Was Trump the superspreader?
For a year, I’ve suggested Trump was the likely superspreader at White House Rose Garden on 9/28/20
All were supposedly tested, so how would a superspreader enter?
Now we know Trump tested COVID positive 2 days earlier.
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theguardian.com/us-news/2021/d…
For a year, I’ve suggested Trump was the likely superspreader at White House Rose Garden on 9/28/20
All were supposedly tested, so how would a superspreader enter?
Now we know Trump tested COVID positive 2 days earlier.
1/
theguardian.com/us-news/2021/d…
He was testing daily and on Sept 26th, 2 days before the Rose Garden Superspreader event, he tested positive on a fast molecular test.
Bc he was testing so frequently, he was likelu detected using a molecular test at the earliest time, before becoming infectious.
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Bc he was testing so frequently, he was likelu detected using a molecular test at the earliest time, before becoming infectious.
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So when he immediately tested again with a rapid Ag test, it did not yet register positive because he was not YET infectious
Had he used a rapid test later that day or next day though, once he was becoming slightly infectious, he almost certainly would have been positive
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Had he used a rapid test later that day or next day though, once he was becoming slightly infectious, he almost certainly would have been positive
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The decision to continue to not test on day of the Rose Garden superspreader event and on day of the debate with now @POTUS Biden was a massive, dangerous and likely intentional decision
Had he rapid tested that AM, he would have been blazing positive on a rapid Ag test
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Had he rapid tested that AM, he would have been blazing positive on a rapid Ag test
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The Rose Garden event is often held up as a “proof point” that rapid testing doesn’t work because it allowed a superspreader in
Besides this being N of 1, we now essentially know that it was not the case. The President didn’t test that day and was likely highly infectious
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Besides this being N of 1, we now essentially know that it was not the case. The President didn’t test that day and was likely highly infectious
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Now to the biology:
Some will ask: why was the molecular test positive and the rapid Ag negative 2 days before the event?
Bc there is a short window of time before ppl become infectious when molecular test is pos but a rapid Ag test negative. It’s usually less than a day
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Some will ask: why was the molecular test positive and the rapid Ag negative 2 days before the event?
Bc there is a short window of time before ppl become infectious when molecular test is pos but a rapid Ag test negative. It’s usually less than a day
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I’ve written extensively about this - that there is a small <24 hr time when not yet infectious & rapid Ag not yet pos. This is precisely why testing w any test (including PCR) days before an event doesn’t work. Had he PCR’d 3 days before, it would have also been negative
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I wrote about this 👇 and is a reason why testing just prior to an event, and not days before, is so critical - regardless of the type of test.
You can see the very short time when virus is going up when viral load is between PCR and Rapid Ag detection
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You can see the very short time when virus is going up when viral load is between PCR and Rapid Ag detection
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https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1438043450004365314
This is also why a rapid test is almost always the MORE effective test because it can be used to give real time information. If deciding on a PCR that takes two days to return vs a rapid test, then a rapid test the day of is essentially always better
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To sum up, the testing would have worked exactly as it should have.
The speed/access of rapid Ag test is what makes it so powerful to identify and stop transmission in real time
No test tells you if you’re going to turn positive in coming days
Test just before you enter
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The speed/access of rapid Ag test is what makes it so powerful to identify and stop transmission in real time
No test tells you if you’re going to turn positive in coming days
Test just before you enter
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Here is a really nice graph of the “effective sensitivity” of a *single test* based on when it is used prior to an event…
Thanks to @StephenKissler for putting this together!
Thanks to @StephenKissler for putting this together!
https://twitter.com/yhgrad/status/1466062084777537540?s=21
NOTE: Also, I have noted an error in my timeline. But all the biology and test theory described above remains the same and the likelihood of Trump as the superspreader only increased... he didn't even test that day until AFTER the Rose Garden event.
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https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1466099870041878539?s=20
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