Thread by @CRPTO_33

What drives $OHM price fluctuations?... A thread

#1/18 As you may know, I am obsessed with understanding @OlympusDAO $OHM valuation…

#2/18 I already posted some analysis on the subject… here they are

https://twitter.com/CRPTO_33/status/1457721952743866374

https://twitter.com/CRPTO_33/status/1463174224412033035

https://twitter.com/CRPTO_33/status/1467938912014319616

#3/18 $OHM valuation = $OHM price x $OHM quantity…. This time I will focus on the price component.

#4/18 I think I found one of the most interesting correlations, here it is: $OHM price moves in sync with changes in the speed of increase of net stakers

#5/18 The increase of net stakers is the number of new stakers (people joining the system) less the number of unstakers (people leaving the system)

#6/18 Many will say this is kind of obvious… $OHM price is the result of the interaction between demand and supply… Ha! … and that is true

#7/18 But I could actually measure it and found a concrete, measurable and ACTIONABLE? (more ahead) variable that has an impact on $OHM price

#8/18 The right axis of the graph (orange line) shows the daily increase in the number of net $OHM stakers… when that number goes up from one day to the other, $OHM price usually goes up. In other words: when the incorporation of net $OHM stakers accelerate, $OHM price goes up

#9/18 When the daily increase in the number of $OHM stakers remains constant, $OHM price remains constant… that's what happened during October… net stakers increased at around 1,000 per day, and price fluctuated around $1,000

#10/18 When there is a daily decrease in that variable, meaning the incorporation of net new $OHM stakers slows down… $OHM price goes down. That is what happened during November

#11/18 …just an idea… what can @OlympusDAO do with that??? (I hope @ohmzeus and @Apollo_OHM_DAO see this thread)

#12/18 Again… the net change in $OHM stakers is the net amount of people entering the system(new stakers), and people abandoning the system (lost stakers)

#13/18 We can not force people to stay in $OHM… if they don't want to be part (temporarily or permanently) of this awesome group of Ohmies that is creating the reserve currency of DeFi… it's their choice. We will welcome them back if they decide to return

#14/18 … but I believe @OlympusDAO can do A LOT MORE to attract new Ohmies to the system. We know from the chart above that if the speed of incorporation of net new Ohmies accelerate, price will go up. As a consequence market cap will go up, and all Ohmies will be happier.

#15/18 … @OlympusDAO has the resources to do world-class marketing work: USD 786 million treasury as I write this and daily revenues of around USD 6 million.

#16/18 I believe investing a small portion of @OlympusDAO revenues in marketing in order to speed up the growth of the Ohmie base would be a great use of DAO resources, that will positively impact $OHM price.

#17/18 @OlympusDAO is a USD 3 billion organization now… I believe world-class marketing focused on incorporating ohmies FASTER will speed up our way to reaching whatever goal we can imagine (is USD 100b enough for now?)

#18/18 Finally I leave you with this excellent @MessariCrypto article that proposes that DAOs need to take a page from the startup playbook: Blitzscaling.

messari.io/article/blitzs…