Popping in to say that 1) number of mutations does not directly translate to whether it is more transmissible/more severe 2) there is currently no data to determine if it is more transmissable than delta (which is what it would need to be in order to displace Delta) and
3) We don’t know if it causes more severe or more moderate disease (ex: new variant in UK few weeks ago only slightly more transmissible but less severe than delta). And 4) lots of confounders with current South Africa data. We’ll know more soon.
Also wanted to remind everyone that variants are very unlikely fully evade immune response.Ex: Vaccines are polyclonal, meaning that they cover 60 different T-cell epitopes!T-cells can also adapt to new variants (which is why we ~stan~ t cells and b cells. More in this clip here:

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More from @Alicia_Smith19

26 Nov
What doctors in South Africa are seeing thus far: theguardian.com/world/2021/nov… Image
Summary of clinical outcomes for Nu I’ve seen thus far (caveat:still early):
-1 case in HK:Asymptomatic (vaccinated, no booster, no evidence of oneard transmission in household)
-4 Botswana cases:Asymptomatic (vaccinated)
-1 case in Belgium:Flu symptoms,not severe (Unvaccinated)
-Head doctor in SA saying so far cases are “extremely mild” (note: SA’s vaccination rate is about 23% fully vaccinated)

*All this to say though it’s still early and this could change. But at this time, havent seen severe breakthroughs. Will try to monitor other instances
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
Yeah, most of America has correctly come to accept covid as an endemic illness, that will circulate until the end of time just like 200+ other respiratory illnesses, and we’re not going to be charged with a crime for going outside in a futile effort to end a respiratory illness.
You would think after 2.5 months of a police-enforced lockdown, people in favor of covid-zero policies would be dismayed that covid rates in Australia continue to reach new heights.

Alas, they are re-invigorated!
But I was told Australian lockdowns were a rip-roaring success and extremely effective, so effective that they are even killing dogs as a deterrent 2.5 months into lockdown.
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
I have received some questions regarding the use of Ivermectin. The FDA has weighed in and is advising against it.

As has other state govts like Mississippi, where 2/3rds of recent calls to poison control have been from ivermectin ingestion fda.gov/consumers/cons…
Omg why did I kick the ivermectin hive 😑
Read 4 tweets
18 Aug
Here he will announce booster doses starting for people ~8 months after vaccination, starting with nursing homes/elderly.

I have a (long) thread on boosters if anybody is interested. Come on a journey with me 🌈😊 1/X
i have concerns with the conversation around boosters because it complicates the mssg of “get vaccinated/protect yourself from severe illness”. It brings up questions like “are fully vaccinated people no longer protected?” even tho they are still protected. So why boosters? (2/x)
As for why a booster is needed, it depends on which demographic is being referenced. EX:roughly 90%+ of people hospitalized for covid right now are unvaccinated.The 10% of people hospitalized who are vaccinated are almost exclusively people who are elderly/immunocompromised (3/x)
Read 10 tweets
17 Aug
Another take on prospects for covid vaccines going forward.

There’s a working theory that the reason UK/Canada have less deaths in their wave (besides higher vaccine uptake) is that the spacing of their doses further apart caused stronger antibody response.
what does this mean for US vaccines? Even with our shorter dosing schedule, we are still highly protected from severe breakthrough due to strong t-cell/b-cell response. But shorter antibody robustness means we have more symptomatic breakthroughs and thus
higher cumulative chance of severe breakthroughs compared to UK/Canada. Ex: while effectiveness against severe is the same across all countries, let’s say we have 100 symptomatic breakthroughs and UK has 20 symptomatic breakthroughs, and vaccine efficacy is 95% against severe,
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
We need clarity on this.

Below citation would suggest that the CDC’s assertion yesterday that they have data showing vaccinated individuals can transmit delta variant due to similar viral load as unvaccinated is partially based off of…a model…using non-US approved vaccines
The excerpt from above is citation 96 on here.

The guidance then goes on to cite unpublished data and ongoing experiments. Hoping the CDC makes the pending data public very soon, using real-world experiments and US approved vaccines instead of a model.
Link to guidance where this seriously flawed study is cited as a basis for this guidance change (citation 96) cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Read 7 tweets

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