Thread by @Olivia_Gazis

"We don’t know that Putin has made up his mind to use force but what we do know is that he’s putting the Russian military…in a place where they could act in a pretty sweeping way," CIA Director Bill Burns says at #WSJCEOCouncil

"I would never underestimate President Putin's risk appetite on Ukraine," Burns says, adding this winter "he may see a more favorable landscape with major European allies who are, in his eyes, distracted with the transition" - citing Merkel's departure and French elections

For Putin to act militarily is not "a foregone conclusion at all," Burns says. "That's why it's so important to respond to that with a pretty strong mix of deterrence as well as the possibility of diplomacy."

Burns says China's Xi Jinping is "determined to be the dominant power in Asia, determined...to become a co-equal power alongside the United States and shaping international rules of the road as well as the international landscape to suit the Chinese leadership's preferences"

"We're not sure" at CIA about a potential timeline of Chinese military action vis Taiwan, Burns says. "I do think the further you get into this decade, the greater the risk...of a potential use of force"

"The Iranians have not been taking the negotiation seriously at this point," Burns says of ongoing nuclear talks. "We'll see soon enough about how serious they are."

CIA doesn't "see any evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader has made a decision to move to weaponize," he says

Burns: "The jury is still out" on whether Putin will crack down on cyberattacks.

Putin "in my experience has never been shy about asserting his control over his own territory and yet you have some pretty..risk-taking cyber criminal gangs clearly operating off Russian territory"

"We need to transform our operational tradecraft," Burns says of ubiquitous surveillance, "something CIA has succeeded in doing in previous eras where we were challenged technologically."

"We are not in a defensive crouch today."

CIA Director Burns: "If you want to understand the mindset and the calculus of some very complicated foreign leaders, you're still going to need that human intelligence"

Burns: "I think space is going to be hugely significant as you look...at the future of warfare."

"Russian & Chinese development in anti-satellite weapons is something that really should be a source of pretty serious concern for us...We're going to have to work hard at this one"