Emergency extension of the y-axis. Big clue that something important is happening.
For those wondering about hospitalisations - the effect is noisier, and a few days lagged, but also clear.
Worth noting that at the start of that last period (43-46), and allowing for the 7 days for the booster to take effect, less than half of the 80+ double-vaccinated group & less than a quarter of the 70-79s had been boosted.

This is just a hint of the full effect.

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More from @PaulMainwood

24 Nov
Double good news from Wales this morning.
First, the taps are back on and they're back on full; the UK received 5.5m further doses this week - effectively a double delivery & making up for the one missed last week.
Second, that 25m doses we've got in stock; it's more than 25m.
The reason: the 25m is calculated as:
Doses received - Doses administered - Waste + Dose squeezing (getting more out of vial than the official count) = ~25m doses at present.
But Moderna dose is different between doses 1 and 2 (50ml each) & booster (25ml). So how's it counted?
It really matters too - UK has only used ~3m of the 17m Moderna doses it's ordered on primary doses. So might the remaining 14m be doubled?
Until now, no clarity, and I had wondered whether such a recalculation might be behind the big jump in UK stocks in September (+14m!)
Read 5 tweets
21 Nov
The explanation is surely obvious to anyone with ten seconds thought? Surely?
Clue: Think about the average age of the vaccinated and unvaccinated within the 10-59 group he's chosen.
God, it seems he's even using second doses (chart above gives first doses) which makes it even worse.

By my rough maths:

Mean age of vaccinated in 10-59 group is 43.
Mean age of unvaccinated in same group is 24.

(I am not an actuary - can almost certainly be done better).
Read 8 tweets
18 Nov
Trying to keep objective.
But looking at the numbers around boosters, my main concern is that the results are being absurdly undersold.
Most people are sick of COVID, sick of being told what to do, and are thinking of boosters are a nice-to-have.
They are transformative.
The control trials, and the real-world data agree. Boosters don't just restore your protection against COVID. They make it *better* than it ever was with two doses.
Result: we boost less than half of 80+s in the UK, and the observations nearly break my graph.
But will this boosted protection - however impressive - also wane eventually?
We don't have much data yet. But the first person to be boosted now 8+ months clear. And his antibody results are still topping out higher than the test can register.
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
Right, Boosters. Comms.

As replies to this tweet make clear: simply shouting this number is not compelling. Not many people know what "95.6%" means, or how they got to it.

A few notes on why this is the most compelling COVID news this year. 1/n
It's the result of a randomised control trial. Worth saying what that is
In a RCT, you take a large number of people (10,000 in this case - all double-jabbed), give each a number and then ask a computer to silently assign each person randomly, probability 50:50, to Group 1 or 2.
If they are in Group 1, they get a Pfizer booster shot. If they are in Group 2, they get an ineffective placebo (but are still double-jabbed).
The important bit: The assignments are totally random. And no-one knows who's in each group - not the participants, not the doctors. 3/
Read 16 tweets
9 Nov
Booster progress.
And... Scotland has overtaken Wales! Both measured by share of eligible and by share of (ONS) population.

Thing is, I find this slightly worrying. It adds to a list of indicators that suggests take-up, NOT roll-out is now the limiting factor on boosters.
Just looking historically, the pattern always goes: Wales always wins on pace.
Scotland always wins on final takeup (allowing for denominator fun - the comparisons are the same).

This straight from dashboard at: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…
So, the fact that Scotland are ahead already suggests (weakly) that it might already be a take-up game, not a roll-out race.
This could be wrong. Scotland or Wales could have changed their approaches.
But look at this from @john_actuary (England only)
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
England is horribly behind in its current phase of vaccine roll-out: boosters and teens.
- Teens: England is falling way behind Scotland, which started at the same time.
- Boosters: England is falling way its own pace of 2nd doses earlier in the year.
Teens: Chart tells the story.
One difference is that Scottish teens can access drop-in venues while English teens cannot. (2/4)
Boosters: We're falling behind the second dose pace from 6 months ago - the backlog of people eligible but not boosted is actually increasing. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets

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