We grew up in a very competitive field. Online environments have more dead startups than alive. We zoomed past startups 10x our size and capitalization, and we thrive despite incumbents many orders of magnitude larger than us.
We do it while rarely thinking about competition.
First, an axiom: humans are memetic creatures.
Remember how every startup was a chatbot startup a few years ago? Or a more recent example: Metaverse. Facebook renamed to Meta and two days later Microsoft announced their Metaverse strategy. I'm sure IBM is working on it too.
So by default, humans will get stuck in an ever increasing copying cycle. I call this the Metagame, it's much comfortable to exist in it instead of playing the real game, one where you're judged by users and the market -- not by your peers.
When you obsess over other companies, you ignore the only thing that matters: The customer.
Companies who are customer obsessed will naturally do things differently because they won’t be moved by hype and noise.
Customer obsession is necessary but not sufficient. Ford famously said that if he only listened to his customers they would’ve asked for faster horses. This is true. To invent the future you need customer input but you also need to think differently, to think radically.
At Replit we always ask ourselves "what's the radical thing to do here?" a question that forces you to think from first principles. We are okay with being short-term wrong as long as we're aligning with where we think the future is headed.
Which brings me to longterm thinking. At Replit, we don't think in quarters, we think in years. We know that the investments we make today won't show up in our numbers for another year or two, and we're okay with that.
Finally, if you align with the future, make sure to try to influence your peers to bring it about faster. When we made a contrarian bet on Nix we didn't just sit around and hope people understood. We've been evangelizing it. blog.replit.com/nix-vs-docker
It's more fun to invent the future. It's great to get inspired by each other -- and we love our peers who inspire us to be better -- but also make sure to listen to your customers, think from first principles, and be longterm focused 🙂
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A new kind of program analysis is emerging: AI code analysis. Here is the current state of analysis and where I think it’s headed:
Static analysis, arguably a Good Old Fashion type of AI, it relies on explicit “reasoning” about the program using tree search and other algorithmic methods.
It’s painfully limited because it’s an ultimately undecidable problem. Eg, try proving that a program never halts.
To make code more analyzable there has been a trend to push the programmer to do more of the work. People are adding typing to all the dynamic languages: JavaScript, Python, Ruby.
As an early employee, I saw how painful startups were, in both success & failure.
Replit was forcing itself unto the world; it was no longer sustainable as a side project.
Before incorporating, here are all the ways we tried *not* to:
I tried to make it a project at Facebook where I worked.
I was careful in separating the two but when it became a big time and money sink, I told my boss. We tried to find a home for it but there was just no appeal.
I even emailed Zuck. No response. Time to move on.
I tried to merge it with two other startups at the time doing similar things.
Ultimately we had different visions for the future, and I didn’t think they were being ambitious enough.
AWS operated for 7 years without any competition. That's a hallmark of a non-obvious invention. If you watch early AWS pitch, even Amazon didn't know what it really was.
See this video (timestamped). The pitch was similar to @paulg's ViaWeb: "create your own store."