Kintsugi Investing Profile picture
Dec 6, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:
1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key
2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.
3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!
4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.
5. Extend your time horizon to see what's truly important

When you look years out, instead of next quarter:

• You place less emphasis on hiccups and fluctuations.

• You don't focus on what 99% of other analysts look at (guidance, beats).

This helps you think more clearly.
6. Dig below the numbers

Not everything that is in numbers gives you the full story.

The real returns are made from great business quality.

Many factors like psychology and customer love are what determines the longevity of the business.

Look beyond the financial statements!
7. Mentally prepare for speed bumps and ugly numbers

Learn to discern between:

Short term speed bumps VS. fundamental problems in the business.

Franchise value can still be firmly intact, even if the company is going through a rough patch.
8. Pick the easy fights

He looks for layup type of investments, basically those that are easy.

Simple to understand.

In this business, there are no bonus points for doing backflips and somersaults in the air.

K.I.S.S!!!
RECAP:

1. Adopt a mindset for longevity
2. Stay within your circle of competence
3. Embrace volatility as a gift
4. Avoid noise and news
5. Extend your time horizon
6. Dig below the numbers
7. Mentally prepare for speed bumps
8. Pick the easy fights
If you like this, follow me here at @heymaxkoh

I share how I crossed 7 figures before age 30, and achieved my own version of financial freedom.

Stuff I tweet about:

• My investing strategy
• Books that inspire me
• How I built high income skills i.e. public speaking

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More from @kintsugiinvest

Apr 18
Everyone says “buy the dip.”

Until the market crashes 30%.

Then most freeze, panic, or quit.

Here’s the truth about buying the dip (and why almost no one actually does it):🧵
Buying a 5% dip?
That’s easy.
Feels like a bargain.

Buying a 30% dip?
That’s terrifying.

It feels like the world is ending—and your portfolio with it.
The deeper the dip, the louder the fear.

Your feed will be filled with “this time is different.”

And you know what?

They’re right.

Every crash is different.

But the fear is always the same.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 11
Nobody knew Lehman would collapse.

Nobody knew Covid would shut down the world.

Nobody knows what Trump’s tariffs will do now.

But when uncertainty reigns, great investors don’t freeze — they act.

Howard Marks’ latest memo breaks down exactly how: 🧵 Image
1. The best time to invest is when chaos reigns and others are frozen.

In 2008, most investors panicked.

Marks put $10B to work in deeply discounted distressed debt — while everyone else waited for “clarity.”
2. Honest ignorance beats false confidence.

In 2008, Marks wrote Nobody Knows just four days after Lehman’s collapse.

He made it clear: he didn’t know what would happen next — but he had to act on logic, not fear.
Read 22 tweets
Apr 9
Warren Buffett once said:

“You’ve got to be prepared for your stocks to drop 50%—and be comfortable with it.”

Investors quote it.
But few TRULY live by it.

Here are his 13 principles to navigate brutal markets: 🧵 Image
1. Volatility is not risk

Buffett defines risk differently than Wall Street.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

A falling stock price doesn’t make a business worse. It just makes it cheaper—if you understand it.
2. When the market is choppy, read—don’t react

Buffett reads more when things feel uncertain.

It slows the mind, sharpens thinking, and keeps you rational.

“The more you learn, the more you earn.”

Reading prepares you to spot opportunity, not fear it.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 8
Howard Marks just spoke on Bloomberg.

Not to panic.
Not to predict.

But to explain how Liberation Day reshapes the rules of investing.

Here are my distilled insights:🧵 Image
1) The world isn’t ending.

But the rules are changing.

For decades, investors benefited from one major tailwind: globalization.

Trade was open. Supply chains were efficient. Goods were cheap.

That tailwind is fading.
2) Instead, we’re entering an era of fragmentation.

Countries are rethinking trade.
Tariffs are rising.

Domestic production is being prioritized—even if it’s more expensive.

That has real consequences for economies, inflation, and asset prices.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 5
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg.

Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.

But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.

Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵 Image
1) The world isn’t ending.

But the rules are changing.

For decades, investors benefited from one major tailwind: globalization.

Trade was open. Supply chains were efficient. Goods were cheap.

That tailwind is fading.
2) Instead, we’re entering an era of fragmentation.

Countries are rethinking trade.
Tariffs are rising.

Domestic production is being prioritized—even if it’s more expensive.

That has real consequences for economies, inflation, and asset prices.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 16
"Give me $1 million, and I’ll turn it into 50% returns a year. Guaranteed."

In his early years, Warren Buffett often hit 50%.

But his strategy back then was nothing like today’s.

I studied his letters from 1959-1969. Here’s what I found: 🧵 Image
Before execution, Buffett sorted every opportunity into one of four categories:

• Generals – Private Owner Basis
• Workouts
• Control Situations
• Generals – Relatively Undervalued

Here's what each category entails:
1) Generals – Private Owner Basis

Buffett didn’t buy stocks—he bought businesses.

He focused on:
✓ Strong earnings power
✓ High returns on capital
✓ Durable competitive advantage

These were quality companies trading below intrinsic value:
Read 25 tweets

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