Thread by @maddelucchi

The stupidest thing about this argument is this offseason's spending is mostly led by teams that have recently cut their spending. I'm making this a thread with every team's projected Opening Day payroll to show how most are far below levels from even just 5-10 years ago. (1/32)

https://twitter.com/EugeneFreedman/status/1466008586224644105

First some methods/sources:
-Contract terms from Spotrac
-Historical payroll data from BP
-If salaries have not been reported in FA deals, the AAV is used
-Spotrac's arb estimates
-Any team with less than 26 players signed will have their roster filled with $575k salaries (2/32)

Let's start with the lone exception, the Mets. Their projected Opening Day payroll is just under $237.5m, eclipsing their previous franchise record (195.4 in 2021). However, this shift is clearly tied to a change in ownership more than anything to do with the CBA. (3/32)

Here's where things become a clear indictment of ownership trends. The Rangers current projected Opening Day payroll, even with the additions of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun, is just under $120m, which is less than it was from 2012-2019. (4/32)

The Tigers projected Opening Day payroll after adding Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez is just under $115m. Their Opening Day payroll was less than $115m just once from 2008-2019 and averaged $176.7m from 2013-2017. (5/32)

The Blue Jays current projected Opening Day payroll is just over $138.5m, which would be the 3rd highest in franchise history. However, Toronto averaged OD payrolls just north of $145m from 2014-2018, when their too highest all-time payrolls were north of $160m. (6/32)

The Mariners projected Opening Day payroll after adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier is just $81.55m. Their Opening Day payroll exceeded that amount every year from 2002-2019. In fact, Seattle's Opening Day payroll was at least $142m from 2016-2019. (7/32)

The Giants have been quite active this offseason. However, even with several free-agent signing, their projected Opening Day payroll is just over $122.2m, their lowest since 2011 if you adjust for 2020's shortened season. Their payroll was never below $170m from 2015-2019. (8/32)

The Angels were one of the few teams that set their franchise Opening Day payroll record in 2021, just under $182m. After signing Syndergaard and Loup this offseason, their projected Opening Day payroll is about $174.6m, which would be the 2nd-highest mark in org history. (9/32)

The Astros are comparable to the Angels. They had their franchise's highest Opening Day payroll in 2021, about $187.45m, and after re-signing Justin Verlander, their projected Opening Day payroll is just below that mark at about $176.1m. (10/32)

The Marlins have been quite aggressive this offseason, and yet all that movement is projected to make just a $63.175m Opening Day payroll, a number they eclipsed from 2015-2019. (11/32)

The Cardinals have a $149.1m projected Opening Day payroll, mostly led by previous deals they signed with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. If you pro-rate the 2020 season, it would be their lowest mark since 2017. (12/32)

The White Sox have been quiet on the free-agent front this offseason, but they are set to have a franchise-record $175.4m Opening Day payroll next season, a nearly $50m jump over their record-setting mark in 2021. However, they are trying to cut payroll in trades. (13/32)

The Rays are currently set to have a team-record, $80.9m Opening Day payroll (Yes, it's absurd that would be a franchise-high). However, they are reportedly shopping Kiermaier. If he is moved, Tampa's Opening Day payroll would drop below their average from 2014-2018. (14/32)

The Red Sox are projected to have a $177.75m Opening Day payroll, which would be their lowest since 2014 (assuming pro-rated 2020). While that number is comparatively high, Boston's Opening Day payroll was at least $197m from 2016-2019, topping out at more than $236m. (15/32)

Atlanta is coming off a World Series title that came on the backs of a franchise-high Opening Day payroll just north of $131.4m. Their current projected Opening Day payroll is $129.975m. They'll likely set a new franchise record next year if they re-sign Freddie Freeman. (16/32)

The Dodgers current projected Opening Day payroll is just over $221.7m, which would only be the sixth-highest in franchise history. While that number is one of the highest in the league, it's also well below the $241.7 mark they averaged from 2013-2017. (17/32)

The Cubs projected Opening Day payroll of $84.86m would be the team's lowest since 2003 (assuming 2020 adjustment). They could double their 2022 payroll over the course of the offseason and it would still be their lowest since 2015. (18/32)

The Pirates have a $36.9m projected Opening Day payroll. They have only had an Opening Day payroll below that mark three times in the 21st century. They could double their 2022 payroll and it would still be less than their average Opening Day payroll from 2013-2019. (19/32)

The Nationals projected Opening Day payroll is just over $140m, which would be their lowest since 2014 (assuming adjustments for 2020). From 2014-2019, the Nats averaged a $164.5m Opening Day payroll and have previously approached $200m. (20/32)

The Yankees projected $212.4m Opening Day payroll might be notable for another franchise, but not them. They averaged a 212.2m Opening Day payroll from 2008-2016. Despite huge revenue increases leaguewide, the most valuable franchise in MLB has had its payroll plateau. (21/32)

The Brewers have a roughly $107.6m projected Opening Day payroll, which would be the second-highest in franchise history, but some distance behind their 2019 mark, which was more than $122.5m. (22/32)

The Rockies $97.2m projected Opening Day payroll would be their lowest since 2015 (adjusting for shortened 2020). In fact, the team eclipsed a $127m Opening Day payroll each year from 2017-2019, peaking at $145.2m in 2019. (23/32)

The Diamondbacks have a $73.66m projected Opening Day payroll, which would be their second-lowest since 2010 (adjusting for 2020). They are more than $30m below their average Opening Day payroll from 2013-2019 ($104.7m). (24/32)

The Orioles have a projected Opening Day payroll of $44.3m. That would be their lowest Opening Day payroll since 1995!!!!!! (assuming adjustment for 2020) That number is less than A THIRD of their average Opening Day payroll from 2014-2018. (25/32)

The Reds projected Opening Day payroll is $114.8m, which would be their lowest since 2018 (assuming adjustments for 2020). The team's highest Opening Day payroll is $126.7m in 2019. (26/32)

The Guardians have a $44.925m projected Opening Day payroll, which would be the team's lowest since 2005 (assuming adjustment for 2020). That is less than 1/3 of their franchise-high Opening Day payroll back in 2018, which was just under $134.9m. (27/32)

The Royals have a projected $80.575m Opening Day payroll, which would be the team's lowest since 2012. Kansas City's Opening Day payroll was at least $112m every year from 2015-2018 and peaked at just over $143m, in 2017. (28/32)

The Twins have a projected Opening Day payroll of just over $78.9m, which would be their lowest since 2009 (adjusting for 2020). It would be the first time it was below $100m since 2014 and is nearly $50m less than their highest Opening Day payroll ($128.7m) in 2019. (29/32)

The Padres are projected to have their franchise's highest Opening Day payroll for the second consecutive year. It was $174.1m in 2021 and is currently projected to be just under 180.7m. (29/32)

The A's are projected to have a $79.8m Opening Day payroll and it's only expected to get lower when they unload several prominent players. It's already just the 7th-highest Opening Day payroll in franchise history, and will likely be even lower. (30/32)

The Phillies are projected to have a $164.9m Opening Day payroll, which would be the 4th-highest in franchise history and is more than $25m less than last year's Opening Day payroll, which was just north of $191m. (31/32)

There are FAs left, but most of the big money has been spent. There are as many franchises with payrolls where they were 10+ years ago as there are setting franchise records. Revenues have skyrocketed, salaries haven't. A spicy couple days of deals doesn't change that. (32/32)