team transitory was wrong, initially, and what central banks will / should do about it. Complicated by the recent change in the Fed targeting regime which has confused things.
2. The vanishing labour supply, post covid. Super-imposed [particularly in the US] on the vanishing male labour supply longer term.
3. Related to the more general point about what the post covid trajectory for output is, and when we will return to it.
4. 3 obviously bound up with prospects for the virus and its control; more immediately, boosters vs the winter wave; differences in political necessity/preparedness to resort to lockdown measures to respond.
5. The rammifications of and prospects for resolution of the various aspects of the supply-chain problems.
6. China - amongst many important issues, a) likelihood of a disorderly credit crisis b) prospects for normalization of interactions with rest of world, given the progress of the virus.
7. Risks of political confrontation in Europe with Russia over Ukraine spilling over into an energy crisis.
8. More parochially, the prospects for resolving the EU/UK dispute over the NI Protocol without a trade war.
9. The pre-covid list of concerns like; are we doomed to grow by not very much now; are the forces that caused very low natural rates going to reverse anytime soon [demographics, debt, inequality].
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