Musing aloud about the major global macro themes. These seem to be...
1. How much team transitory was wrong, initially, and what central banks will / should do about it. Complicated by the recent change in the Fed targeting regime which has confused things.
2. The vanishing labour supply, post covid. Super-imposed [particularly in the US] on the vanishing male labour supply longer term.
3. Related to the more general point about what the post covid trajectory for output is, and when we will return to it.
4. 3 obviously bound up with prospects for the virus and its control; more immediately, boosters vs the winter wave; differences in political necessity/preparedness to resort to lockdown measures to respond.
5. The rammifications of and prospects for resolution of the various aspects of the supply-chain problems.
6. China - amongst many important issues, a) likelihood of a disorderly credit crisis b) prospects for normalization of interactions with rest of world, given the progress of the virus.
7. Risks of political confrontation in Europe with Russia over Ukraine spilling over into an energy crisis.
8. More parochially, the prospects for resolving the EU/UK dispute over the NI Protocol without a trade war.
9. The pre-covid list of concerns like; are we doomed to grow by not very much now; are the forces that caused very low natural rates going to reverse anytime soon [demographics, debt, inequality].

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More from @t0nyyates

25 Nov
Wonder if Haldane will stick it out for much longer now we are told there is no new money for ‘Levelling Up’.
Can’t really expect The Department For Taking a Bit Away From Here and Adding it There to work miracles snd undo centuries of place based disadvantage.
White Paper 1: ‘we must take away a bit here and add it there’.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
Agree with almost all of this column. Except. A big reason why the Tories aren’t trying to privatize the NHS is because it isn’t popular. And it’s not popular because the idea is frequently talked about, and negatively.
Effort spent defending itself against privatization charges is not likely to be very large, and it is naive to think that it simply impedes good natured work towards reform. It’s part of what underpins the status quo.
It seems unlikely to me that somehow Brits are ideologically wedded to public provision. It’s what they know; and regularly contrasting it with other private provision models helps mould the view that what they know is best stuck to.
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
This is like one of @robmanuel's bots. Lots of drama and disdain. Means nothing.
Old core Tory MPs. Totally ignorant numpties need upending. Entire system is a project. See 1960s Greenland rewilding or Taiwan film production. Unusual brains and fast dashboard info can rewire policy production. Smell the javascipt coffee or VL will make web war.
Classic SW1 think-tank rando. Remain to Brexit is dial-up to fibre. Whitehall simpleton-MSM is a vector of sleep. Manhatten Project was quick so anything is codable. Just need to kill procurement flunkies.
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
I don't think central bankers actually holding office should be proposing fiscal frameworks, or fiscal policy settings. The suggestions themselves are interesting and sensible.
The ECB, like other central banks, was given independence to protect monetary policy from politicicans who might be tempted to use monetary policy to create booms before elections; or to inflate away their fiscal problems.
This has a cost in that there is a loss of immediate democratic control over the operation of monetary policy. That is a cost if you think democratic control over policy levers is a good thing.
Read 7 tweets
9 Nov
The university start-up fearlessly pursuing truth. Main point seems to be to market superstar public intellectuals. Not sure these people are best suited to delivering frontier content to students.
They are superstar intellectuals because they have specialized in making themselves superstars by writing popular books for people like me that pick them up at airports.
It sounds more like a cool podcast series. And a cool podcast series is not a new university. Or it's a very different kind of university!
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
Obviously, the first best thing to do about climate change is to get a collective agreement to stop emitting and prevent warming to the point where climate change impoverishes us and fellow species too much more.
But if you're a small country, your own good behaviour won't make much if any difference to the global outcome: if you think the likelihood of everyone else doing the right thing is low, the best thing to do is to tilt investment to adaptation/mitigation.
And if others think that you think that + will tilt investmenet to mitigation and adaptation, they might too, validating your own pessimism. Leading to us collectivey giving up on limiting climate change, or not doing enough to limit it as much as we could.
Read 18 tweets

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