Thread by @tylerblack32

Full Subgroup Analysis, US Suicides 2020
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2020's effect on suicide can now be analysed thanks to @CDCgov at the yearly level. Very shortly I'll be able to look monthly as well.

This is the whole US population, but we can now do subgroups. /1

The big headline: Children 10-14 did NOT have a significant increase in suicides. It was well within expected rate variability. Error bars shown.

Because of small #'s, the rate changes can be drastic.

The 2020 increase was less than '00, '04, '07, '09, '13, '14, '17 and '18 /2

In other words, no evidence that the "lockdown" phase of the pandemic caused more child suicides, and no evidence that 2020 was associated with a significant increase in child suicides. /3

For men, 2020 saw a decrease (-2.2%), continuing the decrease seen in 2019. /4

For women, 2020 saw a much larger decrease (-8.3%). /5

It's the 2nd largest change in female suicide rates in the US in 50 years! /6

Hey remember when all those American outlets picked up the news that suicides "increased for women in Japan?" Thousands of stories. This data about women in the US has been out a month, how many stories have you seen? Yay, media. /7

I'll now break things down by race, and for comparison's sake I am keeping the Y axis the same (0 to 30 suicides per 100,000), so you can also compare racial rates to each other. /8

(Non-Hispanic) White Americans had a very large decrease in suicide rates, the largest seen in 21 years. White women had a much larger decrease (-10%) than the men (-3%). /9

Indigenous (CDC Alaska Native or American Indian) people had a small increase in suicide rates in 2020, and the gender difference here was significant. The diff b/w white (-4.6%) & Indigenous (+6%) is quite large, and I feel represents a significant difference as well. /10

It should be noted that Indigenous suicide counts may be underestimated due to procedural issues with death coding, so this rate might be even higher.

The gender difference between Indigenous men (+5%) and women (-4%) was large. /11

(Non-Hispanic) Black Americans had an increase in the suicide rate in 2020, again separating strongly (9% difference) from white Americans. The rate increase was not as high as in many years.

Black women had a small decrease (-3%) while Black men had an increase (+8%) /12

Asian Americans (CDC: "Asian American or Pacific Islander) had a decrease of about 10%, and there was no significant gender differences. /13

I cannot reconcile a discrepancy in the CDC Rapid release for 2020 (which has Asian American 2019 deaths at 1342, and CDC wonder at 1548.) Because I trust CDC Wonder more, and know how to use it, I used this number, but it might have exaggerated the drop in 2020. /14

Hispanic Americans had a slight increase in suicide rates in 2020, and there was a large gender discrepancy, with men having an increase (+5%) and women having a decrease (-7%). This is the largest gender divide, by race. /15

The top line is reassuring for a "large pandemic effect", but there is evidence (and in a month I will be able to dive deeper) that there were significant racial differences between white and Asian (decreased) and Black, Indigenous, and Hispanic Americans (increased).

Fin. /16