And finally, some reporting on things the counter-Christian-Nationalist community has been reporting on since 2006: Namely, how Christian Nationalist groups in the US have cozied up to anti-LGBTQIA groups in Russia, including within Putin's innner circle.
@brucewilson has been sounding the alarm bells loud and clear for a LONG time, including in 2014 warning how Christian Nationalist groups were in with Putin's #2 at the time, Vladimir Yakunin, particular WCF and New Apostolic Reformation groups:
In fact, he's been sounding the alarms since *2006* on this, noting how Christian Nationalists in the US were partnering with Vladimir Yakunin even back then, and targeting the Russian Orthodox Church for partnership:
@RTabachnick has likewise been sounding the alarm early, noting how the Christian Nationalist-controlled GOP in Texas has made overtures with New Apostolic Reformation types that have targeted Jewish people in Russia and Ukraine for conversion:
They also wrote very early on how the Prince and DeVos families (longtime Christian Nationalists and intimately connected to the Trump admin) worked with the Putin admin and NAR groups to found Christian Nationalist universities in Russia:
And again, they sounded the alrm all the way back in 2009 on how conversion of Jewish people in Russia and Ukraine to "Messianics" was one way they were ingratiating themselves with the Russian government:
Mother Jones magazine noted how Christian Nationalist anti-LGBT Holocaust-revisionist Scott Lively (he'll show up later...) and WCF were deeply connected with people in the Putin govt in 2014 and how WCF had international links as early as 1995:
The Nation also wrote an article in early 2014 on how the WCF basically was the core of the liason between Christian Nationalists in the US (particularly New Apostolic Reformation) and the Russian Orthodox Church and Putin admin
@billberk was sounding the alarm about Franklin Graham loud and early as well, noting how he was ingratiating himself with the Putin regime and friendly members of the Duma back in 2014:
@Barthsnotes (of Bartholomew's Notes on Religion) was sounding the alarm as early as *2008*, noting how Paul Cameron (an anti-LGBT Christian Nationalist promoting degaying "therapy") was pushing conspiracy theology at Moscow State University:
And in fact @Barthsnotes noted as early as 2006 how Christian Nationalists in the NAR were actually targeting Russian prisons--and possibly recruiting (and being recruited by) members of the Russian mob:
And in 2007, @Barthsnotes did an article on how an obscure NAR group did a liason between Christian Nationalists in the US, a friendly in the Israeli Knesset connected to the Russian mob...and a certain Oleg Deripaska.
Yes, the very self-same Oleg Deripaska intimately connected to the Trump-Russia Affair, the same one who got Magnitsky Act sanctions removed personally by Trump, the same one who got his houses in the US raided a month ago by the FBI:
And, yet again, Scott Lively--holocaust-revisionist Scott Lively, "gay Illuminati" Scott Lively--shows up again, as a bestie to Cru's Bill Bright, and also to a group called The Gathering dedicated to exporting Christian Nationalist hate worldwide
Seriously, there's been a LOT of documentation early on about how Christian Nationalists, particularly *NAR linked* Christian Nationalists, have been trying to foment an anti-LGBTQIA genocide and got VERY cozy with the Putin admin:
And yes, I'm one of those who've tried to sound the alarm too as an #exvangelical and escapee from the NAR. Including on how a NAR-linked hate group was attacking LGBTQIA people in Russia and Russian emigre communities worldwide:
And again...you're seeing Scott Lively show up (who not only helped ghost-write Russia's anti-LGBTQIA legislation but also Uganda's "kill the gays" bill), who....has QUITE the history of not only Holocaust-revisionism but even frank anti-Semitism
(I am unfortunately quite familiar with Lively's work. It was heavily promoted in the NAR group I escaped, which actually was so anti-LGBT that they managed to shock my city into passing a Fairness law.
It's also why I never came out to my folks when they were alive.)
24/x
Another lovely fellow in that den is Joseph Fuiten, who supported the violent Watchmen on the Walls, and also called (on national TV, in 2007) for non-Christian-Nationalists to be stripped of citizenship and deported or put in concentration camps
And, well, the Russo-Latvian head of the violent Watchmen on the Walls...apparently would speak regularly to anti-LGBTQIA Assemblies of God pastors who'd spread the hate (and the Russian connections) far and wide:
So yeah, this stuff has been documented...for a WHILE by those of us who research. We've been trying to sound the alarm for at least 15 years now that Christian Nationalists in the US are using their playbook to turn Russia into Gilead:
And it's entirely possible that (thanks to the Trump maladministration and *those* links with Russia) that the doors were opened as far back as 1994 by Christian Nationalists for what would ultimately be the greatest act of seditious conspiracy since 1861.
