The choice has never been between "living life as before" and "living with restrictions".

The choice is between living with slight inconveniences that we can choose ourselves, and living with impacts that the virus forces on us.

reuters.com/world/europe/d…
In Norway, which is much less badly affected, hospitals across the country are cancelling some elective surgery that requires an overnight stay, because of a lack of hospital beds.
Meanwhile, at St. Olav's Hospital in Trondheim they've just introduced a requirement for outpatients to wear masks in common areas. And for staff to wear masks if they cannot maintain a safe distance from patients (it's airborne!!!).

Was that really too great a sacrifice before?
Yes, life has to go on as normally as possible, but why the **** can't we:

Give HCWs and patients appropriate PPE to protect against airborne infection. And require them to wear it.

Improve ventilation/filtration in high-risk settings like hospitals, schools, some factories.
Provide financial incentives and encouragement for all other locations with potential for superspreading events – offices, gyms, restaurants, bars, swimming pools – to upgrade their HVAC systems in order to reduce the risk of transmission of airborne pathogens.
Provide proper financial and practical support to people who are sick or are very close contacts of confirmed cases.

Give consistent messaging on the above. And explain risks: indoors, more people, poor ventilation, no filtration, longer time, sport, singing, talking loudly etc.
And at the end of our collective European exercise of pretending Covid doesn't exist anymore - just like last summer - most of us have ended up with more intrusive restrictions than the ones we couldn't endure a second longer a few months ago, because we were so sick of Covid.
Sorry about the rant, but I'm a tiny bit tired of us going round and round the same roundabout, and always taking a wrong turn that leads down a dead end, and then returning to the roundabout, doing a few more laps, and then taking the same wrong turn again.

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More from @BarclayBenedict

26 Nov
Some thoughts on what Nu's growth might mean in terms of transmission advantage over Delta.

Imagine R(t) for Delta was ~1 in South Africa, with Delta at low, stable levels. If community level protection from vaccination/prior infection falls from e.g. 70% (Delta) to 55% (Nu)...
then R(t) for Nu will be ~1.5, assuming R(0) is the same for both. This will allow Nu to grow fairly rapidly, and soon dominate overall cases.

If we say SA population is:

35% vaccinated
55% infected
10% neither

then 70% community protection could be a weighted average of:
75% protection (vaxxed)
80% protection (prior inf.)
0% protection (neither)

as (75*35 + 80*55 + 0*10)/100 = ~70

Meanwhile, 55% protection for Nu might be:

30% + 80% + 0% (vaxxed, prior, neither) - i.e. vaccine escape

or:

75% + 50% + 0% – i.e. less protection from prior inf.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
The idea that the UK is seeing more Covid cases than other Western European countries because it is testing more is one that refuses to die. I know it's often made in bad faith, but anyway...

First, positive rates are low in most of those countries, e.g. Spain/France.

1/6
So yes, they're testing less, but because they have fewer people with symptoms, fewer contacts, etc. If they had high rates of cases with low testing, the positive rate would be high.

In terms of cases, we can see how UK diverged from rest of Western Europe over Aug/Sept.

2/6
After cases, you get to hospital admissions. Here I've moved forward a week, to allow for a bit of delay between testing positive and being admitted to hospital.

Spain and France, which were high for cases, also start high for hospital admissions, but gradually fall.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
8 Apr
Yesterday we were shown various slides comparing risks of rare side effects of AZ jab and Covid in different age groups. At first sight they look nice, but really they raise as many questions as they answer.

THREAD
The first issue is the incidence they use, which is 2 per 10,000 people for "low prevalence". They don't say what time frame that refers to, but they give a hint: roughly UK in March. UK in March reported around 80 per million per week, or 0.8 per 10K.
That's less than 2, but assuming that slightly over half of cases are missed, we can assume incidence is per 7 days. However, that raises a new issue. The rate is now half that, and falling fast. So really, the current risk of contracting Covid is much lower than they're assuming
Read 11 tweets

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