Looking at findings in the YouGov survey for The Times & comparing to Panelbase findings.
It makes bad reading for Nicola Sturgeon and her constitutional agenda.
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It makes bad reading for Nicola Sturgeon and her constitutional agenda.
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▶️Regarding indyref2 timing...
| YouGov Sample: 1060 Adults (16+)
18th - 22nd November 2021 |
Nicola Sturgeon said recently "We intend to take the steps that will enable a referendum to happen before the end of 2023."
But the public *clearly* do not support this - at all.
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| YouGov Sample: 1060 Adults (16+)
18th - 22nd November 2021 |
Nicola Sturgeon said recently "We intend to take the steps that will enable a referendum to happen before the end of 2023."
But the public *clearly* do not support this - at all.
[2/9
YouGov found that in May (2nd-4th):
55% opposed holding another referendum next year, but even more significantly 50% opposed holding one before 2023.
In fact, only 34% backed Nicola Sturgeon's preferred timetable.
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55% opposed holding another referendum next year, but even more significantly 50% opposed holding one before 2023.
In fact, only 34% backed Nicola Sturgeon's preferred timetable.
[3/9
And in November (18th-22nd):
Now 68% oppose holding another indyref next year. And 60% oppose holding one before 2023.
Nicola Sturgeon's 2023 timetable has precious little public support.
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Now 68% oppose holding another indyref next year. And 60% oppose holding one before 2023.
Nicola Sturgeon's 2023 timetable has precious little public support.
[4/9
As an aside, these YouGov findings fits nicely with the poll of poll average of Panelbase's last 6 polls on this question. Panelbase poll of poll ave found found only 34% of Scots support holding another indyref 'in the next two-five years'.
So YouGov seems accurate.
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So YouGov seems accurate.
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▶️On Independence support...
Nothing has changed. Despite seven years and so much effort by the nationalists to weaponize brexit - literally nothing has fundamentally altered regarding levels of support for leaving the UK.
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Nothing has changed. Despite seven years and so much effort by the nationalists to weaponize brexit - literally nothing has fundamentally altered regarding levels of support for leaving the UK.
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YouGov found:
40% support leaving the UK, 46% oppose leaving as of November. Compare to this to when YouGov last asked this question in May, nothing really changed (support for leaving the UK actually dropped 1% between May and Nov, but it's margin of error territory)
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40% support leaving the UK, 46% oppose leaving as of November. Compare to this to when YouGov last asked this question in May, nothing really changed (support for leaving the UK actually dropped 1% between May and Nov, but it's margin of error territory)
[7/9
So when Nicola Sturgeon says she "intend to take the steps that will enable a referendum to happen before the end of 2023", she won't.
The independence movement - much like Nicola Sturgeon's premiership - seems to be going nowhere.
Everything is stuck in treacle.
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The independence movement - much like Nicola Sturgeon's premiership - seems to be going nowhere.
Everything is stuck in treacle.
[8/9
Sources:
▪️ Panelbase
whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-y…
▪️YouGov
docs.cdn.yougov.com/hs8qg4labq/Tim…
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▪️ Panelbase
whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-y…
▪️YouGov
docs.cdn.yougov.com/hs8qg4labq/Tim…
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