Thread by @RadCentrism

🧵
1/ We MUST start a conversation about "data bros / broettes."

These are people who subscribe to a kind of idiot-version of Humean empiricism. They have zero grasp of deduction/abduction, and they genuinely believe it is impossible to predict real outcomes without "The Data."

2/ For those don't know, here's a quick summary of deduction, induction, and abduction before we get into the weeds.

It's important to understand HOW we generally think and reason before we discuss WHAT we think and reason.
merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/…

3/ Next, here's a great overview of Hume (who was a genius), if you don't know what I mean by "idiot-version of Humean empiricism":
plato.stanford.edu/entries/induct…

4/ Empiricism, and indeed ANY inductive framework, is a great way to test and confirm science.

BUT it's a horrible way to anticipate future outcomes for which there is *obviously* no data yet (it cannot sufficiently save lives from NOVEL threats...).

https://twitter.com/RadCentrism/status/1464771661421371394

5/ The prevailing inductive paradigm in medicine is EBM, "evidence-based medicine."

Here's an overview, with some critiques:
…alth-policy-systems.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

6/ One concept that's been discussed among Covid interlocutors as an antidote or alternative to our overly-inductive scientific paradigms is the "Precautionary Principle":
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautio…

7/ Importantly, medicine is not the only science (or science-based) field that is suffering from this rise of hyper-induction. The phenomenon is EVERYWHERE.

The video below mocks it rather well, but unfortunately its implications are no laughing matter:

https://twitter.com/Kenroque3/status/1452461057788817409

8/ In fact, I posit a rather controversial thesis below.

I believe those who are intellectually courageous and who are willing to consider *fully* the causes of our ever-rising Covid body count will ultimately arrive at the same conclusion:

https://twitter.com/RadCentrism/status/1435318097473196033

9/ A visual explanation of "data bros" in this #TimeofDeltaAndOmicron:

Data Bros, if Independence Day happened tomorrow:

"There's still no evidence that the aliens mean us harm. Everyone saying otherwise is just fear-mongering."

10/ Data Bros: "Okay, look. There was NO way to know that the aliens were going to blow up the Empire State Building. Now that we DO have the data, it's only a sample size of n=1! There's NO evidence yet that the aliens are going to engage in regular destruction. Keep calm."

11/Data Bros: "Still only n=2!!! If you're risk-averse, you can start taking reasonable precautions, but look...it takes time for data and science to come in. And, from a public policy standpoint, panicking when there's SO LITTLE DATA is neither scientific nor prudent!"

12/ Seriously though: how can we fix this ossified data-bro paradigm crippling the human species' ability to think and neutralize novel threats?

In the short-term, let's use our deductive/abductive capabilities. Let's REASON from known mechanisms:

https://twitter.com/RadCentrism/status/1435335582444523522

13/ In the long-term, let's please fix education (medical...scientific...ALL OF IT) and help people reach their full potential.

As Booker T. Washington said, "There is no defence or security for any of us except in the highest intelligence and development of all."