Mark Wallace of Con Home being interviewed on Sky about Cons prospects at Bexley Sidcup.
Playing down expectations now that that TOut is confirmed
news.sky.com/watch-live
Playing down expectations now that that TOut is confirmed
news.sky.com/watch-live
Starmer never visited the seat ( he's been on an oil rig today apparently) because Lab's expectations have been so low.
Results c 1.30 am now ( counting faster than expected)
Results c 1.30 am now ( counting faster than expected)
Jon Craig notes KS also not on the leaflets etc. Craig notes that this is odd.
Craig notes that James Brokenshire MP had 64% of the vote here
Cons would be happy with over 50%, but if 30-40% - they would be concerned.
Tory voters, doorstep here mentioned COP26 & heating bills.
(LDs didn't resource here - informal arrangement w Lab)
Cons would be happy with over 50%, but if 30-40% - they would be concerned.
Tory voters, doorstep here mentioned COP26 & heating bills.
(LDs didn't resource here - informal arrangement w Lab)
Mark Wallace ( Brexitty Con Home website) agrees that Cons party would be happy w 50% of the vote share here in Bexley & Sidcup.
Jess Elgot thinks Shropshire door-stepping going well for the LDs
Jess Elgot thinks Shropshire door-stepping going well for the LDs
btw result expected 1.30am
https://twitter.com/bnhwalker/status/1466566651516792833
Older link. Context
https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1466096429370384388
again, Cons set to hold onto this seat but w reduced maj
Here's a Guardian piece from earlier in week, testing temperature there
Here's a Guardian piece from earlier in week, testing temperature there
https://twitter.com/SarahRosemary3/status/1466564307211231239
Lewis Goodall's live tweeting here
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1466562391345299458
Jon Craig now saying result nearer to 2am
3-5K majority for Cons - Craig expects. Massively reduced. 'Slender'
Disgruntled voters maybe voting for fringe RW candidates (incl Reform/Tice) or stay home
(Tory topline comms on this by-elec is to attack KS for not campaigning here.)
3-5K majority for Cons - Craig expects. Massively reduced. 'Slender'
Disgruntled voters maybe voting for fringe RW candidates (incl Reform/Tice) or stay home
(Tory topline comms on this by-elec is to attack KS for not campaigning here.)
From Lab's point of view, Lab will have to do better than Corbyn did here in last General Election.
Expert on Sky (Michael Thrasher?) says while sleaze is prob not the cause of low TO, overall distrust in Poltx cld be the reason.
Expert on Sky (Michael Thrasher?) says while sleaze is prob not the cause of low TO, overall distrust in Poltx cld be the reason.
Richard Tice Reform is being interviewed on Sky now
He says the TO for Cons is a 'disaster' He claims he's come 3rd & has ' we have planted a flag here'
Interviewer Jon Craig trying to get a word in.
RT is saying that BJohnson is now toast
RT saying democ is collapsing (low TO)
He says the TO for Cons is a 'disaster' He claims he's come 3rd & has ' we have planted a flag here'
Interviewer Jon Craig trying to get a word in.
RT is saying that BJohnson is now toast
RT saying democ is collapsing (low TO)
Tice claiming he's going to stand 600 candidates at next GE ( Lab 2nd)
Tice claiming a win, 3rd! Says this will be a 'springboard' for the Shropshire by election next for his party.
Tice mentioning Macron's comment 'clown' & is claiming voters recognised this on doorstep.
Tice claiming a win, 3rd! Says this will be a 'springboard' for the Shropshire by election next for his party.
Tice mentioning Macron's comment 'clown' & is claiming voters recognised this on doorstep.
Deputy Chair Justin Tomlinson (CCHQ) also using spin line that Lab clearly have nothing to offer if KS is not attending to campaign & also giving disenfranchised Tories nowhere else to go. Lol
PS this was a very Brexitty seat in 2016
PS this was a very Brexitty seat in 2016
LDs & Greens have lost their deposits
Waiting for the result
PS Justin Tomlinson seems to want to attack KS or maybe he also wants Lab supporters to attack KS as part of a backlash for coming 2nd
Waiting for the result
PS Justin Tomlinson seems to want to attack KS or maybe he also wants Lab supporters to attack KS as part of a backlash for coming 2nd
Thrasher says CCHQ wont be pleased with:
Cons swing 10.2% ( BJ would lose his seat)
Good result for Lab
Good result for Tice
2nd lowest TO for a Cons seat in a by-elec, ever
Re Shropshire - splitting of vote LDs & Lab is a big issue. Harder seat for Cons too, compared to Bexley
Cons swing 10.2% ( BJ would lose his seat)
Good result for Lab
Good result for Tice
2nd lowest TO for a Cons seat in a by-elec, ever
Re Shropshire - splitting of vote LDs & Lab is a big issue. Harder seat for Cons too, compared to Bexley
Thrasher thinks Tice also will damage the Cons share in Shropshire, next.
Cons voters disillusioned w party or leader, in Thrashers' view.
TO = a record low in a Cons seat in post war period
Cons voters disillusioned w party or leader, in Thrashers' view.
TO = a record low in a Cons seat in post war period
Mike Thrasher on Sky: Lab have really closed the gap on the Cons, compared to Corbyn led 2019
Thrasher also says that the Tories will have some difficulty spinning this loss of vote share
Thrasher also says that the Tories will have some difficulty spinning this loss of vote share
really good point here re informal non agg pacts
'not enough to mine'
'not enough to mine'
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1466590498752122884
Ellie Reeves pretending there was no discreet non agg pact with the LDs here.
'But neither of the main 2 parties will be celebrating too hard this weekend as there is just enough to worry each of them.'
'However, the LDs will be quietly continuing to dream of an unlikely victory in Shropshire'
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
'However, the LDs will be quietly continuing to dream of an unlikely victory in Shropshire'
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
edit line 5
Thrasher later clarified....' in post war period'
Thrasher later clarified....' in post war period'
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