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Dec 7, 2021 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
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More from @bauhiniacapital

Apr 26
Let's start from the back end. "Tell me why I am wrong."

OK. Fair. Here is why you are wrong. A 🧵:

Bill, your assumptions are, well, assumptions.

The first assumption is that this is a trade war between the US and China. That is wrong.

To my knowledge, Donald Trump has
broken EVERY SINGLE trade agreement which was in place between the US and other countries, before him or which he, himself, signed, including USMCA which was "maybe the greatest deal ever done."

Donald Trump has, for decades, been a fan of tariffs. He ran on it. He put tariffs
on allies. He put tariffs on Australia, which has zero tariffs on the US and with which the US runs a trade surplus. He demands tariff cuts from Japan which runs lower average tariffs on US goods than the US used to run on its imports. He put tariffs on penguins.
Read 34 tweets
Apr 18
The proposed USTR schedules for port fees are out.

For Chinese/HK/Macau owner/operators (not necessarily of Chinese vessels) Image
For foreign (non-US) owners of Chinese vessels:

with exceptions: Image
Image
TLDR;
For Chinese owner/operators of vessels...

for a standard 12,000 TEU container ship (~60-70k Net tonnes),

$50/Net Tonne (or NRT) that is US$3mm per trip to the US or US$250/TEU

rising to US$140/NT or US$8.4mm or US$700/TEU starting in 3yrs.

and... Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 8
Just getting around to the USTR Section 301 hearings on the Proposed Action in Section 301 Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance.

Like the USTR report released in Jan, it is something of a disaster. 500+ pgs of it.
There are people who support (politicians, labour unions, ports, dockworkers, steel companies, etc).

They almost all use the same talking points from the USTR report which were... wrong. They were factually incorrect in the USTR report and they were the same, or worse in the
hearings. The common trope is that shipbuilding 50 years ago was such that the US was the dominant global shipbuilder, and shipbuilders once employed X number of people. This was destroyed by CCP policies to achieve dominance in shipbuilding, and those policies started in 2006. Image
Read 26 tweets
Apr 8
The problem with Miran’s argument is shown in his own quote.

If two non-US countries TRADE with a USD price, and they do not tariff each other, then it is frictionless. The US does not collect 10% via tariffs.

I’ve been through this before but a reserve currency is not so
because people trade using a dollar denominated price. It is based on where the end profit is allocated to as savings.

If a European company buys 1mm bbl of oil from Aramco, first EUCo uses Euro to buy USD. Gives to Aramco who gives it to Shipper (who EUCo has also paid USD)
And a couple weeks later, EUCo takes delivery in, say, Hamburg. They pay euros to unload it, spend euros to operate their refinery, spend euros to transport diesel to a factory using a backup diesel generator. That company buys the diesel in euros, then burns it, making power
Read 13 tweets
Apr 6
@BlankBl23041510 @Citrini7 1) I don't think the market believes they will last as set.
2) There are many paths.
3) One path is simply a LOT lower consumption.
4) Over even a medium-term, if the system put in place has permanence of intention, it leads to capital controls (i.e. lower real yields)
@BlankBl23041510 @Citrini7 but basically, if you have partial or full capital controls and lower real yields, that's simply financial repression by the state - financed by low returns on capital and less choice.

To get from A to B, there are a finite number of outlets and offsets.
@Citrini7 Americans consume less (because they save more). They produce more to consume what they cut off from the outside world. Jobs which were related to consumption become jobs related to production. All fine. The savings finance the part of the govt deficit no longer financed by
Read 24 tweets
Apr 6
@Citrini7 Ask yourself what you think a reserve currency is.

Is it the fact of a stock of financial assets in a currency?

Or is it a propensity to have a flow?

If the trade deficit (flow) immediately goes to zero, the stock remains unchanged.

Other flows shift. Americans net save.
@Citrini7 Americans consume less (because they save more). They produce more to consume what they cut off from the outside world. Jobs which were related to consumption become jobs related to production. All fine. The savings finance the part of the govt deficit no longer financed by
@Citrini7 foreign flows, but until the budget deficit falls to the level of the current trade deficit, there’s an excess which has to be funded by someone (as a flow). If that is funded by foreigners, you still have the same ‘reserve currency’ ownership of stock AND new inflows ‘problem.’
Read 24 tweets

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