The flooding in Spain was made twice as likely by climate change, and the rainfall 12% heavier.
#Climate change also made the warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures that added moisture to the storm 50-300 times more likely.
It used to be speculative laying the blame so firmly at the door of climate change. But the increasingly rapid work of attribution scientists means these things can be assessed within days.
Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic saturated the air with moisture, leading to 500ml of rainfall.
For reference 100ml fell on Midleton in Storm Babet last year.
We already understand how Greenland’s melting ice sheet (5 times faster now than in 2004) is adding freshwater that slows down the Atlantic’s circulation.
This new peer reviewed study published in @Nature Communications shows that there is an additional pressure on the #AMOC from melting arctic sea ice.
You can see how much of the outflow from the arctic sea comes down Greenland’s east coast to the North Atlantic.
@Nature The study shows how in the past (The Last Interglacial, 130,000 years ago) this melting arctic ice had a profound effect on the overturning circulation in the Nordic Sea, the engine of the AMOC, slowing it down dramatically.
Yesterday 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists wrote an open letter about collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation (AMOC)
When I interviewed one of them about the consequences of AMOC reaching a tipping point he could barely keep it together. 🧵
They warn that further weakening of the AMOC by global heating could trigger significant changes in weather patterns, extreme temperature shifts, rising sea levels, and disruption to marine ecosystems.
“We appeal to the Nordic Council of Ministers to take this risk seriously”
“If Britain and Ireland become like northern Norway, that has tremendous consequences. Our finding is that this is not a low probability,” Professor Peter Ditlevsen who predicts a tipping point in 2057
Ocean currents regulate the planet. Transferring heat and cold around the globe. One estimate suggests without the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) the seas at the equator would be 20c hotter and 20c colder to the north.
Short 🧵
#Climate
There is a lot of uncertainty amongst oceanographers about what is happening to the AMOC. But there is broad agreement global heating is slowing it down.
The most recent IPCC assessment says the chance of AMOC shutdown this century is low.
Recently a much criticised, but as yet not disproven study, suggested that repeated computer modelling indicates 2057 is the date that a tipping point (leading to eventual AMOC shutdown) will be reached.
Five facts that the climate scientists of the IPCC wanted you to know that the petro-states successfully lobbied to bury or fudge. 1/
This weeks report is the product of a long negotiation in which all the governments of the world horse trade.
Luckily there are minutes kept of who vetoed what. Some of it is important but not critical 👇
Some of it is absolutely vital to how the urgent need for action is framed.
For example some countries wanted to give greater prominence to the agreed fact that global emissions must peak and start coming down in under three years. The Saudis nixed that.