29/end
@unrollthread
@KEES1204 @UnrollThread They literally do not care, as long as they get their Gilead (and they figure that any heretics can be destroyed after they take over, assuming they're not converted from within). And the WCF and its anti-LGBTQIA activities are EXACTLY the camel's nose NAR groups have used
2/2
@KEES1204 @UnrollThread ...are more than happy to play along on THEIR end, so long as they get some state (preferably with nuclear weapons) that can go *FULL* Gilead, actually do a violent anti-LGBTQIA genocide and religious war/purge (a la Efrain Rios Montt)
2/2
@threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Polls don't vote. People do. Today and tomorrow is where we seal the deal and bring it home and that only happens when we vote in NUMBERS.
It looks good so far, but it's always better to get MOAR and make it OVERWHELMING--important in light of GOP lawfare threats
2/x
So the things important for y'all voting on Election Day:
a) Many states require businesses to give you off time to vote
b) Need a way to get to polls? Most public transit agencies give free transportation, and Uber/Lyft give discounted rides, also Urban League can help
3/x
@Politics_Polls @MorningConsult And here, I'm going to remind folks of my First Law of Political Polling:
Never, ever, *ever* trust any political polling group that refuses to publish its crosstabs freely and not locked up behind a paywall (including a paid subscription wall).
1/x
@Politics_Polls @MorningConsult Yes, there's a VERY SPECIFIC reason I say Never Trust Anyone Who Won't Share Their Crosstabs Publicly And For Free.
Almost without *exception*, any group refusing to publish a breakout of basic things like "size of pool", "composition of pool", and so on is Hiding Something
2/x
@Politics_Polls People talk a lot now about "herding" in polls. Probably THE most common way "herding" occurs is through issues of weighting members of a poll, and I'm going to lay out the many ways that just *weighting* the people in a pool can seriously fuck with a result
3/x
So digging through the state-level Marist polls, and we are seeing more evidence (already indicated by both the CES national poll with 78k respondents AND previous Marist polls) of a "Dobbs Effect" that is reaching strongly even into white evangelical Christian pops
1/x
So Marist is one of two polls that tend to be less hot garbage than most, and tend to go into some deeper details like sub-surveying of self-identified white evangelical Christians. And this is a MAJOR barometer for a Dobbs Effect, as I'll explain below
2/x
Something like 15% of Americans self-identify as "white evangelicals" in larger religious surveys by PIRR and Pew Forum, and these populations (in deeper studies of Christian Nationalism and New Apostolic Reformation/Seven Mountains theology) are extremely R-trending
3/x
Even IF Biden had outright called MAGAts "garbage" he'd not have been wrong and he would have arguably been CHARITABLE to *merely* call them "garbage" after that "Daily Scheisser Live" three-sheets-short-of-a-cross-burning Hate Rally at MSG
Like, literally, let's JUST go over what was pushed THIS WEEKEND AT AFOREMENTIONED HATE RALLY, and I will remind EVERYONE here that *all of this was explicitly approved to the point it showed up on teleprompters and in rehearsals* so they damn well KNEW what was up
2/x
a) Has a shock "comedian"--who was so infamously racist he got banned from Joe Rogan's club, and who was originally going to include a routine referring to the VPOTUS as a <C-BOMB>--does the infamous "PR is a floating island of garbage" routine
And this is where I talk about a particular effect of WHY polling has gone to hell (and about all that you can get that's useful is things from crosstabs)
I have dubbed this the Straw Market Problem, and it's an issue even beyond political polls
1/x
@garymauney @matthewjdowd More properly, I should refer to this as the Nassau Straw Market Problem, because it relates to a particularly infamous straw market (which does not exist anymore in its older form) and is an example of how aggressive capitalism and marketing can shit up *everything*
2/x
@garymauney @matthewjdowd Up until 2 yrs ago, the Port of Nassau had its cruise ship terminal (1000s of ppl/day) empty its exit/entry into an outdoor vendor hall/outdoor mall you HAD to pass through to exit the port to get into downtown Nassau (the Straw Market in question)
3/x
And just so people know I don't just look at GOP-friendly polls with a hairy eye, I look at ALL polls with a hairy eye: Big Village CARAVAN, which *is* looking good for Harris but STILL has methodology issues that can skew it rightward
So looking at their polling they appear to gather from "opt-in online panels", which is a real fancy term for "Used paid-survey portals".
Which that introduces a risk of pool-poisoning, as we've seen from sites that use YouGov in particular
2/x
They also use some rather odd weighting for their grouping--in addition to ACS (which weights for population), it weights based on *vote in 2020*, which actually RISKS missing a lot of voters--much of GenZ and Gen Alpha only became registered voters in 2022 or this year
3/x